Status Update on US-China Relations: Signs of Potential Thaw (as of October 13, 2025)
Status Update on US-China Relations: Signs of Potential Thaw (as of October 13, 2025)
President Trump's October 12 Truth Social post introduces a dovish tone amid escalating tensions, reassuring that "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!" He attributes Beijing's recent rare earth export curbs and port fees (effective October 14) to President Xi having a "bad moment," emphasising mutual interest in avoiding economic depression. Trump highlights US intent to "help China, not hurt it," preserving the possibility of a Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in South Korea starting October 31. This contrasts with his October 10 announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports (effective November 1, or sooner) and new export controls on critical software, which ended the May 2025 truce.
China's Commerce Ministry responded positively on October 13, describing Trump's comments as "constructive" and approving select civilian rare earth applications to mitigate supply disruptions, while defending its measures as "defensive." (Bloomberg)
No immediate countermeasures were announced, but officials reiterated readiness to "stand firm" if tariffs proceed. (Japan Times) Broader context includes an August executive order extending the tariff truce to November 10, capping rates at 30% on Chinese goods and 10% on US exports to shield holiday trade. (China-briefing). US imports from China are down 15.5% year-to-date, underscoring decoupling risks. Markets reflected optimism: S&P 500 futures rose 1.2% pre-open, Nasdaq futures +1.8%, with the VIX easing to 18 from 25 highs. Semiconductor and EV sectors led gains (+3%), buoyed by de-escalation hopes, though volatility persists ahead of APEC. (Reuters). Analysts note the post as classic Trump leverage—using public pressure for private concessions—potentially averting a full relapse into 2018-2019 war levels. (Reuters)
Key watchpoints: Beijing's next briefing and any envoy leaks, as mutual dependencies (US tech demand, Chinese exports) favour compromise over prolonged stalemate. Overall, tensions remain elevated but with a narrowing path to stabilisation.
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- miffsy·10-13TOPVery insightful update! Thanks for sharing! [Wow]1Report