<Part 4 of 5> sell signals, delinquency & tariffs - News and my thoughts from the past week (25Aug25)
News and my thoughts from the past week (25Aug25)
Image
Rising Delinquencies... Credit cards: >12%, highest since the Great Recession. Student loans: back above 10% after payments resumed, likely to continue higher. Auto loans: near 5%, approaching a 14-year high. The debt stress is piling up. - X user Charlie Bilello
Image
ACCORDING TO WALL STREET GOOGLE’S 6 MAIN BUSINESS ARE WORTH $3.5 TRILLION ON A STAND ALONE BASIS THE $3.5 TRILLION DOZENS EVEN INCLUDE DOZENS OF SMALLER UNITS GOOGLE IS CURRENTLY WORTH JUST $2.5 TRILLION - X user Gurgavin
Image
Bull markets have lasted 5x longer than bear markets on average. Bulls: +254% over 5 years. Bears: –31% over 1 year. Markets spend far more time growing wealth than destroying it. Why is interrupting compounding the biggest risk of all? - X user Charlie Bilello
Americans aren't drinking anymore. Alcohol giants are scrambling to manage the fallout. - Yahoo Finance
Image
Image
Japanese automakers have begun passing the costs of U.S. tariffs onto American consumers, per the Nikkei. - Unusual Whales
US retail sales adjusted for inflation have been basically flat over the last 4 years. In other words, US consumer spending has barely kept pace with rising prices. Consumer spending has been materially slowing.
APPLE RAISES APPLE TV+ PRICES BY 30% Perfect inflation.
Image
Office space vacancy rates hit ~20% in Q2 2025, the highest share on RECORD. Vacant office space has almost DOUBLED in 5 years. This is also WAY above the post-Great Financial Crisis peak. When will this stop? - X user Global Markets Investor
Global equities 'SELL SIGNAL' triggered for the 2nd month: Institutional investors' cash as a share of assets hit 3.9% in August, up from 3.8% in July. Cash allocations at or below 4% historically indicate a “SELL SIGNAL” for global equities - BofA
Image
S&P 500 trades at 22x earnings expectations for the next 12 months, one of the most expensive valuations in the last 35 years - BarChart
Blackstone didn't buy 274,000 homes to be landlords. They spent $1 trillion turning homeownership into subscription housing. They are creating a generation that will own nothing and rent everything. While families dream of white picket fences, Wall Street dreams of permanent tenants - X user Shawn Chauhan
Image
Container shipping traffic from China to the US is falling again: The number of container ships departing from China to the US over the last 15 days has dropped to its lowest level since May. This is also one of the lowest readings in 2 years. Shipping volumes have declined by ~40% over the last month. This comes despite the ongoing US-China tariff truce, which was extended for another 90 days on Tuesday. In reality, average US tariff rates on Chinese goods still stand at ~55%, according to Bloomberg. US-China trade is slowing. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Image
Businesses are eating 64% of tariffs right now. We know that. But according to Goldman, by October, this will drop to only 8%, with consumers eating 67%. - X user Ryan Detrick
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- Guy·08-25TOPSuch insightful thoughts! Keep it coming! [Wow]1Report