To The Moon

Pop Mart’s revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 13.876 billion, a staggering 204.4% increase year-on-year. The stock mirrored this momentum, surging in a straight rally to close at $319.8 today, hitting a record 52-week high today within a range of $39.935 to $324.6.

POP MART (09992)

Founder Wang Ning expressed optimism earlier this year, projecting 50% growth for Pop Mart. Last year, revenue hit RMB 10 billion, and the original target for 2025 was RMB 20 billion. Judging by the company’s stellar performance so far, Wang now believes RMB 30 billion is well within reach, effectively suggesting the growth trajectory is even steeper than anticipated.

The Blind Box Phenomenon

Central to Pop Mart's success is its innovative "blind box" model, where consumers purchase sealed boxes containing random collectible figures. This taps into the psychological allure of surprise and scarcity. The thrill of unboxing and chasing rare items has cultivated a dedicated global fanbase. The “Labubu” series, designed by artist Kasing Lung, stands out as a cultural phenomenon. Its unique “ugly-cute” aesthetic resonates deeply with collectors, and celebrity endorsements from figures like Lisa of BLACKPINK have propelled the brand into the mainstream. Rare Labubu figures now fetch thousands of dollars, emphasizing their collectible nature.

Even personally, I’m not a fan of Pop Mart toys but I’ve observed the craze firsthand. When Labubu first became popular, friends and acquaintances couldn’t stop talking about it. I expected the hype to fade, but some time later, people are still excitedly discussing the toys. This shows that Pop Mart products aren’t just trendy—they have staying power, appealing strongly to a passionate niche audience.

Global Expansion and Strategic Growth

Pop Mart's growth isn’t confined to one country. The company has many physical stores and automated "roboshops" across many countries. Pop Mart is also expanding its offerings with mini Labubu phone charms, tapping into mobile accessories and creating additional revenue streams.

Psychological Appeal and Market Dynamics

The blind box model's success aligns perfectly with human psychology: the element of surprise, the thrill of rarity, and the community aspect of trading figures all drive engagement. However, some critics compare the experience to gambling, raising questions about regulations for younger consumers. Nonetheless, this model has proven to be a potent business strategy.

Stock Perspective

On the stock front, I remain cautious. Buying at these highs doesn’t align with my strategy of avoiding “buy high, sell low” scenarios, especially in stocks with relatively low dividend yields. That said, Pop Mart’s story is undeniably compelling. Its products have shown staying power in a niche market, and its share price performance reflects that cultural cachet. Even for someone like me who isn’t a collector, watching the stock soar feels like following the next hit toy craze: exciting, unpredictable, and hard to ignore.

Conclusion: A New Era for Collectibles

Pop Mart's success signifies a paradigm shift in the collectibles industry. By blending art, psychology, and commerce, the company has created a model that appeals to a broad demographic. The $324.6 mark for its stock may not be a ceiling but rather a stepping stone toward even greater heights.