To The Moon

CoreWeave’s ( $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ ) meteoric 250% rise since its March 2025 IPO has investors on edge as Q2 earnings loom on August 12, 2025. The AI cloud powerhouse plans $20-$23 billion in 2025 capex but has only secured $5 billion in debt financing—how it bridges this gap will be the earnings spotlight. SoundHound AI ( $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ ) surged 21% post-earnings on August 7, but CoreWeave faces a massive lock-up expiration (83% of Class A shares unlocked) right after, potentially flooding the market. Is this a SoundHound-style rally in the making, or a prime SELL CALL opportunity? This deep dive explores CoreWeave’s earnings outlook, lock-up risks, SoundHound comparison, and strategic investment approaches to navigate this high-stakes moment.

CoreWeave’s Earnings Preview: Filling the Capex Gap

CoreWeave’s Q2 2025 earnings, due August 12, 2025, are a critical test. Analysts expect revenue of $1.2 billion (up 200% YoY) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $300 million, improving from Q1’s $450 million loss, per Yahoo Finance. The $20-$23 billion capex plan for AI infrastructure—data centers and Nvidia GPUs—dwarfs its $5 billion debt financing, raising questions about equity raises or partnerships. Key metrics to watch:

• Revenue Breakdown: AI cloud services (80% of Q1 revenue at $800 million) and enterprise deals with Nvidia and Microsoft.

• Profitability Path: Adjusted EBITDA margin expected at -25% (improving from -40% in Q1), driven by scale efficiencies.

• Guidance: Q3 revenue forecast of $1.5 billion (up 25% QoQ) and capex funding updates will be pivotal.

Citi analyst John Smith notes, “CoreWeave’s ability to secure financing without dilution is key; a clear plan could drive a 10-15% rally.” The stock’s RSI at 75 indicates overbought conditions, but a strong earnings beat could push it to $45-$50 from $40.

Lock-Up Expiry: A Tsunami of Shares?

CoreWeave’s lock-up expiration, set for August 13, 2025 (180 days post-IPO), unlocks 83% of Class A shares ( ~200 million shares at $40), potentially increasing float by 5x. This flood could pressure the stock, as seen with Circle’s 20% drop post-lock-up in May 2025. Key risks:

• Insider Selling: Founders and early investors (e.g., Nvidia) may cash out, adding supply.

• Market Impact: A 10-20% drop is possible if selling overwhelms demand, per Renaissance Capital.

• Mitigation: Strong earnings could absorb the pressure, as with SoundHound’s 21% surge post-Q2.

The lock-up is a SELL CALL opportunity for short-term traders, but long-term investors might view any dip as a buy.

SoundHound Comparison: Rally Blueprint or False Hope?

SoundHound AI’s Q2 2025 earnings on August 7 sparked a 21% surge to $13.07, with revenue of $42.7 million (up 217% YoY) and a raised 2025 outlook to $160-$178 million. CoreWeave, like SoundHound, is Nvidia-linked (GPU partnerships) and AI-focused (cloud infrastructure), but differences abound:

• Similarities: Both have high valuations (CoreWeave 50x P/S, SoundHound 40x) and growth (CoreWeave 200% YoY revenue, SoundHound 217%).

• Differences: CoreWeave’s $20-$23 billion capex gap is a funding challenge SoundHound doesn’t face, and its lock-up expiry adds supply pressure absent in SoundHound’s rally.

It seems likely that CoreWeave could rally like SoundHound if earnings clarify funding, but the lock-up risk makes a 10-15% post-earnings drop more probable.

Trading and Investment Strategies

Short-Term Plays

• Buy on Earnings Beat: Enter at $38-$40 post-earnings, target $45-$50, stop at $35. A 12-25% gain if capex funding is addressed.

• SELL CALL Post-Lock-Up: Sell $40 calls (September expiry) if lock-up floods supply, targeting 100-150% premium decay.

• Options Straddle: Buy $40 calls/puts (August expiry) for volatility, targeting 200-300% gains on a 10%+ move.

• Scalp Dip: Buy at $35-$37, sell at $42-$45, stop at $33. A 14-20% gain if earnings stabilize sentiment.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold CRWV: Buy at $35-$37, target $50-$60 by 2026, for 35-60% upside with AI cloud growth. Stop at $32 to limit losses.

• Diversify with XLK ETF: Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for tech exposure.

• Hold SOUN: Buy at $13-$13.50, target $16-$18 by 2026, for 18-38% upside with voice AI strength.

• Defensive Play: Buy Procter & Gamble (PG) at $165-$170, target $180-$190, for 6-12% upside with stability.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge lock-up or earnings volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously bullish on CoreWeave’s AI growth potential, seeing $45-$50 as achievable by Q4 2025 if earnings address funding gaps. I’ll buy CRWV at $38-$40 post-earnings, targeting $45-$50, with a $35 stop, and use a $40 call/put straddle for volatility. For diversification, I’ll add XLK at $200, targeting $220, with a $190 stop, and PG at $165-$170, targeting $180, with a $160 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash for dips if lock-up selling or tariffs escalate. I’ll monitor CoreWeave’s earnings call, funding updates, and tariff developments for cues.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

CoreWeave’s Q2 2025 earnings on August 12 and lock-up expiry on August 13 are a double-edged sword. The $20-$23 billion capex plan, with only $5 billion secured, is the key focus—if addressed, a SoundHound-style rally to $45-$50 is possible. However, the 83% share unlock could flood supply, leading to a 10-20% drop like Circle’s post-lock-up decline. The AI theme dominates earnings, with Nvidia-linked stocks surging, but tariff risks and August volatility (S&P 500 RSI 65) demand caution. Investors should buy on dips to $35-$37, use options for leverage, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage risks. CoreWeave’s rally could mirror SoundHound’s if funding gaps close—play it smart to win big.

Will you rally with CoreWeave or sell on the lock-up? Share your strategy below! 🎁

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