To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 20Oct25)

Public Holidays

Singapore is closed on 20th Oct 2025 (Monday) as we join our citizens to celebrate Diwali (also known as Deepavali in Singapore). There are no holidays in the coming week for Hong Kong, China and America.

Here is wishing all a blessed “Festival of Lights”.

Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week

The following is a summary of key economic data releases anticipated in the coming week, categorised by region and topic. These indicators are likely to introduce volatility and inform policy expectations.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is projected to be the most closely watched economic indicator of the week, as it serves as a primary reference for US inflation. The outcome is expected to bring market volatility and will significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions. The Core CPI month-on-month is forecasted to increase by 0.3%.

Global and Regional Economic Growth

• China Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The third-quarter GDP figures for China are scheduled for release, with a consensus forecast projecting a 4.7% growth rate.

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - Global Manufacturing and Services:

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be released, serving as a key reference for global manufacturing activity.

• S&P Global Services PMI will provide insight into the demand for services.

• Any significant divergence from current forecasts in either PMI will likely affect the broader demand outlook for both manufacturing and service sectors.

Labor Market

• Initial Jobless Claims (US): The forecast for new jobless claims is 223,000, which marks an increase from the previous figure of 218,000. Fluctuations in this data point will be closely monitored for their potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy.

Real Estate Market

• Existing and New Home Sales (US): September’s data for both existing home sales and new home sales will be released. These figures offer a current assessment of the health and activity levels within the American real estate sector.

Commodities

• Crude Oil Inventory: The latest crude oil inventory recorded a change of 3.524 million barrels from the prior period. Substantial changes in the upcoming inventory forecast will be a key prelude to market consumption trends and will impact the short-term supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.

Earnings Calendar (20Oct25)

EARNINGS

We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Coca-Cola, Netflix, IBM, Intuitive Surgical, Tesla, Procter & Gamble (P&G), General Motors (GM), and Raytheon.

Who is Tesla?

Tesla’s business centres on accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

The company’s primary business is its Automotive Segment, which generates most of its revenue by designing, manufacturing, and selling electric vehicles (EVs) like the Model 3 and Model Y. Key aspects include a direct-to-consumer sales model, the proprietary Supercharger network, and the development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as a future recurring revenue stream.

The secondary, but growing, segment is Energy Generation and Storage. This includes the Powerwall home batteries and large-scale Megapacks, as well as Solar Panels and the Solar Roof. Investors view Tesla as a vertically integrated technology and energy company, not just a car manufacturer.

Tesla Stock Performance and Analyst Consensus

Tesla’s (TSLA) stock has demonstrated significant year-over-year growth, appreciating by over 99% in the past twelve months.

Despite this strong price performance, both technical analysis indicators and analyst sentiment currently maintain a “Neutral” recommendation for the stock. The average analyst price target is set at $366.77, which implies a potential downside exceeding 16.5% from the current valuation.

Revenue and Profitability Growth (2015-2024)

• Revenue and Gross Profit: Annual revenue demonstrated robust growth, escalating from $4.04 billion in 2015 to $97.89 billion in 2024. Gross profit followed a similar trajectory, expanding from $924 million to $17.45 billion over the same period.

• Operating Performance: A significant financial turnaround occurred, with the operating result moving from a $717 million loss in 2015 to a substantial operating profit of $7.76 billion by 2024.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): The company achieved sustained profitability, moving from a negative EPS of -$0.46 in 2015 to a positive $2.04 in 2024. Notably, the highest single-year EPS was recorded in 2023 at $4.30.

Financial Metrics and Valuation

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The business exhibits a high P/E ratio, currently standing at 239.3. This metric is cited as potentially misleading for comparative analysis, given the company’s vertically integrated and multi-faceted business model, which spans beyond a single sector.

• Leverage and Liquidity: The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 suggests a potentially elevated level of financial leverage that warrants scrutiny.

• Cash Flow Efficiency: The ten-year median free cash flow margin is noted at 3.8%, indicating a moderate level of cash generation efficiency relative to sales.

The consensus forecasts for the forthcoming earnings report are an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.537 and a Revenue of $28.22 billion.

Beyond these immediate financial metrics, the focus shifts to the broader macroeconomic environment and its resulting impact on the business outlook. It is prudent to view the underlying business fundamentals with caution due to several significant external factors:

1. Macroeconomic Headwinds: Persistent global macroeconomic uncertainty, including potential interest rate volatility and inflation, continues to impact consumer demand for big-ticket items, such as vehicles.

2. Trade Tensions and Geopolitics: The recent escalation in global trade tensions, particularly concerning key international markets and supply chains, presents a material risk to the forward outlook. Increased tariffs or retaliatory measures could impact production costs, margins, and market access.

A thorough analysis of the earnings call and financial commentary will be necessary to assess how management plans to navigate these macro and geopolitical challenges, which are critical drivers of the company’s future performance.

I recommend monitoring Tesla’s performance and adding the stock to our shortlist.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (20Oct25)

Technical observations:

• MACD analysis indicates a bearish trend.

• The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. The 3 EMA lines are converging, which implies a reversal from the current uptrend.

• Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term.

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.15, indicating an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods.

Technical indicators currently show 12 “Buy” and 7 “Sell” signals, resulting in an overall “Neutral” recommendation on the daily interval.

Candlestick Trend Analysis (using Grok & Gemini)

Overall Interpretation

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish with caution. The Dragonfly Doji and Upside Gap Three Methods signal continued bullish momentum, but the recent +0.53% close on modest volume hints at a potential consolidation or minor pullback. The rally from 5,300 to 6,664.01 (25% gain) is strong, but overbought conditions (e.g., RSI ~70) could prompt profit-taking.

• Long-Term Trend: Bullish. The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star from May remain key bullish anchors, with the price 25% above the 2025 low (5,345.01). The Evening Star (June 22) was a temporary top, overcome by the recovery, pointing to a target of 7,000+ by year-end (aligned with analyst forecasts).

• Market Sentiment: Bullish, driven by AI/tech gains and Fed rate cut expectations, but the PE ratio (~31) signals overvaluation risks. October’s historical strength (average +1.5% over 5 years) supports upside.

Outlook for the Coming Week (October 20–24, 2025)

• Expected Movement: Bullish continuation, targeting 6,750–6,800 if volume increases. Support at 6,500 (recent base); resistance at 6,800 (psychological). A pullback to 6,500 is possible if profit-taking occurs early in the week.

• Risks: A Bearish Engulfing could form if selling resumes, retesting 6,500 or 6,300. Monitor earnings season (e.g., tech reports) and inflation data for volatility.

• Recommendation: Favour longs above 6,500; trail stops at 6,450. The patterns support upside, but watch for confirmation via volume on any pullback.

The patterns confirm a robust bullish trend, with the S&P 500 poised for further gains amid positive sentiment, though short-term consolidation is possible.

Combining the above, I lean towards a bearish outlook, though news and other macro matters can add to the volatility.

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Oct25)

Jenson says Nvidia goes “from 95% market share to 0%” in China, and that he “cannot imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea. Whatever policy we implemented caused America to lose one of the largest markets in the world to 0%. ”In a separate interview, he effectively says that he might have lost the US in the AI race. Because, as he puts it, “winning” the AI race means that “80% of the world uses the American tech stack” and that, given that China on its own is “50% of AI research” and “30% of the technology market”, then them not using the American tech stack means that by definition America is “forfeiting and conceding” the AI race. In that separate interview he also completely ridicules the narrative - used by the US to justify the export controls - that they were to prevent “dual use” of advanced Western chips for military purposes by China, saying that “no government, surely the Chinese government, is going to be building their defense on Western technology nor does the Pentagon use Chinese chips to build our national security.” So to sum up: in a foolish attempt to slow China’s AI development, not only did the US lose its largest market, but it may have lost the AI race itself.

When the military war has ended, the economic, political and other social conflicts will give to light. With corruption and destruction, Ukraine is likely to slip into domestic turmoil. Let the war end, and rebuilding to start.

The US Government is now on track to shut down for more than 40 days, the longest shutdown in history. This means the current shutdown is expected to last 5 TIMES longer than average.

CNBC Markets news webpage screenshot displays headline CEOs of Wells Fargo and Pfizer caution the US could lose its edge to China without innovation, published October 15 2023. Key points section notes Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said AI boosts productivity but will likely reduce workforce size. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla warned China is closing biotech patent gap rapidly and said the US needs to focus on innovation. Article by Luke Fountain includes share icons.

Confidence in fiat currencies has collapsed. As a result, absolutely no one wants cash right now. In fact, cash allocation for institutional investors is down to 3.8%, the lowest percentage in 12 years. The Fed will soon lose its independence, rate cuts are coming into stagflation, and global debt jumped +$14 TRILLION in Q2 2025, to a record $337.7 trillion. You are either buying stocks at record highs, piling into gold and silver, or buying crypto. Meanwhile, corporations are investing hundreds of billions into AI and governments will soon join the AI arms race, prompting more money printing. This is exactly why we have been constantly stating to “own assets or be left behind.” Fiat currencies are losing their purchasing power and asset owners are looking to defend against it in any way possible. As investors, we can only play the hand we are dealt. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

The British Labour Party PLUMMETS to a historic low with only only 15% latest poll. This is their LOWEST vote share they have ever gotten since modern polling began. People are rejecting Socialism. Source: Find Out Now poll.

Central banks are cutting rates as if there is a RECESSION: 82% of world central banks have cut rates over the last 6 months, the highest share since the 2020 CRISIS. In the past, such a large percentage has only been seen during economic downturns. - X user Global Markets Investor

Regional bank stocks

Oxford researchers just confirmed what we feared: The internet as we knew it is dying. AI content went from ~5% in 2020 to 48% by May 2025. Projections say 90%+ by next year. Why? AI articles cost <$0.01. Human writers cost $10-100. But the real crisis is model collapse. When AI trains on AI-generated content, quality degrades like photocopying a photocopy. Rare ideas disappear. Everything converges to generic sameness. It’s recursive. Today’s AI slop becomes tomorrow’s training data, producing worse output, which becomes training data again. - X user Ask Perplexity

Every year, the average American worker puts about $8,500 into their 401(k). - Stock Market News

In 1929, one ounce of gold was priced at $20.67 in US Dollars. At that time, $1 could buy 0.0484 ounces of gold. Today, with gold at $4,200, $1 buys just 0.00024 ounces. That’s a 99.5% DROP in purchasing power. - X user Global Markets Investor

Reliability and consistency are traits of a leader. America is working hard to crown another.

China’s exports rose an annual 8.3 per cent last month, customs data showed on Monday, beating a 6 per cent increase in a Reuters poll and registering the fastest growth since March. This is despite 27% decline in exports to USA. - CNA

Bar chart titled Weekly fund flows to Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2x Shares displaying vertical green and red bars representing net inflows and outflows in millions of dollars over time periods from October 2023 to October 2025. The y-axis ranges from -75 to 150 with labels at intervals. The x-axis marks Oct. Oct.23 24 25 Oct. A prominent red vertical bar at the end indicates 132 million dollars inflow. Source Factset noted at bottom.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) says by 2028, all U.S. data centers together could use between 325 and 580 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power every year. =325,000–580,000 GWh per year That’s roughly the power used by 30–50 million homes. A normal modern U.S. nuclear produces ≈ 8,000 GWh per year. 580,000 GWh ÷ 8,000 GWh = about 73 plants The U.S. would need 40 – 70 new nuclear reactors (each 1 GW) to power just the electricity data centers might use by 2028 — if we tried to run them entirely on new nuclear energy. Reality Check : The U.S. has only added two new reactors in the last 30 years. Building even one new reactor takes 10 + years with today’s rules. So adding dozens by 2028 is basically impossible. - X user Shashank Sindhe

Due to passive investing now larger than active “fewer and fewer people are actually making a market in stocks using their brains. Most, as indexers, are just blindly buying.” - X user Sven Henrich

Screenshot of Politico news website homepage under News and Health Care sections showing headline 1 in 6 infections now resistant to antibiotics with subtext Resistance to commonly used drugs rose over 40% in five years, a WHO report found. Includes navigation elements like Home, Latest news, French political crisis, EU-US relations, and login button.

My Investing Muse (29Oct25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

• Nearly 6% of Nestlé’s global workforce is disappearing. The world’s biggest food company is laying off 16,000 workers in the next 2 yrs... Here’s the breakdown: 12,000 white-collar jobs 4,000 roles cut in manufacturing + supply chain They say this is a shift to automation and shared services... it’s not quite what I am seeing being built up right now. - X user Amanda Goodall

• San Diego-based trucking company Epic Lightning Fast Service LLC plans to shut down all operations permanently on Oct. 31 and lay off all 116 of its workers, according to a WARN notice that the company filed with the State of California, FreightWaves reported.

• The Vero Beach, Florida-based airline Verijet had filed for bankruptcy after amassing over $38.7 million in liabilities and faced a slew of lawsuits. - The Street

CNA - Over 4100 Fed workers have been laid off

Layoffs news from Intellizence

Layoffs News from CNBC

The above are some of the news about debts, closures and bankruptcies.

My final thoughts

Leverage ... Taking a risk that you shouldn’t for something that you are not prepared for.

US Fiscal and Trade Policy Risks

A US government shutdown presents a significant domestic fiscal risk. According to analysis by The Atlantic, a prolonged shutdown scenario carries the potential to impact economic growth materially and could ultimately serve as a catalyst for a national recession.

Market Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions

Current actions by the US government are contributing to a re-escalation of global trade tensions. The administration’s renewed focus on trade disputes is effectively attempting to exert pressure on the international community. This approach is anticipated to generate unreasonable demands from the US, resulting in heightened volatility and uncertainty across global financial markets.

The Future Trajectory and Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI remains an enduring, transformative technology and will form a crucial component of future economic activity. However, the current period of intense AI interest may evolve into a phase of disappointment as not all invested businesses realise their expected returns.

This dynamic is projected to drive sector consolidation, leading to a market structure where a few dominant firms flourish alongside successful niche players.

• Technological Disruption: Several traditional sectors face significant disruption. This includes core enterprise software segments like Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), where AI innovations challenge the existing paradigm.

• Shifting Enterprise Architecture: The fundamental question for many organisations is whether a comprehensive, company-wide enterprise system remains necessary or if a shift to several smaller, AI-enabled modules is more efficient.

• Strategic Human Positioning: While traditional vendors will integrate AI into their offerings, the most critical long-term strategic factor for all businesses will be the correct positioning of human interactions within these new AI-driven solutions.

Portfolio Strategy

Given the confluence of geopolitical, economic, and sector-specific risks, it is strongly recommended that we immediately proceed with establishing hedging positions to diversify and mitigate the overall risk exposure within the existing portfolio.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$