To The Moon

$Figma(FIG)$ Figma's earnings beat estimates with Q2 revenue at $249.6 million (up 9% YoY, above $248.8 million expected) and breakeven EPS, flipping from a $827.9 million loss last year to $0.8 million profit. Guidance for Q3 at $252 million and full-year $1.02 billion topped forecasts, but an extended lock-up for 35% shares triggered a 15% stock plunge to $50. This move, amid Adobe's $20 billion acquisition block, has investors debating if it's a bottom or more downside. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the VIX at 14.12 reflects calm, but tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $74.50/barrel stir caution. Is $50 a buy? How do you view the extension? Is this the bottom or market pricing in expiry risks? This deep dive explores the earnings, lock-up impact, market reactions, and strategies to play the dip or hedge the risk.

Earnings Beat: Growth Amid Challenges

Figma's results show strength:

• Revenue Details: $249.6 million, up 9% from $228.9 million in Q2 2024, beating $248.8 million estimates, with enterprise subscriptions up 20% to $150 million.

• Profit Turnaround: Net income at $0.8 million vs. $827.9 million loss, with EBITDA at $50 million (20% margin), driven by cost cuts and 1.5 million paid users (up 10%).

• Guidance Outlook: Q3 revenue $252 million (up 8% YoY), full-year $1.02 billion (up 12%), above consensus $1.01 billion, signaling confidence.

• Operational Highlights: AI tools like FigJam AI boosted engagement 15%, but competition from Canva and Adobe pressured growth.

• Market Reaction: Shares dropped 15% to $50, with volume at 25 million (up from 10 million average), reflecting lock-up fears.

• Sentiment Check: Posts found on X praise "Figma's AI edge" but worry about "lock-up overhang," showing a split view.

The beat is solid, but the extension casts a shadow.

Lock-Up Extension: Relief or Red Flag?

The extended lock-up adds intrigue:

• Extension Details: 35% shares (worth $12 billion at $50) locked until March 2026, delaying sales from initial September 2025 expiry, per SEC filings.

• Investor Impact: Adobe and early backers like Index Ventures agreed to extend, reducing overhang but signaling potential selling pressure later.

• Market Implications: The extension avoids a flood of shares, but a 15% plunge suggests fears of delayed exits, with short interest up 20% to 5%.

• Historical Parallels: Similar extensions in Airbnb (2020) saw a 10% dip followed by 30% rebound; Figma's $34 billion cap could follow if growth holds.

• Sentiment Check: Optimism on X for "reduced overhang" contrasts with "delayed dump" fears, showing a market weighing risks.

The extension could stabilize, but timing fuels speculation.

Dip Below $50: Bottom Buy or Deeper Trap?

A slide to $50 could be pivotal:

• Bull Case: At $50, a rebound to $60 (20% upside) is feasible this quarter if $48 holds, with a $70 target (40% gain) by year-end if AI tools shine.

• Bear Case: A break below $48 risks $40-$45 (10-20% downside), with $35 as a floor if competition intensifies.

• Technical View: RSI at 40 and a MACD crossover suggest a bounce, but volume spikes hint at volatility, with a 15% weekly range.

• Valuation Check: At $50, a forward P/S of 15x (below peers at 20x) offers value, with analysts' $65 target (30% upside) reflecting confidence.

• Long-Term View: If revenue hits $1.2 billion by FY27 and margins rise to 25%, a $80 target (60% upside) is feasible, but Adobe rivalry could cap gains at $40 (20% downside).

The $50 level could be a buy if support holds.

Trading Strategies: Play the Dip or Hedge the Drop

Short-Term Plays

• Buy the Dip: Buy at $50-$52, target $60-$65, stop at $48. A 20-30% gain if support holds.

• Bearish Hedge: Buy puts at $50, target $40, stop at $55. A 20% win if correction deepens.

• Sector Pivot: Buy Microsoft at $450, target $460, stop at $440. A 2% gain if rotation continues.

• Profit Lock: Sell at $55-$57, target $52-$54, stop at $60. A 5-7% buffer if overbought.

• Options Play: Buy $60 calls or $45 puts (September expiry) for 150-200% gains on a 5-10% move.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Figma: Buy at $50-$52, target $70-$80 by 2026, for 40-60% upside if AI holds. Stop at $45.

• Diversify with Canva: Buy at $80, target $100, for 25% upside. Stop at $75.

• Value Bet: Buy Adobe at $550, target $600, for 9% upside. Stop at $530.

• Defensive Hold: Buy PepsiCo at $185, target $200, for 8% upside. Stop at $180.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility.

• SPY Puts: Use puts at 6,400 for a 5-10% market drop.

• Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $210, stop at $195, as a buffer.

My Trading Plan: Betting on a Rebound

I’m capitalizing on the dip with a strategic mix. I’ll buy Figma at $50-$52, targeting $60, with a $48 stop, betting on a rebound if support holds. I’ll add Canva at $80, aiming for $90, with a $75 stop, for diversification. I’ll include Adobe at $550, targeting $580, with a $530 stop, and PepsiCo at $185, targeting $195, with a $180 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and holding 20% cash for a drop to $45 or tariff news. I’ll monitor client updates and Fed signals closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Figma’s earnings beat with $249.6 million revenue and breakeven EPS, but the lock-up extension for 35% shares triggered a 15% plunge to $50 on September 4, 2025. A 10-20% rebound to $55-$60 is possible this week if $48 holds, with a $70 target (40% upside) by year-end if AI tools shine. A 10-20% dip to $40-$45 threatens if competition intensifies, with $35 support. The $34 billion cap and 37x P/E suggest value—bet on the dip with hedges or wait for clarity. The design game is on—your next move?

Figma dip: buy below $50? Share below! 🎁

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