NVO is META in 2022
$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ is $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ in 2022
In 3 years, people will say, " I can't believe you could have bought $NVO for 15 P/E in 2025".
Here is my Investment Thesis:🧵
A modern building with the name Novo Nordisk in blue text on its facade. A Danish flag with a red background and white cross is flying on a flagpole in front of the building. The sky is clear and blue with some white clouds.
1/ GLP1s
NVO GLP-1 drugs, like Ozempic and Wegovy, are revolutionary!
They fundamentally change how obesity and type 2 diabetes are treated. Instead of just managing symptoms, they target the body’s appetite and insulin regulation, helping patients lose significant weight and improve cardiovascular and metabolic health.
2/ Ozempic
NVO Ozempic started the frenzy of GLP1s, with many celebrities getting slim thanks to it.
Ozempic lowers blood sugar and mimics the GLP-1 hormone. This leads to a reduced appetite, directly leading to weight loss.
Sales have grown from $276M ➡️ $20.2B
Demand is expected to rise as more people seek effective, long-term treatments for obesity and diabetes, and as growing evidence links these drugs to broader health benefits like reduced heart disease risk.
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3/ Wegovy
Wegovy contains the same active ingredient as Ozempic (GLP1s) but is formulated at a higher dose specifically for chronic weight management rather than diabetes control.
Sales have exploded from $212M ➡️ $11.6B
Demand for Wegovy will increase as it targets a much larger population. people seeking effective, medically approved weight-loss solutions.
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4/ Oral GLP1s
$NOVO is now pushing a 25 mg oral version of Wegovy, which would be the first oral GLP-1 for chronic obesity.
They’ve submitted to the FDA based on trials showing weight loss of ~13–17%.
It is less effective than injectables, but easier to take, and some people report milder side effects.
Oral Wegovy will dramatically expand the addressable patient population.
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5/ Next Gen GLP1
The next wave of $NBO pipeline Amycretin, a dual GLP-1/Amylin agonist, demonstrated potentially best-in-class weight loss efficacy.
Up to 23.9% at 36 weeks in early trials.
This positions NVO to leapfrog current competitive therapies and maintain premium pricing power in the high-potency injectable segment well into the next decade.
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6/ GLP1 TAM
The total global GLP1 market is projected to experience strong growth in the next decade as these medicines are extremely effective and safe.
Analysts at Fortune Business Insights forecast that the GLP1 market will grow with a 16.8% CAGR till 2032.
Reaching $187B!
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7/ Stock collapse
The 63% stock sell-off in 2024 and 2025 has been partially attributed to:
- Supply bottlenecks for Wegovy
- Competition from Compounding Pharmacies
- Trump's attacks on Pharma
- Trump's attacks on Denmark
NVO is actively working on 3 of them.
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8/ Supply bottlenecks for Wegovy
NOVO is aggressively expanding its manufacturing footprint by investing ~$9 billion in 2025 into new capacity for API production, fill-finish, and packaging to relieve bottlenecks.
It’s also acquiring and converting key fill-finish sites (buying Catalent) to control more of the pen-assembly stage and multiply Wegovy output.
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9/ Competition from Compounding Pharmacies
NVO made a huge mistake by underestimating the demand, and the CEO lost his job for it.
The FDA declared a drug shortage, which, under US law, enabled compounding pharmacies to create copies of Novo's GLP1 drugs. (Most famously $HIMS)
Now the shortage is over, and Novo is suing hundreds of companies and has already won some cases.
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10/ Trump's attacks on Pharma
A massive 1.4M square foot production expansion in North Carolina is expected to be finalized between 2027 and 2029.
The new plant will create more than 1,000 jobs in the US and help the company secure local supply for Wegovy and Ozempic.
This will help in case of tariffs.
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11/ Valuation
After all this trouble, $NVO trades for a P/E of 15.
A very attractive valuation for a company with a strong portfolio and pipeline of highly successful GLP1 obesity treatments.
As the GLP1 TAM reaches $200B in the next decade, NVO is uniquely positioned to get a meaningful slice.
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Don't be liquidation capitla guys