To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 04Aug25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, America or Hong Kong.

Observations

• The S&P Global Services PMI forecast of 55.2 indicates an expectation of growth in the service sector.

• This aligns with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which previously stood at 50.8, also signalling expansion.

• However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices index at 67.5 suggests significant inflationary pressure within the non-manufacturing sector.

• In the bond market, a 10-year note option previously at 4.362% and a 30-year bond auction previously at 4.889% are key reference points. If these bond rates continue to rise, it could lead to an outflow of funds from equities and into bonds.

• Initial Jobless Claims should be closely watched after the job numbers revision last Friday spooked the market.

• Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.

Earnings Calendar (04Aug25)

Some of the earnings of interest include Palantir, DuPont, Pfizer, Uber, Tyson, AMD, McDonald’s, Disney, and Berkshire Hathaway.

Let us look at Walt Disney.

Technical Analysis recommends a “Strong Sell” whereas the Analysts’ Sentiment suggests a “Buy”. With a price target of $129.89, there is an upside price of 11.41%.

Observations:

• Between 2015 and 2024, Disney's revenue increased significantly, rising from $52.4 billion to $91.3 billion.

• Despite this growth, operating profit declined from $13.2 billion to $11.9 billion over the same period, with a notable dip to $3.79 billion in 2020 due to the pandemic before a subsequent recovery.

• Earnings per share (EPS) also decreased, falling from $4.90 in 2015 to $2.72 in 2024, after reaching a peak of $8.36 in 2018.

• As of 2024, Disney's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 24.0. The company's 10-year median free cash flow (FCF) margin is 7.4%, and its debt-to-assets ratio is a healthy 0.2.

The market expects an EPS of $1.45 and revenue of $23.7B for the coming earnings.

The debt situation and quiet Las Vegas are bringing concerns about tourism within the USA, following a drop in international visitors. Based on the above data, I prefer to monitor Disney for now. There is a lack of convincing data that propels me to invest in Disney.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (05Aug25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - the top crossover is completed, which implies a downtrend.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. The lines are converging, which represents a potential reversal of the current uptrend.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.03, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. We have noted a decline in buying momentum and a few days of (stronger) selling momentum.

The S&P 500 index grew 14.53% from a year ago.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index is recommending a “Neutral” rating. 8 indicators show a “Buy” rating and 11 show a “Sell” rating based on the daily interval.

From the most recent completed candlestick patterns, we are expecting a bearish outlook.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (from Grok)

• Short-Term Outlook (August 4–8, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to continue its bearish trend into the coming week, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns. The price could test support at 5,629.83 (50 MA) or drop further to 5,500 if selling pressure intensifies. Potential scenarios include:

  Bearish Case: A continued decline below 5,629.83 with high volume, possibly forming a Three Black Crows pattern, targeting 5,500 or lower.

  Neutral Case: Stabilization around 5,620.19 or 5,629.83, with a Doji or small-bodied candle indicating consolidation.

  Bullish Reversal Case: A bounce from 5,629.83 with a bullish pattern (e.g., Hammer) and increasing volume, signaling a recovery toward 5,672.33 or 5,796.34.

• Long-Term Outlook: The trend is bearish, with the S&P 500 entering a correction phase that could mirror the early 2025 decline from 6,000 to 5,345.01. The current price of 5,620.19 below the 200 MA (5,796.34) and 50 MA (5,629.83) supports this outlook, with a potential retest of 5,345.01 if bearish momentum persists.

• Actionable Insight: For the coming week, maintain a bearish bias. Monitor the price action around 5,629.83 (50 MA); a break below with high volume would favor a decline toward 5,500. A bounce with a bullish candlestick (e.g., mid-week August 6–7) and rising volume could indicate a reversal toward 5,672.33 or 5,796.34. Check daily patterns and volume trends, as the monthly candle’s close on July 31 (already passed) confirmed the Evening Star, and the next weekly close (August 8) will provide further clarity.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a bearish long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 is in a correction phase following its recent high, with potential for further downside unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.

Combining the inputs, can this be the reversal that is due? Will the bear run continue into the coming week? I suspect so.

News and my thoughts from the past week (04Aug25)

Days like today make it clear that Bitcoin is not digital gold. We got bad economic news that sent gold and the Japanese yen up 2.2% and the euro up 1.5%. The NASDAQ went the other way, falling 2.2%. Bitcoin tanked 3%, tracking high-risk assets lower, not safe havens higher. - X user Peter Schiff

Wheat falls to its lowest price since May

US stock ownership is hyper-concentrated: The top 1% own 51% of household equities. The top 10% control 87%. The poorest 50% own only 1%. The wealth gap keeps widening, a built-in feature of the financial system that favors asset holders. - X user Global Markets Investor

President Trump gives an ULTIMATUM to big pharma companies, DEMANDING drug prices in America match the LOWEST cost anywhere else in the world. "If you REFUSE to step up, we'll deploy every tool to protect American families from continued abusive drug pricing practices." "Other nations have been freeloading for far too long and it is time they pay their fair share." "Americans are demanding lower drug prices and need them today." They have a deadline of Sept 29, 2025, before he sicks HHS Sec. Kennedy on them. - Fox News

Globalisation brings value & choice to consumers. Protectionism can stop this, and isolation is inflationary.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted this mistake. Now, he’s making a bet: Keep issuing cheap short-term debt and wait for interest rates to fall. But if rates stay high or rise? That bet backfires fast. - X user Stock Market News

This is why investing is so important. The US Dollar has devalued by a whopping 98.9% versus gold since 1971. The British Pound has lost 99.4% while the Euro would have lost 98.8% if existed since then. Fiat currencies are in a constant FREEFALL. - X user Global Markets Investor

Cargo theft is an epidemic - X user Craig Fuller

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The Fed's favourite inflation indicator, Core PCE, looks like it may have bottomed… Core PCE YoY: +2.8% vs 2.7% exp - X user Geiger Capital

US import (30 July 2025)

Roughly $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries—about one-third of all outstanding marketable debt and nearly 30% of U.S. GDP—will mature in 2025, and an estimated 55–60% of it falls due before July. - First National CA

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Currency debasement is not a bug — it’s a feature of the fiat system. Since Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971, not one of 152 countries has kept average inflation below 2%. Even Switzerland, the best performer, averaged 2.2%. Fiat money is in an eternal bear market. - X user Global Markets Investor

United Airlines flight attendants reject contract with immediate raises of at least 26% - CNBC

Germany is heading into a DEBT SPIRAL: Germany is projected to run deficits of over 4% of GDP annually through 2032. That would mark the largest and longest sustained deficits in post-war history. Who’s going to absorb all this new debt? Is QE from the ECB back on the table? - X user Global Markets Investor

My Investing Muse (04Aug25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• US small farmers are facing a CRISIS: US small farm bankruptcies hit 173 in the H1 2025, the highest since the 2020 CRISIS. Up ~150% in 2 years. High interest rates, trade tensions, and collapsing Chinese demand are crushing farm margins. X user Global Markets Investor

• SINGAPORE: A growing number of businesses are going belly up in Singapore, with more companies being liquidated in the first half of 2025 than in the same period in the last five years. From January to June this year, 187 firms were forced by the courts to wind up. This is up from 146 in the same period last year and 95 the year before, according to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Law. - CNA

• San Francisco tech company Wag, once worth $650 million, files for bankruptcy. The pet care company, as of Monday, was valued at less than $6 million - SF Gate

• By the way, if the initial report from the government was that 70,000 jobs were added in July. That really means that -300,000 jobs were lost in July. We get a revision next month for -150,000 and then another revision at the end of the year for another -150,000. Flat out recession. Don’t let anyone gaslight you. - X user Spencer Hakimian

• In the news below (8Days), Singapore's Michelin restaurants did not survive. If it is not the quality, is the cost the issue?

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Closure / bankruptcy - Carroll Fulmer

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

Real Estate

BlackStone fire selling investment properties. Purchased for $515,000, paying over market in 2022. Now listed for UNDER $400k Sold for $340k in 2005 - X user Darth Powell

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Phoenix, Arizona home prices per square foot are absolutely collapsing! Now down 9.2% since MARCH! - X user Darth Powell

Las Vegas is dead. I have never seen the parking garage at the airport this empty and I did not see another person until I made it to the TSA PreCheck line in the terminal. - X user Jake Broe

Delinquency

Here is some news on delinquency.

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Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2011 Buckle up. - X user Bravos Research

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Delinquencies for high-income borrowers in the US are SURGING: Auto loan and credit card delinquencies (30+ days) from Americans making at least $150,000 annually have risen nearly 20% over the last 2 years. This is faster than for middle- and lower-income borrowers. - X user Global Markets Investor

My final thoughts

The amount of US Margin Debt has reached a record of $1.0 trillion, and we are expecting this amount to surge.

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The level of GREED has hit historic levels: US margin debt rose $87 BILLION in June and has surpassed $1.0 TRILLION for the first time EVER. In the past, spikes like this occurred near major corrections, in 1999 or 2007. People are borrowing to buy stocks as NEVER before. - X user Global Markets Investor

Should there be a correction, we can expect a good chunk of margin calls. This should send a market sales spiral that takes out “stop losses” on its way down. Of course, there is a good chance that I am wrong on this.

We need to avoid leverage and margin to hold on to good companies. How investing market landscape change? Will America remain the preferred destination for global investing funds? Can people turn to other markets, assets and instruments?

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Do we need to revisit “The Big Short” movie again? Let us consider some hedging.

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us conduct our due diligence before taking on any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Walt Disney(DIS)$

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$