📉 SPX Retreated 5 Days – Top or Just a Shakeout?
The S&P 500 ($SPX, ~6,467 / SPY ~$645) just logged 5 straight red sessions, the longest pullback in months. Volatility ($VIX) spiked briefly before easing back toward 14.2, showing fear faded quickly. So, is this the top — or just a reset before another leg higher?
🔎 Macro Factors
Fed Pivot Tailwind: Powell's dovish Jackson Hole stance has re-anchored expectations for a September rate cut (90% odds). Lower yields = tailwind for equities.
Earnings Season Wrap-Up: Corporate beats (esp. AI/tech) continue to hold up indexes.
Seasonality: Late August / September historically volatile, but Q4 tends to bring rallies.
📊 Technical Levels (SPY / SPX)
Support Zones: SPY $635 / SPX 6,350 → strong buyers likely step in.
Resistance Zones: SPY $655 / SPX 6,550 → breakout above opens path to new highs.
Neutral Band: Chop between $635–655 until data or earnings break the range.
🎯 Prediction for Next Week
Bullish Case: If SPY reclaims $650+ with volume → push toward $660.
Bearish Case: Slip below $635 → test deeper $620 zone.
Most Likely: Range-bound consolidation while market waits for NVDA earnings + August jobs report.
From the images above, we can see:
Top: SPY at Decision Zone → $635 support vs $655 resistance (current ~$645).
Middle: Volatility Spike Cooling → VIX spiked, but is fading back to ~14 = fear subsiding.
Bottom: Seasonality at Play → Aug–Sep often weak, but Q4 (Oct–Dec) historically strong rally months.
✅ Takeaway
The 5-day pullback looks more like healthy profit-taking than a market top. Spotting the exact peak is nearly impossible — but tracking levels, sentiment, and catalysts helps you manage risk better than chasing tops and bottoms.
I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!
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