To The Moon

Market Outlook of S&P500 (25Aug25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - currently shows a downtrend. However, it seems to be inching back upwards. Let us monitor.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. The lines are converging, which represents a potential reversal of the current uptrend. However, the convergence is not yet complete, and we expect the uptrend to continue.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.05, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. However, it is on a downward trend, with most using the middle “0” line as the indicator for trend change.

The S&P 500 has grown 14.77% from a year ago.

The S&P 500 technical analysis (daily interval) is recommending a “Strong Buy”. All 22 indicators comprise moving averages and technical indicators are pointing to a “Buy” signal.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (from Grok)

• Short-Term Outlook (August 25–29, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to start the week with a bearish bias, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns. If the price is around 5,300–5,350 by August 24, the coming week could test 5,345.01 (early 2025 low) or drop further to 5,300 if selling pressure intensifies. Potential scenarios include:

   

  Bearish Case: A continued decline below 5,345.01 with high volume, possibly forming a Three Black Crows pattern, targeting 5,300 or lower.

   

  Neutral Case: Stabilization around 5,345.01, with a Doji or small-bodied candle indicating consolidation or a potential bottom.

   

  Bullish Reversal Case: A bounce from 5,345.01 with a bullish pattern (e.g., Hammer or Morning Star) and increasing volume, signaling a recovery toward 5,479.78 or 5,620.19.

• Long-Term Outlook: The trend remains bearish, with the S&P 500 in a correction phase that could mirror the early 2025 decline from 6,000 to 5,345.01. The current price below the 50 MA (5,629.83) and 200 MA (5,796.34) supports this outlook, with a potential retest of 5,345.01 or lower if bearish momentum continues.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a bearish long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 is in a correction phase following its recent high, with potential for further downside unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.

The technicals point to a bullish week ahead. Is a correction due? I am leaning toward a bullish run that should experience a reversal soon.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$