SPY 5th Wave Ends, Pullback Into 7046–6845 FVG Ahead of FOMC
A pullback is coming. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is completing its 5th wave. Bearish SMT divergence printed at the prior week high against $DJI. Below today's low confirms it. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is expected to decline into the Weekly FVG at SPX 7046–6845. This isn't a crash setup. It's a shallow 2nd wave pullback before the multi-week rally begins. FOMC tomorrow is the catalyst. Not the optimal trading conditions, but sitll crushing. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ shorts in the AM $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ longs in the PM Members up $2k before noon. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but sh
SPX Prints Bullish Weekly FVG: Buy Zone 7,046–6,845, Target 7,400–7,650
Took the week off knowing would see a tight range week. The bull case needed one thing → a new bullish weekly FVG. Now it's printed. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ multi-week buy zone: 7,046–6,845 Pullback into the zone = BUY. Next wave → 7,400–7,650. Weekly close below 6,845 sends the sell signal. This week's theme was simple. Buy the lows. Sell the highs. That's exactly what we did. Sunday → upside. Tuesday → upside. Thursday → flush. Both sides. Both called. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
The upside objective today was the all-time highs on $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ . Price formed a bullish M30 FVG support. Textbook bullish SMT → iFVG buy signal FIRED. 175+ points later — NQ at all-time highs. Members BANKED. ✓ $S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ outlook dropping later. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ and NQ are about to tag their 2026 highs. Those are profit taking levels. The bearish SMT with $YM is still intact at ATH. What does that mean? ES/NQ are sweeping the highs while YM is FAILING to confirm them. That's a pullback signature. Short-term pullback se
New highs in SPX and NDX, but cross-index divergence suggests caution
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ just made new all-time highs. Time to buy? Not yet. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ is lagging — failing to confirm with a new ATH. That's a bearish SMT divergence. DJI is also at Weekly FVG resistance. Watch for a pullback here. Our lean: SPX all-time highs were the path of least resistance. We got the pullback. Called the support zone. Price pushed to all-time highs. That's the process. Called the top. ✓ Called the bottom. ✓ Thought the bounce would fail. It didn't. I'll own it. New ATHs are coming first. 7400–7650. Then the 20% correction. 6200–5700. All before 2027. Not wrong on the destination. Early on the path.
The key level is $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ 6733 / $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 6700. Here's why. In EW 2.0, it's all about proportions. The W2 (or B-wave) correction in this rally pulled back 2.25%. The rule: in a valid 5-wave trend, W4 must be equal to or smaller than W2 in PERCENT and/or TIME. Any decline greater than 2.25% breaks the proportion — and with it, the bullish count. That level also sits on the midpoint of the massive FVG. Support STACKED on support. Hold above it, this is a bullish W4 → W5 continuation. Break below... this wasn't a rally. It's the beginning of something much lower. Sixty-seven-three-three.
$SPX B Wave Strength May Be Setting Up a Bigger Move
Deep retracements lead to extended waves. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just retraced 78.6% of the decline. Bulls see strength. I see a B-Wave loading the SPRING. The deeper B goes — the longer C tends to run. Primary targets: 110% → primary 127.2% → high probability 161.8% → extension in play The channel is drawn. The count is set. A 161.8% C-Wave would MIRROR the 2025 extension. History doesn’t repeat. It extends. And every time $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tags the upper channel stretching back to the 2009 bottom — It gets REJECTED. 2011. 2014. 2018. 2022. 2025. Five touches. Five rejections. Zero exceptions. You know what follows every single one? Mean reversion to the channel midpoint - at MINIMUM. 2026 ju
$SPY at Extremes: Every Prior Touch Triggered a Pullback
Every time $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tags the upper channel stretching back to the 2009 bottom — It gets REJECTED. 2011. 2014. 2018. 2022. 2025. Five touches. Five rejections. Zero exceptions. You know what follows every single one? Mean reversion to the channel midpoint - at MINIMUM. 2026 just became touch #6. Number six won't be different. Blaming Elliott Wave is like blaming technical analysis for a bad trade. The framework didn't fail — the PRACTITIONER did. Almost everyone is awful at it. But the one time they apply it CORRECTLY, at the right time? They're not reading charts anymore. They're holding a crystal ball. One taste of that precision and you're HOOKED.
The bearish reversal has been building. Just one piece was missing... Today we got it. Bearish Monthly SMT Divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . NDX is the ONLY index to cross the March High. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ didn't. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ didn't. If this divergence persists — this Monthly candle gets ERASED. The setup just got a lot more complete. This is what SMT divergence looks like on the micro. SMT at the high of day with $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ . Reversal to London Low. 20 straight points — on a choppy range day. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ is down -33%. NDX just rip
Do or Die for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . $SPX has officially traced out a valid 3-wave structure → equal in length of the initial leg up. If another leg down is coming, this is the spot. CPI is the catalyst. Plain and simple. Daily close below 6618 → higher degree sell signal fires. Any peak-to-trough decline of 2.05% or more marks the largest pullback of the rally off the lows — the earliest tell the advance is complete. Sustained rally/close above 6855 (78.6% retrace) would be a bullish warning. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$