<Part 4 of 5> News and my thoughts from the past week (13Oct25) - Electricity, AI and more
News and my thoughts from the past week (13Oct25)
There is a $1.65 trillion wipeout in the market. It is not just about today. There can be some serious supply issues with the new Tariffs. Any margin call yet? China may not return to the table.
There have been a million signs that the stock market is disconnected from reality and a nasty crash was coming. You just weren’t looking in the right place. The economy has been crumbling since February, its just no one in the casino wanted to close the tables. - X user Craig Fuller.
China just hit back with export controls on 12 rare earth elements and now wants foreign buyers to get licenses too. Beijing controls 70% of rare earth mining, 90% of processing, and 93% of permanent magnet production. It also refines 100% of global samarium. Good luck building an F-35 without that. Each fighter jet needs 417 kilograms of rare earths.
This is the first time in 150 years that another country has the capability and courage to impose consequential sanctions on the US. China’s retaliation is a historic moment. I have warned about the American delusion many times. - X user S.L. Kanthan
Trump threatens China with export controls on Boeing parts - Reuters
A vertical bar chart titled S and P 500 Revenue Growth Year over Year Q3 2025 with Source FactSet at the bottom. The x-axis lists sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials, Real Estate, Utilities. The y-axis ranges from negative 5 percent to 15 percent in increments of 2.5 percent. Bars show growth rates: Communication Services at 14.9 percent (dark blue), Consumer Discretionary at 7.8 percent (light blue), Consumer Staples at 6.5 percent (light blue), Energy at negative 3.1 percent (light blue), Financials at 6.9 percent (dark blue), Health Care at 6.0 percent (light blue), Industrials at 5.7 percent (dark blue), Information Technology at 7.6 percent (light blue), Materials at 4.7 percent (dark blue), Real Estate at 2.4 percent (light blue), Utilities at 4.8 percent (light blue). Below the chart, percentage values are listed for each sector matching the bars.
FactSet - SPY is expected to report Y/Y revenue growth of 6.3% for Q3 2025, which is above the estimate of 4.8% on June 30.
About one in five (19%) of consumers say they paid less or skipped bills to get by in the past year, per Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - X user Unusual Whales
Each 1GW of AI computing capacity costs $50bn to deploy in today’s prices, according to OpenAI execs. By 2028, Morgan Stanley projects at least 65 GW of new data center demand. - X user ZeroHedge
ChatGPT has gone from <1 million weekly active users to ~10% of the world using the platform in ~3 years. - The Kobeissi Letter
America is in the middle of a massive construction shift. Over $40 billion worth of data centers are being built right now, up 400% since 2022. For the first time ever, data centers being built will outnumber office buildings. - X user Stock Market News
US electricity prices are at a record high. After your electricity bills doubled in the past year, they’re about to double again. Because someone has to pay for AI. In the next 10 years, AI power demand will QUADRUPLE. AI data centers will use 1,600 terawatt-hours of power by 2035. That’s 4.4% of ALL electricity on Earth. If AI data centers were a country, they’d rank 4th in electricity use—behind only China, the US, and India. - X user Andrew Lokenauth
Power demand from AI data centres to quadruple in 10 years, per Bloomberg
People are rushing to data center stocks but the real AI play is energy. Morgan Stanley predicts a 36GW power shortfall in the U.S. due to the expected data-center buildout over the next three years. We need to ramp up capacity + storage ASAP. - X user The X Capitalist
Is the AI Bubble going to CRASH like the 1990s Dot-Com? AI companies have created a “circular” network, where they invest in one another while also buying each other’s technology. This artificially inflates valuations, much like what happened during the Dot-Com era. - X user Global Markets Investor
The Bank of England warns of a sharp correction in markets if mood sours on AI or Fed. - X user Jesse Cohen
Trucking lawyer advises all trucking companies and brokers to cease working with all non-domiciled CDLs immediately. In his view, plantiffs attorneys will scorch any broker or carrier for hiring an illegitimate driver that uses these drivers. - X user Craig Fuller
“The AI bubble is the only thing keeping the US economy together,” Deutsche Bank has said per TechSpot.
56k US home purchases were cancelled in August, which equates to 15% of all homes under contract. That’s the highest cancellation percentage on record for the month of August. - X user Charlie Bilello
“Patient deaths increased in the emergency rooms of hospitals that were bought by private equity firms,” per Harvard University.
The world’s 3rd-largest bond market is breaking. - X user Global Markerts Investor
Commercial Real Estate Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.7%, the highest level in history - BarChart
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