To The Moon

SoftBank's complete sale of its $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ stake valued at $5.8 billion, in October 2025. It was announced in early November and appears driven primarily by a strategic pivot to massively invest in OpenAI and broader AI infrastructure projects, rather than by concerns specifically about NVDA's fundamentals or prospects. SoftBank's CFO highlighted the sale as part of ongoing capital reallocation to : Fund large AI commitments, including up to $30 billion into OpenAI. Invest in new AI data centers like the Stargate project. Despite this sell-off, Nvidia’s stock remained near all-time highs, supported by record earnings and strong forward guidance from key hyperscale customers like Microsoft and Meta. Market reaction to SoftBank’s sale was relatively muted, indicating investor confidence in Nvidia’s durable AI leadership and solid revenue streams, especially its high-growth data center GPU business. In contrast, Michael Burry, famous for his bearish bets in the past, has publicly challenged the sustainability of NVDA’s earnings and AI spending by hyperscalers. Burry's main criticism accused AI hyperscalers (Nvidia's main customers) of : Using aggressive accounting and inflating profits derived from massive hardware investments. Artificially boosting earnings by extending the depreciation schedule of AI hardware investments, that typically have a short (2-3 year) product cycle. (see below) Burry said in his “X” post: Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings is one of the more common frauds of the modern era. Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment. Looking at above SEC filing table, it is evident that the useful life of hardware has increased by up to 3 years, depending on the company. Burry’s serious allegation is — the useful life in numbers in the filings has grown over the years because companies have figured out that earnings would look better that way, not because the GPUs can work 6 years (realistically, 3 years at most). This directly targets the core of NVDA's growth narrative: the sustainability of demand from companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. This accounting approach, if validated, could lead to a painful reckoning as companies eventually have to face the true depreciation costs, impacting NVDA’s future demand visibility and valuation. Burry has taken significant put option positions against NVDA's stock and remains bearish, reflecting skepticism about AI valuation sustainability amid aggressive capital expenditures by Nvidia’s customers. More importantly, there is a part-2 to this saga as announced by Burry on “X” - where he said that “more detail” will be coming on Tue, 25 Nov 2025 and readers should “stay tuned” The latest news that Burry was deregistering his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, adds complexity. This could either mean: He is winding down the position, removing the selling pressure. He is simply moving to a family-office setup to manage capital privately, and his positions would no longer be publicly disclosed. Stock Movement. NVDA's stock price has experienced increased volatility over the past month, with a sharp decline following SoftBank's divestment and renewed concerns over AI market sustainability. On Fri, 14 Nov 2025, it managed to recover as investors anticipated strong Q3 earnings driven by robust AI chip demand. Market sentiment remains positive, with NVDA outperforming peers due to its leading position in the AI hardware segment. YTD, NVDA has gained +42% since start of 2025, far outpacing the gains of the benchmark S&P 500 index. Quarterly Earnings Forecast. As for NVDA’s impending Q3 2025 earnings announcement on 19 Nov 2025, the consensus from market analysts and recent revenue forecasts are optimistic. Nvidia is expected to report: Revenues : around $53 - 54 billion with strong margins; that will be a +55% YoY gain. Earnings per share : $1.25 - 1.26; that will be a +51% YoY gain. Gross margin: expected to be 73.5% with analysts closely watching this number for signs of cost pressures or pricing stability, especially given the intense demand and supply constraints. Forward Guidance (Q4): For the stock to stage a recovery and move higher, guidance for current quarter will be the most critical factor. Analysts are currently eyeing Q4 revenue around $61.4 billion. This will be driven by continued high demand for AI chips from cloud providers expanding generative AI capacities. Although some analysts caution about a possible slowing growth rate in certain Compute segments, overall growth should remains solid, with NVDA maintaining a lead position in the AI hardware ecosystem. For that, $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ has raised its price target on NVDA to $265.00 from $220.00 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The price target increase reflects Wells Fargo’s updated outlook for NVDA’s future performance, particularly in its data center business, that is benefiting from continued momentum in hyperscale capital expenditure. Given these expectations, it is likely Nvidia will stage a strong recovery or maintain its valuation momentum post-earnings, barring any major negative surprises in guidance or macroeconomic factors. Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. DKNG - Buy Now Before It Blastoff ? US Shutdown Ends - Dow Up, NVDA Down. Broadcom a Better Bet than S&P 500 Index ? Do you think AI-related stock will continue to correct this week ’? Do you think NVDA will soar even higher after earnings release on 19 Nov 2025 ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents