To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 🔻🚗📉 Tesla’s Crossroads: Political Power, European Pain, and the Battle Below $309 📉🚗🔻

I’m extremely confident that Tesla is now sitting at a crucial inflection point where macro forces, technical structure, and political risk are finally converging. This isn’t just about a stock struggling under $309; it’s about the world’s most influential CEO dragging his company through algorithmic landmines, geopolitical backlash, and platform domination at a scale we’ve never seen.

IHS (Inverse Head & Shoulders) attempts keep getting swatted below the red resistance band at $309.20, and even with a $10 bounce to $307, Tesla still failed to reclaim the neckline. We’re grinding under a massive megaphone structure, with multiple failed reclaim attempts. The recent low of $297.82 came just shy of my long-standing $295.42 daily bottom target. And now, we’re wedged between volume shelf exhaustion and broader Keltner/Bollinger volatility compression.

The four-hour chart is even more revealing; Tesla’s now hugging Keltner channel lows, with rejection near $308.20 and heavy rejection candles inside the upper zone. That’s the battlefield. 304.31 is the immediate trigger zone. Lose that, and it’s lights out toward the daily base at $295.42. The entire bullish thesis gets invalidated if we break and close below 295 on volume.

📈 On the options desk, $2M in fresh net call premium just poured into the $345 strike for August 29 expiry, despite Tesla fading back under $306. That 28D OTM bet isn’t just a blind swing; it reflects conviction positioning around a potential late-August gamma squeeze if price regains footing above $322. Volume surged to 4,530 contracts, pushing OI to 1,340, with a 91% ask-side skew and IV spike to 50%. The premium’s being paid now, but the timing is speculative, and the range compression we’re in makes this setup even more binary.

But here’s what’s really different this time, and why this matters.

Tesla’s European EV performance is deteriorating fast. According to July registration data:

• Spain: +27.4% YoY (702 cars)

• Portugal: +9.5%

• Norway: +83.4%

• But…

• France: –27%

• Italy: –4.99%

• Sweden: –85.8%

• Denmark: –52%

While Southern Europe posted modest gains, core markets are crumbling, with Sweden’s plunge to just 163 units representing an 86% year-on-year collapse. Elon himself admitted that Europe faces “a few rough quarters”, citing regulatory drag on automated driving, and a delayed rollout of the lower-cost EV; now pushed into Q4.

I’m watching the impact of this politically too. Bloomberg, Reuters, and AP confirm what many feared: Musk has become the algorithm. By reshaping the X platform into a megaphone for hard-right politicians, he’s drawing backlash from leaders across Germany, France, Norway, Italy, and the EU Commission. The very jurisdictions that must approve robotaxi and FSD rollout are tightening their grip. Political backlash isn’t just an image problem; it’s a strategic threat to regulatory timelines and public contracts, especially as leaders pressure Brussels to investigate algorithmic bias and foreign interference.

I’m positioned cautiously as Tesla balances between:

• Hard support: $295.42, then $290 if that cracks

• Overhead traps: $308.2 (VWAP rejection), $315.17 (mid-level), $322.49, and $334.92

• Monthly top targets: $358.45, $370.44, and $377.97; but only if Tesla breaks and holds $335+ on strong breadth and macro tailwinds

Tesla’s product roadmap is no longer enough to defend price. The brand risk Musk now carries, through X, populist affiliations, and digital regulation exposure, could become an even larger valuation compression story than competition from BYD or macro slowdown alone.

I’m holding back from sizing into any aggressive long unless we reclaim $309.20+ with volume, confirm $315.17+, and invalidate the H&S risk. Otherwise, this remains a bear-biased structure with gamma flow capping upside and political headlines accelerating downside vol.

These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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