The short-term pullback I called for is now playing out. I'm leaning toward more downside before the market finds support. 📉 Two key scenarios to watch for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Path 1: Weekly support at 7,350–7,275. Path 2: If that support zone breaks, a deeper correction toward 7,000 comes into play. The bigger picture remains unchanged: my long-term target is still 10,000. ⚠️ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ JUST DROPPED 200 POINTS — RIGHT INTO THE TARGET The sell signal was sent. The setup: • Bearish SMT divergence with $YM at the prior week's high. • iFVG trigger confirmed the short setup. • A sharp Wave 3 decline followed, matching the projected path. This setup combines the SMT Model wi
$ES Sell Signal Triggers: A Third-Wave Decline Could Be Next
The bearish setup is now active. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ has triggered a sell signal after several technical factors aligned: bearish SMT divergence against $YM at the prior week's high, followed by an inverse Fair Value Gap (iFVG) entry trigger. The weekly chart is adding another warning. 📉 $ES: The Bearish Case Three signals are lining up: 1️⃣ Bearish SMT: $ES and $YM showed relative weakness at the previous week's high, signaling a potential loss of upside momentum. 2️⃣ iFVG Trigger: Price subsequently confirmed the bearish setup through an inverse Fair Value Gap, providing the entry signal. 3️⃣ Weekly Candle Sweep: The weekly chart also printed a bearish sweep, adding higher-timeframe confirmation to the setup. 🎯 Downside
$SPX Hits FVG Resistance as $GOOGL Short Delivers +11.64%
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ tagged fair value gap (FVG) resistance and broke above the trendline drawn from recent highs, only to sell off sharply after hours. The current bias favors another move lower, with a daily close below 7,702 serving as the key trigger. Meanwhile, the $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ short setup shared on October 16 has delivered a +11.64% gain, with targets reached after earnings. 👇 🔻 $SPX — Key Levels to Watch 📍 Resistance: The daily FVG is expected to cap the next bounce. 📉 Bearish lean: A potential next wave down. 🎯 Trigger: Daily close below 7,702. ⚠️ Context: ES has already swept last week’s high, so SPX may not need to revisit that level. 💰 $GOOGL — Short Trade Update: +11.64% The October 1
The rally may have more room to run, but don't mistake a bounce for a confirmed uptrend. 👀 📉 What I'm Watching Early weakness tomorrow could bring a dip before the FOMC decision. The downtrend line drawn from the recent highs remains intact and has not yet been broken. After a potential pullback, the FOMC could trigger another push higher toward last week's high and daily fair value gap (FVG) resistance at 7,754. ⚠️ The Bigger Picture I'm still leaning toward another move higher in the short term, but this remains a corrective rally—not a confirmed trend reversal. The key is how price reacts around resistance. A rally into 7,754 doesn't automatically mean the market has turned bullish. 🎯 My Plan: Watch for early weakness first, then see whether the FOMC provides the catalyst for another le
🔻 SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rejected daily resistance, just as expected. The October low target has been hit. ✅ Now watch for one quick bounce into the 7,660–7,690 daily gap. That zone should attract sellers again. 🎯 Next downside target: 7,558 — the equality target. ⚠️ If SPX breaks above 7,690, expect a larger bounce before another leg lower toward the September low. 📅 FOMC Wednesday. Stay alert. 🚀 THE ROAD TO 10,000 Short term: Pullback. Big picture: Still targeting 10,000. Two possible paths from here: 🟢 Path 1: Shallow Dip SPX pulls back to 7,400–7,300, finds support, then makes one final push higher. 🔴 Path 2: Deeper Correction The rally from 2022 is complete, and SPX drops toward 7,000 before the next major move. 🎯
📊 Smart Money Zones have delivered mixed results this month. Some setups failed despite strong historical track records, while others are already paying off. 🟣 $Hut 8 Mining Corp(HUT)$ — Watching for a Bounce $HUT is sitting at the top of its weekly Smart Money Zone. Historically, this area has acted as a long-term buying signal about 70% of the time, often preceding a rebound. The stock has historically returned to its $140 swing high within 8–12 months. 🎯 Optimal buy zone: ~$59 🛑 Stop loss: Below $42 🔻 $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ — The Setup Failed Last month, I was extremely bullish on $CIFR as it pulled back into the weekly Smart Money Zone. Historically, price often bounces from this level and returns
$WTI Crude Oil - main 2612(CLmain)$ broke through its March highs — and the oil trade played out exactly as planned. I said oil wasn't done, the equal highs were the magnet, and a continued rally in crude would put pressure on equities. That's exactly what happened. Oil pushed to new highs while stocks sold off, following the scenario I laid out. 📈 The trade was executed live: Ticker: $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ Entry: $152.79 on Oct. 13 Exit: $168.58 Return: +10.33% The setup was built around the W4/W5 structure, with equal highs serving as the upside target. The key was identifying the likely path before the breakout and sticking to the plan as price moved toward that level. The oil thesis playe
$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ Called the five waves down. Called the ABC bounce. Called the rejection. Right on script. 🎯 Next targets: Equal lows September low, where the downside targets align The 5-3-5 model is playing out. $ES SHORT CALLED LIVE AT 10:13 AM Three checks lined up: ✓ Bearish ABC bounce ✓ Higher-timeframe candle sweep ✓ Trigger confirmed Both targets hit. That’s the ABC Model in action. 📊 Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets on edge this week, investors are once again thinking carefully about where to position next. There’s no one-size-fits-all choice in investing — and the same goes for Tiger Me
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just hit daily resistance right into the gap, while the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ divergence near the highs raises another warning. Another push higher? Sure, it’s possible. But the bigger picture hasn’t changed. 🎯 My target: October lows. The next multi-week move is likely lower. Don’t confuse a short-term bounce with a trend reversal. Stay disciplined. Respect resistance. Let price action confirm the move. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets on edge this week, investors are once again thinking carefully about where to position next. There’s no one-size-fits-all choice in
$SPX Relief Rally Fading? Next Move Could Be Lower
The latest setups point to downside risk for equities, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ potentially running out of room to rally while oil continues to push higher. Here’s what I’m watching. 👇 📉 $SPX — Relief Rally May Be Over Five waves down. Three waves up. That’s a bearish structure, suggesting the relief rally could be nearing its end. 🎯 Key levels to watch: 7,616: Equal lows and the first downside target September low: The next potential target if support gives way Even if we see more upside first, daily resistance could cap the move. The bias? Lower, unless price action proves otherwise. ✅ The Previous $SPX Low Call The low was called at 8:59 AM, with an ABC move into the target. The setup combined: Higher-timeframe candle sweep Bullish divergence A