XIAOMI-W: Downtrend Persists as Safety Concerns Keep Bulls on Hold
$XIAOMI-W(01810)$
HK$43.42 (-2.91%): 29% off peak as EV-safety panic pushes price back into HK$42–45 support zone
Market Recap (as of Oct 31, 2025):
Xiaomi closed around HK$43.4, down ~2.9% on the day and now roughly 29% below its 52-week high near HK$61.5.
Volume is slightly below its recent average, suggesting persistent but not panicked selling.
The slide follows weeks of headline risk around fatal SU7 EV crashes and door-safety concerns, which triggered Xiaomi’s worst weekly drop in years and amplified regulatory scrutiny of electronic door handles.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
On the daily chart, price sits well below the falling 20- and 50-day EMAs (≈HK$47 / 50), confirming a short-term downtrend. MACD is negative and beneath the signal line while RSI hovers near 30, an oversold region where prior sell-offs have started to stabilize;
with today’s moderate volume, this favors a weak bounce or sideways consolidation around HK$42–46 rather than an immediate trend reversal.
If parabolic-SAR/trend signals stay above price while EMAs slope down, rallies toward HK$47–50 are likely to meet supply, with a deeper support band near HK$40 and then HK$38.
Valuation-wise, Xiaomi trades at a TTM P/E ≈27–28, close to the S&P 500’s current multiple (~28) and only modestly above its own recent 4-quarter average around 26.
Consensus 12-month targets cluster in the HK$60–65 region (Yahoo Finance 1-yr target ~HK$63.6), with more bullish houses such as DBS previously flagging upside scenarios toward HK$80 if EV and smartphone growth normalize.
For the coming week, base case is volatile range-trading between HK$42 and HK$50; a daily close below HK$42 would reopen downside to the high-30s, while reclaiming and holding above HK$50 would be an early signal that the market is starting to look past EV-safety noise.
Risk & disclaimer: Xiaomi is highly sensitive to EV accident headlines, regulatory changes and China macro sentiment; moves can be sharp in both directions.
This note is for technical reference only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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