To The Moon

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 results after market close on November 5, 2025. The market consensus expects growth both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, with a strong focus on the company's diversification beyond smartphones.

The sentiment is cautiously optimistic, driven by the company's recent strategic moves into the AI data center space and continued growth in its non-handset segments.

Qualcomm (QCOM) Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Qualcomm reported its fiscal Q3 2025 results on July 30, 2025, with performance generally hitting the high end of their guidance range, demonstrating the success of its diversification strategy amid continued, albeit slow, growth in its core mobile business.

Key Segment Performance

Chipset Segment (QCT) Revenue: $9.0 billion (Up $11% YoY).

Automotive: Reported record revenue of $984 million, surging +21% year-over-year.

IoT (Internet of Things): Showed strong growth, up +24% year-over-year to $1.68 billion.

Handsets: Revenue grew at a slower pace, up +7% year-over-year to $6.3 billion.

Licensing Segment (QTL) Revenue: $1.3 billion, showing a modest +4% year-over-year increase, but maintaining high profitability with a 71% EBT margin.

Shareholder Return: The company returned $3.8 billion to stockholders through dividends and an accelerated share repurchase program, reinforcing its commitment to its capital return policy.

The results validated the company's long-term strategy, with the high-growth, diversified segments (Automotive and IoT) driving the overall top-line growth.

Lesson Learned from Q4 2025 Guidance

The primary lesson from Qualcomm's Q3 2025 earnings report and subsequent Q4 2025 guidance centers on the stock's focus shifting from past performance to forward-looking catalysts and execution.

Key Takeaway: Focus on Diversification Momentum, Not Just Handset Slowdown

The most significant lesson learned is that for QCOM, investor sentiment is increasingly driven by the success of its diversification and new growth ventures (Automotive, IoT, and now AI), which are now beginning to effectively compensate for and eventually eclipse the volatility in the Handset segment.

In the Q3 report, the Handset revenue growth was notably slower than the other segments, but the stock reacted positively (up 2% in aftermarket) because:

Automotive & IoT Momentum: The strong double-digit growth (>$20% YoY) in Automotive and IoT provided proof that the diversification strategy is working and is on track to hit its fiscal 2029 revenue targets for these segments. This established a foundation of reliable, high-growth revenue.

Strategic Focus on AI: Management repeatedly highlighted its position in "AI at the Edge" and the increasing adoption of its Snapdragon platforms for on-device AI (like with Samsung's "Galaxy AI"), signaling its next major growth vector, which was later reinforced by the AI data center chip announcement in October.

Conservative-to-In-Line Q4 Guidance: The Q4 revenue guidance of $10.3 billion to $11.1 billion was seen as achievable and conservative, implying a modest sequential recovery in handsets for the holiday ramp-up. The market accepted a mixed near-term outlook as long as the long-term, high-growth story (diversification and AI) remained intact and executed well.

In summary, the lesson is: Qualcomm is evolving from a pure-play mobile stock whose trajectory was dictated by the volatile smartphone cycle, to a diversified tech platform whose valuation is now more sensitive to the execution and growth rates of its new, high-margin ventures like Automotive, IoT, and AI infrastructure.

This shift means that in the upcoming Q4 report, investors will be looking less for a Handset miracle and more for concrete progress and optimistic forward commentary on AI and the continued expansion of the non-handset business.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

The core focus will be on the Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT) chip division's segmental performance and the forward-looking guidance.

1. Handset Revenue and Outlook (QCT Segment)

What to Watch: Handset revenue in the QCT segment.

Why it Matters: Despite diversification, Handsets remain Qualcomm's largest revenue stream and a traditional source of volatility. The market will be looking for signs of a recovery in global smartphone demand, especially in the China market, which was a point of weakness in prior reports. Strength here could provide a significant lift to the stock.

2. Diversification Growth (Automotive and IoT)

What to Watch: Year-over-year revenue growth for the Automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) segments within QCT.

Why it Matters: This represents Qualcomm's key long-term growth story. Continued double-digit growth in these segments provides evidence that the company is successfully diversifying its business and becoming less reliant on the volatile mobile market.

3. AI Chip Strategy and Design Wins

What to Watch: Commentary on the recently announced AI200/AI250 data center AI chips and any early sales or "design wins."

Why it Matters: The late-October AI chip announcement caused a significant spike in the stock price, as it puts QCOM in direct competition with major AI players. Any tangible updates or upbeat forward commentary on this push will be a major catalyst for the stock's long-term re-rating.

4. Forward Guidance (The Most Important Metric)

What to Watch: Management's revenue and Non-GAAP EPS guidance for fiscal Q1 2026.

Why it Matters: The market often reacts more strongly to the guidance (what the company expects to earn next quarter) than to the actual results for the quarter just ended. Strong Q1 2026 guidance, particularly if it signals robust demand for its chips during the holiday season or continued growth in non-handset areas, is crucial for a positive post-earnings move.

5. Licensing Revenue and Margins (QTL Segment)

What to Watch: Revenue from the Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL) segment and overall gross margins.

Why it Matters: QTL is a high-margin, consistent cash generator. Any significant change in royalty flows or licensing commentary could impact the company's overall profitability and cash flow. Investors will also monitor if the higher-margin Automotive and AI sales can offset any pricing pressure in the handset market to support overall gross profit margins.

Qualcomm (QCOM) Price Target

Based on 29 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Qualcomm in the last 3 months. The average price target is $181.21 with a high forecast of $225.00 and a low forecast of $140.00. The average price target represents a 0.27% change from the last price of $180.72.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity Post-Earnings

Qualcomm's stock tends to experience significant volatility immediately following its earnings release, presenting opportunities for short-term traders.

The Bull Case (Opportunity for Long/Buy):

• The most bullish outcome would be beating the consensus estimates for Q4 and, critically, providing an upbeat Q1 2026 guidance that is well above analyst expectations.

• Specific Positive Triggers: Strong growth in Automotive/IoT, or highly positive commentary on the new AI data center chips (e.g., announcing a major customer win).

• Likely Reaction: A sharp move upward, potentially gapping up in the aftermarket/premarket session.

The Bear Case (Opportunity for Short/Sell):

• The most bearish outcome would be missing consensus or meeting estimates but providing disappointing Q1 2026 guidance (especially if below the low end of expectations).

• Specific Negative Triggers: Further significant weakness in the Handset segment or cautionary language about China demand, supply chain issues, or competitive pressures (e.g., from Samsung's Exynos or MediaTek).

• Likely Reaction: A sharp move downward, likely erasing recent gains tied to AI news.

Given the recent surge in the stock due to the AI chip news, the market's expectation for future growth is high. The stock's reaction will heavily rely on the forward guidance and commentary about AI and Handset recovery. A simple "in-line" result might be viewed as a disappointment given the recent run-up, leading to a temporary pull-back.

Summary

Qualcomm is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on November 5, 2025. The market focus is split between the performance of its core handset chipset business and its emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) diversification strategy.

Consensus Estimates: Analysts generally anticipate Non-GAAP EPS around $2.75 to $2.95 and revenues in the range of $10.3 billion to $11.1 billion, showing moderate year-over-year growth.

Key Focus Areas: Investors will closely watch the management commentary on:

• AI Strategy: Updates on its new AI data center chips (AI200/AI250) and progress in the AI PC and AI Smartphone segments, which are seen as crucial growth drivers.

• Handset Demand: Clarity on the recovery of the smartphone market, especially in China, and its impact on the high-margin Snapdragon premium tier.

• Diversification: Continued momentum in the Automotive and IoT (Internet of Things) segments, which have been key to its non-handset revenue growth.

A beat on guidance, coupled with an optimistic outlook on AI and sustained growth in new markets, is expected to be a positive catalyst for the stock, which is currently seen by some analysts as undervalued relative to the semiconductor industry.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think QCOM AI strategy which is on new AI data center chips (AI200/AI250) and its continued momentum in the Automotive and IoT (Internet of Things) segments, could give a much significant earnings.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.