To The Moon

On Wed, 17 Sep 2025, it finally came true. US Federal Reserves implemented its first interest cut of 2025, a -0.25% trim to the Fed Funds rate. With that, the new revised rate stands at 4.00% - 4.25%. Funnily enough, on Wednesday after the FOMC conference where Fed chair Mr Powell gave a summary, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ actually fell by -6.4 points ending the day lower at 6,600.35. However, on Thu, 18 Sep 2025 it closed the day at 6,631.96 - yet another ‘new’ high. (see below) Even before the effect of a post interest-cut has settled, market has already shifted attention to when the next interest cut might be. Dot Plot - September 2025 version. For that, would have to defer to the Fed’s latest September 2025’s dot plot. The chart within the Fed’s “Summary of Economic Projections” (SEP) report has signaled that, of the 19 voting members, the median official expects two or more 25-basis-point reductions to interest rates in 2025. (see below) That indicates that the doves on the committee are in the driver’s seat, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Hd of Fixed Income Macro strategies - Simon Dangoor. Fed's dot plot - september 2025 ver Headline Dot Plot. The distribution of individual dots on the plot shows more dovishness than in June 2025, with only one member currently projecting no further cuts in 2025 (down from seven in June). The median dot plot projection for December 2025 is a federal funds rate of 3.5%–3.75%, about half a percentage point below the current rate after the September move. Policymakers’ views are divided: Most FOMC members favor further small, measured cuts, while a few want a more aggressive approach, and some see little need for additional easing. For 2026, the dot plot implies one more rate cut is likely, matching the June projection. What This Means ? The message reflects (a) a Fed balancing "sticky" inflation against (b) a weakening labour market. Except this time round, officials are more worried about rising unemployment than flaring inflation’s return. (see below) Weak US Labour Market. US nonfarm payroll growth has stalled since May 2025. Jobs report data showed sharp downward revisions and labour market cooling. (see above) May 2025’s job gain was revised sharply lower, while June 2025 registered a net loss of -13,000 jobs after revision. Collectively jobs were revised downward by -258,000 jobs for these 2 months. July 2025’s jobs rebounded, registering significant improvements. August 2025 saw payroll trickled down again to just 22,000 jobs, while unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, the highest since August 2024. Economic forecasts tied to the dot plot show: Inflation around 3% in 2025. (see above) Higher unemployment at 4.5%, as the Fed cuts rates to cushion slowing growth. In the post FOMC meeting, Fed chair Powell highlighted this is a highly uncertain situation, and rate decisions will remain "data dependent" given cross-currents from tariffs and labour market shifts. S&P 500 Sector Heatmap On Thu, 18 Sep 2024, the S&P 500 rose +31.61 points (+0.48%), closing (again) at a record high of 6,631.96. It was led by strong gains in technology stocks (+1.73%) that outperformed both defensive and cyclical sectors, while investors’ optimism remained following Fed’s interest cut. (see above) The outperformance was driven by valuation expansion: As falling rates increase “present” value of future earnings. While resilient AI and cloud demand, that support revenue & margin forecasts for tech majors. Why Technology Outperformed Lower rates immediately boost tech valuations because their earnings are weighted far into the future. AI, cloud, and semiconductor segments continue strong momentum, with big names like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ benefiting most from corporate capital spending and digital transformation trends. EPS upgrades outpaced downgrades, while Q2 earnings surprises and growth were led by tech, outpacing all other S&P sectors. Holy Trinity Tech Stocks. Nvidia (NVDA)$, Microsoft (MSFT)$ and $Apple(AAPL)$ are the 3 best tech stocks to own now. Three stocks are “must-buys” because they combine secular growth drivers with leadership positions, and their earnings quality and analyst targets remain strong even in rotation phases. Tech is favoured for both defensive and growth-oriented portfolios post interest cut. Year-to-date: (as of 18 Sep 2025 endday) Nvidia has gained +27.42% or $37.93, to $176.24 per share. Microsoft has gained +21.47% or +$89.87 to $508.45 per share. Apple has lost -2.45% or -$5.97 to $237.88 per share. The only doubt I have — Is now the right time to buy any of these 3 stocks when the US market is hitting new highs almost every day? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Rate Cut Spurs US Stocks Rally & US Economy ? Mon, 22 September. Pick post. Will NVDA Fall With China's "Ban" ? Fri, 19 September. Pick post. BRK.B: Unexpected Loser of Fed Interest Cut ! Fri, 19 September. Pick post. Do you think there will be one or two more interest cut in 2025? Do you think the 3 tech stocks are the best buy options now ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents