To The Moon

My screen this morning is giving us four very different signals. MU: $872.79, -1.35% CRCL: $73.86, +1.82% BYND: $7.52, +8.83% RZLV: $1.48, +1.47% At first glance? Three green. One red. But that is almost useless information. Because these four stocks represent four completely different trades. MU = THESIS TRADE CRCL = EARNINGS SETUP BYND = MOMENTUM / SQUEEZE TRADE RZLV = PROVE-IT SPECULATION And after Friday's violent repricing of growth stocks? I think knowing WHICH game you are playing matters more than whether the stock is green or red today. 🟢 1. MU: THE ONE I WOULD MOST WANT TO OWN ON WEAKNESS Micron is around: $873 after trading near $987 only days ago. That is roughly an 11% reset from that recent high. And unlike some of the speculative names being sold? I do NOT see evidence yet t

QQQ closed Friday at: $690.49 down: 3.47%. The Nasdaq fell almost 3%. Semiconductors were crushed. AMD fell 10.9%. Nvidia fell 4.2%. Intel collapsed 28.6%. And suddenly the question everywhere is: IS THE AI TRADE FINALLY BREAKING? I don't think that is what Friday told us. I think something more important happened. For two years, the market rewarded companies for: SPENDING ON AI. Now it is beginning to ask: WHO ACTUALLY EARNS A RETURN FROM IT? That is not necessarily the end of the AI bull market. It may be: THE END OF EASY AI MONEY. And that distinction completely changes how I would buy this dip. 🔥 FRIDAY WAS NOT A NORMAL RISK-OFF DAY Look underneath the indices. QQQ: -3.47% S&P 500: -1.82% Dow: -1.09% Nasdaq: -2.86% That dispersion matters. If investors suddenly believed the entire

Apple and AMD report this week. Apple has the iPhone replacement cycle. AMD has something potentially much bigger: GIGAWATTS OF AI DEMAND. OpenAI. Meta. Anthropic. Microsoft. These are not speculative customer names. AMD has built one of the most impressive AI customer pipelines outside Nvidia. Yet AMD around: $516 creates a very different problem. The market no longer needs proof that customers WANT AMD chips. It needs proof that AMD can turn those commitments into: REVENUE → MARGIN → CASH. That is the real earnings test. 🔥 AMD'S AI STORY HAS QUIETLY CHANGED A year ago, investors were asking: Can AMD genuinely challenge Nvidia? I think that question is becoming outdated. Look at what has happened. OpenAI intends to deploy up to: 6 GW of AMD GPUs. Meta intends to deploy up to: 6 GW. Anthro

Apple reports tonight. Wall Street expects roughly: Revenue: $113.4B EPS: $1.99 Apple is sitting around: $344 near record territory. So naturally everyone is asking: CAN APPLE BEAT AND HIT ANOTHER ALL-TIME HIGH? I think that is the wrong question. Because Apple's most important new product: THE IPHONE DUO is barely relevant to the quarter Apple is reporting. It launched AFTER the quarter ended. So tonight's biggest number may not be Q4 revenue. It may be: THE Q1 FY2027 GUIDE. That is where the real battle begins. 🔥 TONIGHT IS REALLY A PREVIEW OF APPLE'S NEXT CYCLE The reported quarter gives us: iPhone 18 launch-week demand Services growth gross margin China supply constraints. Useful. But the December quarter captures something much more interesting: IPHONE DUO + HOLIDAY DEMAND. Wall Stree

$Microsoft(MSFT)$   $Alphabet(GOOG)$   Microsoft and Google just gave us two radically different versions of the AI boom. Microsoft: Revenue $92.3B Azure +48% Operating cash flow $58B Free cash flow $18.6B Capex $45.2B Google: Revenue $127.6B Cloud +103% Operating cash flow $42.3B Free cash flow -$9.1B Capex $51.4B At first glance, Microsoft wins. It is growing AI AND producing cash. Google is growing faster but burning cash. But I think there is a much more important question hiding underneath these numbers. WHO CAN FINANCE THE AI WAR FROM ITS OWN AI SUCCESS? That may become the next great dividing line in AI investing. 🔥 AI HAS ENTE

Hong Kong just unleashed SIX IPOs at once. AI chips. Memory. Semiconductor packaging. Energy storage. Biotech. Traditional medicine. It looks like risk appetite is back. But I think that is exactly the wrong conclusion. Because Hong Kong's IPO market has quietly changed. Earlier this year, buying almost any respectable IPO worked. Now? THE FREE LUNCH IS OVER. The Q1 first-day break rate was only around: 10%. By Q3? Roughly: 45%. Recent listings have produced everything from huge gains to brutal losses. So I would NOT ask: “Which IPO is hottest?” I would ask: “WHICH ONE SITS INSIDE THE STRONGEST EARNINGS CYCLE?” And that gives me a very different ranking. 🔥 MY NO.1: HONGXINYU / HOSIN ELECTRONICS (02681) This may not be the sexiest name of the six. But strategically? THIS IS THE ONE I FIND M

Alphabet just gave investors one of the strangest earnings reports of this AI cycle. Revenue: $127.6B, +25% Google Cloud: $30.7B, +103% Cloud operating income: $11.1B Cloud backlog: $561B Search revenue: +12% Yet free cash flow fell to: -$9.1B And Alphabet shares plunged. The easy conclusion is: 🔴 Google is spending too much on AI. I think that misses something bigger. Google may be undergoing one of the most important business-model changes in its history. It is quietly moving from: SELLING ADS + RENTING CLOUD towards: SELLING AI INFRASTRUCTURE ITSELF. And that changes how I interpret the cash burn. 🔥 THE NUMBER EVERYONE SAW: CLOUD +103% Doubling a $15B quarterly business in one year is extraordinary. But look underneath it. Management specifically said: TPU SYSTEM SALES WERE A MEANINGFUL

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   SanDisk just delivered numbers that would normally send a stock flying. Revenue: $11.03B, +23% QoQ Non-GAAP EPS: $49.51 Gross margin: 85.1% Data-center revenue: $4.8B, +61% QoQ Adjusted free cash flow: $5.7B Then management guided next quarter to: $12.2B-$12.6B revenue 84.5%-85.5% gross margin $55-$57 EPS And announced an 8-for-1 stock split. Yet SNDK sold off. Investors are understandably asking: WHAT MORE DOES THE MARKET WANT? My answer: Something very different from six months ago. 🔥 SANDISK'S PROBLEM IS NOT THE BUSINESS I want to make this distinction immediately. These numbers do NOT look like the end of a memory cycle. Revenue grew 23% sequentially. Data-center grew 61%. Gross margin expanded. Next-quarter revenu

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$   Binance just suffered an approximately: $6.3 BILLION SECURITY BREACH. Bitcoin dropped below $79K. Withdrawals were suspended. Billions moved through hacker-controlled wallets. The obvious conclusion? 🔴 Crypto is unsafe. I think the more interesting conclusion is almost the opposite. Because something extraordinary happened AFTER the hack. Roughly: $3 BILLION of affected assets has already been frozen on-chain. Circle reportedly froze more than: $800 MILLION. And THAT may be the most important part of this story. 🔥 THE HACK EXPOSED CRYPTO'S TWO SYSTEMS People talk about “crypto” as though everything wor

$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$   $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$   The Federal Reserve paused. Rates remain: 3.75%-4.00% The obvious trade would be: Fed stops hiking → yields fall → buy growth → everything rallies. I think that is too simplistic. Because buried inside the Fed decision was a much more important signal. The vote was: 10-2. And BOTH dissenters