To The Moon

Memory investors are getting nervous, and understandably so. Micron is now around $1,003, more than 18% below its recent high. SanDisk has fallen toward $1,548. SK Hynix remains under pressure, while leveraged memory trades have been hit much harder. After such a powerful run, an 18% drop can feel like the market is telling us something serious. Maybe it is. But I think we need to separate three very different things: A stock correction. A conventional DRAM downturn. A breakdown of the AI memory thesis. They are not the same. Right now, I see evidence of the first two concerns. I do not yet see enough evidence for the third. Why Has MU Fallen So Much? The uncomfortable answer is that the memory story became almost too successful. Investors spent months buying the same thesis: AI demand is

Last Thursday looked ugly for semiconductors. AMD fell 3.9% to $620.68. Nvidia lost 2.94%, Broadcom dropped 4.35%, while Intel fell 5.34%. AMD then weakened again on Friday, closing around $608. Normally, when stocks fall this hard, I ask whether the fundamental story changed. This time, Lisa Su gave us an unusually useful answer. AMD is planning a substantial increase in supply, yet management still sees demand exceeding what the industry can currently produce. Advanced wafers, HBM, packaging and other parts of the AI supply chain remain constrained. That creates a fascinating divergence: The stocks are pricing fear while the supply chain is still pricing scarcity. For me, that is not automatically a sell signal. It is a signal to become much more selective. Why Did Chips Sell Off Then? T

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   Circle closed Thursday around $84.5, up roughly 4.5%, after spending much of the past two weeks trapped in the low-to-mid $80s. That rebound matters. But I do not think CRCL has broken out yet. For next week, I see $88 as the first gate, $90-$92 as the real confirmation zone, and $100 as the level that could pull momentum traders back in quickly. My base case is that CRCL tests higher next week, but I expect volatility because the macro backdrop is fighting the company-specific story. The micro story is improving. The macro story is not nearly as friendly. That tension is exactly what makes next week interesting. First, What Changed in the Chart? CRCL traded as low as $78.88 on Wednesday, then rallied to an int

Samsung just delivered the kind of number that should have sent memory stocks flying. Q3 operating profit reached approximately 107.4 trillion won, up almost ninefold from a year earlier and another quarterly record. Instead, memory stocks sold off. Micron fell about 4.8% to $1,035.84. SanDisk dropped about 4.9% to $1,609.46. SK Hynix also fell sharply. That looks contradictory. It is not. The market has moved beyond asking whether the memory boom is real. The new question is: Are we looking at peak earnings, or simply peak acceleration? Those are very different things. Samsung Record Profit Is Not Bearish The headline number is extraordinary, but the details matter more. Samsung revenue increased sharply, operating profit reached a new record, and memory remains the major engine behind th

Semiconductors rallied Tuesday, yet memory stocks went the other way. SK Hynix fell 6.39%, Seagate dropped 9.18%, Western Digital lost 6.93%, SanDisk declined 2.56% and Micron slipped 1.73%. At first glance, that looks worrying. If AI infrastructure demand remains strong, why are some of the biggest beneficiaries suddenly underperforming? I think the answer is that the memory trade has entered a more difficult phase. The market no longer needs proof that memory prices are strong. It needs proof that extraordinary memory economics can last.  The Supercycle Has Become a Victim of Its Own Success Memory has enjoyed an exceptional run. AI servers require enormous quantities of high-performance memory and storage. HBM demand exploded. DRAM tightened. NAND pricing improved. That created the

The indices are green, but today I'm less interested in chasing the market and more interested in where the next asymmetric trade may be forming. My five watches today are Micron (MU), Circle (CRCL), SpaceX (SPCX), Rezolve AI (RZLV) and Beyond Meat (BYND). 1. MU: My Highest-Conviction Watch Micron remains my favourite fundamental setup of the group. The latest earnings reinforced the AI memory shortage thesis, but the stock hasn't simply exploded higher afterwards. That hesitation is actually useful. The debate has shifted from whether memory demand is strong to how long extraordinary pricing can persist. My approach today is simple: I don't chase MU strength. I buy good pullbacks while the memory thesis remains intact. What I'm watching now is whether buyers continue defending weakness de

The Terafab headline looks bullish for TSMC and uncomfortable for Intel. But I think the market may be simplifying the story too much. TSMC closed at a record $485.80, up 2.75%, after Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is in early discussions with TSMC regarding his enormous Terafab chip-manufacturing ambition. Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. SpaceX jumped 7.63% to $171.09. The immediate interpretation is obvious: TSMC wins. Intel loses. Musk gets his chips. I think reality is more interesting. Terafab could become so enormous that the ultimate winner isn't necessarily whichever foundry gets the project. It could be the company that becomes indispensable to the entire ecosystem. And right now, that still looks like TSMC. What Musk Actually Confirmed Terafab is Musk's vision for semiconductor manu

AVGO's latest numbers create one of the more interesting debates in AI semiconductors right now. Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7B in Q3, up an extraordinary 221% YoY and 54% sequentially. Management expects that figure to accelerate again to approximately $21.7B in Q4. Yet AVGO is around $355, well below its June peak. Why? Because the market isn't questioning whether Broadcom can sell AI chips anymore. It is questioning how profitable each additional dollar of AI revenue will be. That distinction determines whether $355 is an opportunity or a value trap. The $16.7B Number Is Bigger Than It Looks AI semiconductor revenue now represents roughly 56% of Broadcom's total revenue. Custom accelerators are no longer an interesting side business. They are rapidly becoming the cen

SpaceX has just given investors a reason to rethink what kind of company they actually own. SPCX closed around $159, up more than 7% on Friday and roughly 18% above its $135 IPO price. Yet it remains far below its post-IPO high around $225. Then came a potentially enormous catalyst. Anthropic's IPO disclosures reportedly revealed agreements worth up to $84.5 billion through 2029 for Nvidia-based computing capacity supplied through SpaceX/xAI infrastructure. That number is eye-catching. But I think the more interesting question is not whether $84.5 billion sounds bullish. It is this: Is SpaceX quietly transforming from a rocket-and-satellite company into one of the world's most unusual AI infrastructure companies? If yes, $159 may eventually look cheap. If no, investors could be paying more

$Eightco Holdings Inc.(ORBS)$   Eightco Holdings is one of the stranger small-cap setups I'm watching right now. ORBS closed at $1.16, up 2.65%, after trading as high as $1.36. More importantly, the chart has climbed from a recent low around $0.73 while producing a sequence of higher lows. Unlike BYND and RZLV, this is not an oversold-rebound setup. ORBS already has momentum. The question is whether the next move is $1.40+, or whether traders are about to discover how quickly a crypto-treasury premium can disappear. First, Understand What You're Actually Buying ORBS increasingly behaves less like a conventional operating company and more like a publicly traded basket of speculative assets. Its latest disclosed holdings were approximately $380