ππ° SOFI on the Move? Bulls Roar Back Before Earnings!
ππ° SOFI on the Move? Bulls Roar Back Before Earnings!
"If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed; if you do read it, you're misinformed" π© You may have read this aphorism some where. Despite all the negative news, I bought an option on SOFI yesterday and here is perosnal break down why SoFi Technologies ($SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ ) is getting attention again just before its 28 Oct earnings date.
Disclaimer βοΈ
This post reflects personal trading opinion, not financial advice. I'm not licensed by MAS or any regulatory body β this is for education only. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and consult professional before trading.
SoFi's been like that energetic friend who can't sit still β one moment sprinting higher, the next catching its breath. But the latest surge looks different. Let's dig in. π
π Quick Recap: What Just Happened
SoFi has been on a roller coaster π’ this year β surging from lows near $7 to highs above $30, then pulling back as bears growled about valuation. But on Friday's session, bulls stepped back in, pushing the price to $26.70 (+1.29%), with a hefty $1.02 B inflow β nearly matching outflows but showing buyers are fighting back.
Options traders joined the party too: the SOFI 2026 Jan 16 $26 Call popped +25% intraday, now sitting at $4.18, giving early birds about +14% unrealized gain.
That's not just luck β that's momentum meeting conviction.
π§ Fundamental Pulse
Despite negative headlines (π downgrades, compliance fines, valuation fears), SoFi keeps building its empire:
β’ π Record 772 M revenue last quarter, +33% YoY.
β’ π΅ Net income $71 M, proving profitability isnβt just a dream.
β’ π₯ Membership & product counts keep hitting records.
β’ π³ Fee-based businesses (invest, card, money) now taking center stage over traditional lending.
β’
Translation? SoFi's maturing from βjust another fintechβ to a diversified digital bank β exactly what Wall Street wanted to see.
β οΈ But Let's Not Ignore the Shadows
Even this tiger π has its stripes of risk:
β’ π Valuation stretched β P/S multiples higher than many regional banks.
β’ βοΈ Regulatory overhang β $1.1 M compliance settlement still makes headlines.
β’ π£ Macro drag β rate sensitivity, credit exposure, and potential delinquencies.
β’ π₯ Share dilution from compensation programs worries long-term holders.
β’ π¦ Competition from Cash App, Robinhood, and traditional banks getting tech-savvy fast.
So yes, thereβs glamour, but also some grind beneath.
π Technical Analysis: Where the Smart Moneyβs Staring
Let's switch on our trader goggles π
Chart Overview:
β’ The daily chart shows a rebound off the 50-day MA (~$25) β a key support zone that's held multiple times.
β’ The 20-day MA (~$27.23) is acting as near-term resistance; a breakout above it could signal a fresh leg up.
β’ Volume spiked π with 96 M shares traded, confirming participation.
β’ RSI (6/12/24) recovering toward 50β55 range β momentum's shifting from oversold to neutral-bullish.
β’ MACD histogram narrowing; if it crosses positive this week, we may see momentum ignition right into earnings.
π Technical Takeaway: Bulls defended $25; next upside target sits near $29β30 zone. A close above $27.50 could light the fire. Below $24.50? Bulls might retreat for cover.
π‘ Capital Flow Signals
From Tiger Brokers data:
β’ Total inflow $1.02 B, outflow $1.01 B β equilibrium but slightly tilted green.
β’ Big orders (institutional prints > $200 M) leaned bullish (228 M in vs 207 M out).
β’ Retail still active β small-lot inflows $666 M vs $695 M out β sign of quick profit-taking, not panic.
This shows institutions are accumulating quietly while retail is still cautious. Exactly the kind of divergence pros love before earnings π
π§ SWOT Snapshot
Strengths π
β’ Growing member ecosystem = built-in cross-sell machine.
β’ Revenue diversification cushions lending volatility.
β’ Management executing on profitability targets ahead of schedule.
Weaknesses π©Έ
β’ High expectations baked into the price.
β’ Exposure to credit risk and macro headwinds.
β’ Dilution risk via stock-based comp.
Opportunities π
β’ AI + automation to cut costs and personalize lending.
β’ Expanding into brokerage, insurance, and new banking verticals.
β’ Potential partnerships or acquisition catalysts post-earnings.
Threats βοΈ
β’ Rising defaults if economy slows.
β’ Fintech competition intensifies.
β’ Regulatory tightening on digital banks.
π Earnings Preview β Oct 28 2025
Traders are already eyeing this date like hawks π¦ . Here's what the market might judge:
If they crush expectations again, expect fireworks β possibly retesting $30+ within weeks.
π My Take β βCautious Bull Mode Activatedβ
I'm viewing this play:
π¬ βSoFi's setup reminds me of those classic pre-earnings momentum squeezes β sentiment shaky, charts oversold, but fundamentals still intact. You don't get many asymmetric setups like this.β
So, while doom headlines echo, the tape tells a different story. The smart money isn't shorting β it's nibbling.
That said, discipline beats hope:
β’ Trail stops on gains β volatility into earnings can chop.
β’ If we break $27.50 with volume, momentum traders could swarm in.
π Final Verdict
π― SOFI short-term bias: Bullish-to-neutral.
π Holding period: Through earnings (with caution).
𧨠Risk level: Moderate-high β perfect for experienced traders who love volatility.
@DCamel @Emotional Investor @ahyi @koolgal @TigerPicks @vodkalime @CaptainTiger @Terra_Incognita @TigerCoinCenter @Tiger_Academy
Modify on 2025-10-13 11:22
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I love SoFi