To The Moon

On Fri, 25 Jul 2025 US stocks finished on a high note to close off the week.

The S&P 500 scoring a 5th straight record closing peak, likewise for Nasdaq.

All three major US equities benchmarks saw weekly gains, overall.

Market attributed Friday’s rally on optimism that US and EU, could soon reach a trade deal before the 01 Aug 2025, ‘deadline’.

When market closed on the last July 2025 weekend:

• DJIA: +0.47% (+208.01 TO 44,901.92).

• S&P 500: +0.40% (+25.29 TO 6,388.64).

• Nasdaq: +0.24% (+50.36 to 21,108.32).

US Economic Reports roundup.

Despite the week of 25 Jul 2025 does not have any “major” reports out, there were a few that’s more than ‘good to know’.

(1) US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI).

US Conference Board (CB), the LEI report provides an early indication of (a) significant turning points in the business cycle and (b) where the economy is heading in the near term.

• For June 2025, LEI declined by -0.3%, after an upwards revision to May 2025’s -0.1% to no change (0.0%).

• For H1 2025, LEI fell by -2.8%, a substantially faster rate of decline than H2 2024 -1.3% contraction.

Summary:

• The drop in June 2025 report means risk of an economic slowdown is rising, but a full recession is not expected soon.

• This indicator signals US economy will likely grow much more slowly in the coming months.

(2) Jobless Claims.

(a) Weekly jobless claims.

• For week ending 19 Jul 2025, US weekly jobless claims fell by -4,000 to 217,000 (from 221,000 the previous week). (see above)

• It is the lowest level since 17 Apr 2025 report and is showing continued strength compared to the previous week's data.

• FYI - the 4-week moving average was 224,500 — a decrease of 5,000 from previous week's unrevised average of 229,500.

(b) Continuing jobless claims.

However, the same could not be said for US continuing claims report. (see above)

• For week ending 12 Jul 2025, US continuing claims climbed by another +4,000 to 1,955K (from 1,951K the previous week).

• Report shows that more people are staying unemployed compared to the prior week.

(3) Flash S&P Manufacturing PMI.

• For July 2025 (preliminary), the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI fell sharply to a 7th month low 49.5. (see above)

• This is down from June 2025’s 37-month high of 52.9.

• Signaling a renewed deterioration of factory business conditions for the first time since December 2024.

Production growth slowed as new orders placed at factories fell for the first time this year.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Chief business economist, Chris Williamson:

• Contraction in manufacturing activity was the result of a “fading boost from tariff front-running”.

The week of 28 Jul 2025 to 01 Aug 2025, will be a busy one for US market as below events will take centrestage:

• US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.

• Trump’s 01 Aug 2025 deadline for reciprocal tariffs.

• Key data on US jobs, Economic growth and Inflation.

This Week’s Reports.

Pertinent US economic reports that investors would need to pay attention to.

• Tue, 29 Jul 2025 - Consumer confidence.

• Tue, 29 Jul 2025 - US Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs).

• Wed, 30 Jul 2025 - ADP non-farm payroll.

• Wed, 30 Jul 2025 - US Gross domestic product (GDP) prelminary for Q2 2025.**

• Wed, 30 Jul 2025 - FOMC meeting outcome.**

• Thu, 31 Jul 2025 - US weekly and continuing jobless claims.

• Thu, 31 Jul 2025 - US Personal consumption expenditure (June).**

• Fri, 01 Aug 2025 - US Non-farm payroll (July).**

Recaps.

Before the new set of reports are out, it is good to refresh one’s memory on some of them, that may sway US market sentiments.

(1) US Q1 2025 GDP (Final).

For Q1 2025, US’s GDP contracted at an annualized rate of -0.5%.

Weak GDP is a sign of slowing economic growth and could lead to (a) reduced hiring and (b) increased job insecurity in US labour market.

(2) CME Fedwatch (July 2025).

• According to the CME FedWatch Tool (as of 26 Jul 2025), the market assigns a 95.5% probability that the Fed will keep fed funds rate status quo at 4.25 - 4.50% range, at the July 2025 FOMC meeting.

• Expectations for a rate cut have shifted to September 2025 meeting, reflecting market consensus that easing will not occur in July 2025.

(3) US Personal consumption expenditure (PCE - May 2025).

Headline inflation.

• Thru May 2025, annual headline PCE inflation has generally moderated, sticking close to the Fed’s 2% target. (see above)

• This signals stable, modest price growth in consumer spending across the US economy. Headline PCE inflation is closely watched as the broadest gauge including all goods and services

Core inflation.

• Fed’s preferred inflation metric, Core PCE, has moved in a slightly higher range but remains relatively contained.

• It rose modestly in the spring as price pressures lingered in some service categories. Food and energy volatility have had limited impact in 2025, so far.

(4) US Jobs Market.

• US job growth was unexpectedly solid in June 2025.

• It increased by 147,000 jobs vs market consensus of 111,000 vs May 2025’s upwards revised 144,000 (from initial 139,000).

• However, nearly 50% of increase in nonfarm payrolls came from government sector.

• Private sector gains was the smallest in 8 months as businesses battled economic headwinds arising from the fallout of Trump’s tariffs.

Looking Ahead.

So far, the US stock market has demonstrated remarkable momentum and resilience, even as economic indicators point to slower growth and labour cooling.

Markets are weighing the benefits from strong earnings and potential trade breakthroughs against lingering risks from tariffs, legal battles, and still-stubborn inflation.

The week ahead is poised to be shaped by both (a) headline economic data and (b) outcome of pivotal trade negotiations, that could determine whether this record-setting rally continues into August 2025. Agree ?

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• Do you think US market will continue its rally into August 2025 ?

• Do you think US economic data dampen US market while trade deals will reverse it ?

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