To The Moon

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Framing the final weeks of 2025

At this stage of the calendar, the debate is not about who is “right” — it is about risk-adjusted asymmetry.

Bull side — still supportive

Fed’s path is now well-telegraphed; cuts anchor cost of capital lower into 1H25.

Q3/Q4 earnings have, on balance, leaned to upside revisions.

Cloud + AI infra spending shows resilience (capex guidance still rising).

This means the floor is stronger than pessimists admit.

Bear side — tactical fragility

Valuations are extended; forward multiples are not cheap.

Positioning is no longer light — many already chased beta in Q3.

Year-end VaR adjustments and tax-loss harvesting can inject disorderly flows.

My characterisation: The upside is still possible — but it is now incremental, not explosive.

So the “more intelligent” question shifts from:

> Will indices make new highs?

to:

> Is the next +3% worth the risk of a -5% shock?

Practical navigation (professional tone-down, not hype)

Investor posture Appropriate stance

Already in profit scale-out partials, keep exposure but trim tail-risk

Underweight risk use pullbacks rather than chase strength

Hedging short-dated index put spreads become more attractive than outright shorts

A balanced Q4-close approach:

keep core exposure intact;

hedge the tail, not the base case.

There is still some room to climb — but this is the season to run with a seatbelt on.