To The Moon

Something interesting is happening underneath this market. Yesterday: NASDAQ: -1.07% S&P 500: -0.51% while: DOW: +0.41%. Yet this morning some of the most beaten-up growth names are bouncing pre-market. AMD: +2.94%. SMCI: +2.46%. Micron: +3.24%. CRCL: +0.99%. That looks like dip buying. But I think something bigger is happening. The market is becoming much more selective about: WHAT IT IS WILLING TO PAY FOR. Palantir just gave us a perfect example. Phenomenal growth. Phenomenal margins. Phenomenal cash generation. The stock still fell. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 has entered correction territory as investors increasingly question whether enormous AI spending will translate into sufficient returns. So going into tonight's earnings, I am NOT asking: “WHICH COMPANY WILL BEAT?” That question

Palantir just delivered the kind of quarter most companies could only dream of. Revenue: $2.313B Up: 96% YoY. U.S. commercial revenue: $984M Up: 148%. U.S. government revenue: $953M Up: 96%. Adjusted EPS: $0.44. Adjusted free cash flow: $1.22B. FCF margin: 53%. And management RAISED full-year revenue guidance to: $8.530B-$8.534B. Then the stock fell. Again. At around $163 pre-market, Palantir is down roughly: 8.5%. So what exactly does the market want? I think I found the answer. And strangely? It isn't revenue. It isn't EPS. It isn't even free cash flow. It is: THE NEXT DOLLAR. 🔥 FIRST, THIS WAS AN EXTRAORDINARY QUARTER Let's not rewrite reality simply because the stock fell. Palantir's business is accelerating at a scale that is extremely unusual. Total revenue: +96%. U.S. revenue: +119%

Marvell just announced one of the biggest technology deals ever. $115 BILLION. The target? Lumentum. One of the hottest companies sitting at the intersection of: AI optical networking lasers data centres. The strategic story sounds almost perfect. And the market's response? SELL BOTH. Marvell plunged. Lumentum plunged even harder. That sounds like investors believe the deal is terrible. I think the truth is more interesting. Because on the SAME DAY this merger was announced, Lumentum reported: REVENUE +136.5% YoY and guided its next quarter dramatically higher. So I don't think the market is saying: “OPTICAL AI IS DEAD.” I think it is asking: “HOW MUCH IS TOO MUCH TO PAY FOR THE FUTURE?” And that makes this deal one of the most fascinating tests yet of the AI infrastructure boom. 🔥 FIRST,

My screen this morning is giving us four very different signals. MU: $872.79, -1.35% CRCL: $73.86, +1.82% BYND: $7.52, +8.83% RZLV: $1.48, +1.47% At first glance? Three green. One red. But that is almost useless information. Because these four stocks represent four completely different trades. MU = THESIS TRADE CRCL = EARNINGS SETUP BYND = MOMENTUM / SQUEEZE TRADE RZLV = PROVE-IT SPECULATION And after Friday's violent repricing of growth stocks? I think knowing WHICH game you are playing matters more than whether the stock is green or red today. 🟢 1. MU: THE ONE I WOULD MOST WANT TO OWN ON WEAKNESS Micron is around: $873 after trading near $987 only days ago. That is roughly an 11% reset from that recent high. And unlike some of the speculative names being sold? I do NOT see evidence yet t

QQQ closed Friday at: $690.49 down: 3.47%. The Nasdaq fell almost 3%. Semiconductors were crushed. AMD fell 10.9%. Nvidia fell 4.2%. Intel collapsed 28.6%. And suddenly the question everywhere is: IS THE AI TRADE FINALLY BREAKING? I don't think that is what Friday told us. I think something more important happened. For two years, the market rewarded companies for: SPENDING ON AI. Now it is beginning to ask: WHO ACTUALLY EARNS A RETURN FROM IT? That is not necessarily the end of the AI bull market. It may be: THE END OF EASY AI MONEY. And that distinction completely changes how I would buy this dip. 🔥 FRIDAY WAS NOT A NORMAL RISK-OFF DAY Look underneath the indices. QQQ: -3.47% S&P 500: -1.82% Dow: -1.09% Nasdaq: -2.86% That dispersion matters. If investors suddenly believed the entire

Apple and AMD report this week. Apple has the iPhone replacement cycle. AMD has something potentially much bigger: GIGAWATTS OF AI DEMAND. OpenAI. Meta. Anthropic. Microsoft. These are not speculative customer names. AMD has built one of the most impressive AI customer pipelines outside Nvidia. Yet AMD around: $516 creates a very different problem. The market no longer needs proof that customers WANT AMD chips. It needs proof that AMD can turn those commitments into: REVENUE → MARGIN → CASH. That is the real earnings test. 🔥 AMD'S AI STORY HAS QUIETLY CHANGED A year ago, investors were asking: Can AMD genuinely challenge Nvidia? I think that question is becoming outdated. Look at what has happened. OpenAI intends to deploy up to: 6 GW of AMD GPUs. Meta intends to deploy up to: 6 GW. Anthro

Apple reports tonight. Wall Street expects roughly: Revenue: $113.4B EPS: $1.99 Apple is sitting around: $344 near record territory. So naturally everyone is asking: CAN APPLE BEAT AND HIT ANOTHER ALL-TIME HIGH? I think that is the wrong question. Because Apple's most important new product: THE IPHONE DUO is barely relevant to the quarter Apple is reporting. It launched AFTER the quarter ended. So tonight's biggest number may not be Q4 revenue. It may be: THE Q1 FY2027 GUIDE. That is where the real battle begins. 🔥 TONIGHT IS REALLY A PREVIEW OF APPLE'S NEXT CYCLE The reported quarter gives us: iPhone 18 launch-week demand Services growth gross margin China supply constraints. Useful. But the December quarter captures something much more interesting: IPHONE DUO + HOLIDAY DEMAND. Wall Stree

$Microsoft(MSFT)$   $Alphabet(GOOG)$   Microsoft and Google just gave us two radically different versions of the AI boom. Microsoft: Revenue $92.3B Azure +48% Operating cash flow $58B Free cash flow $18.6B Capex $45.2B Google: Revenue $127.6B Cloud +103% Operating cash flow $42.3B Free cash flow -$9.1B Capex $51.4B At first glance, Microsoft wins. It is growing AI AND producing cash. Google is growing faster but burning cash. But I think there is a much more important question hiding underneath these numbers. WHO CAN FINANCE THE AI WAR FROM ITS OWN AI SUCCESS? That may become the next great dividing line in AI investing. 🔥 AI HAS ENTE

Hong Kong just unleashed SIX IPOs at once. AI chips. Memory. Semiconductor packaging. Energy storage. Biotech. Traditional medicine. It looks like risk appetite is back. But I think that is exactly the wrong conclusion. Because Hong Kong's IPO market has quietly changed. Earlier this year, buying almost any respectable IPO worked. Now? THE FREE LUNCH IS OVER. The Q1 first-day break rate was only around: 10%. By Q3? Roughly: 45%. Recent listings have produced everything from huge gains to brutal losses. So I would NOT ask: “Which IPO is hottest?” I would ask: “WHICH ONE SITS INSIDE THE STRONGEST EARNINGS CYCLE?” And that gives me a very different ranking. 🔥 MY NO.1: HONGXINYU / HOSIN ELECTRONICS (02681) This may not be the sexiest name of the six. But strategically? THIS IS THE ONE I FIND M

Alphabet just gave investors one of the strangest earnings reports of this AI cycle. Revenue: $127.6B, +25% Google Cloud: $30.7B, +103% Cloud operating income: $11.1B Cloud backlog: $561B Search revenue: +12% Yet free cash flow fell to: -$9.1B And Alphabet shares plunged. The easy conclusion is: 🔴 Google is spending too much on AI. I think that misses something bigger. Google may be undergoing one of the most important business-model changes in its history. It is quietly moving from: SELLING ADS + RENTING CLOUD towards: SELLING AI INFRASTRUCTURE ITSELF. And that changes how I interpret the cash burn. 🔥 THE NUMBER EVERYONE SAW: CLOUD +103% Doubling a $15B quarterly business in one year is extraordinary. But look underneath it. Management specifically said: TPU SYSTEM SALES WERE A MEANINGFUL