Long-Term Winners Are Exceptionally Rare
From 2015-2025, only 166 companies in the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ grew their share price by more than 13% per year (beating the index).
Only 15 companies grew by more than 30% per year.
Only 6 companies grew by more than 40% per year.
Only $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ grew by more than 70% per year.
What's the lesson here?
The perfect company exists at the intersection of high growth and predictable growth. Here’s my mental model:
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