Part 4 of 5 - news and my thought (01Dec25)
News and my thoughts from the past week (01Dec25)
CME just halted ALL futures trading because of a cooling failure at their data centre. Read that again… the entire derivatives market froze because a server room got too hot. This is the same market that moves trillions, sets global prices, and hedges entire economies. - X user Manpreet Kailon
THE SNEAKER MARKET JUST COLLAPSED - AND NOBODY KNOWS WHY. A sneaker shop owner says the entire market “died overnight.” And the numbers are insane - X user HustleBitch
2026 Warning: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections. Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8%. After the midterms, all is well, but before? - BarChart
Retail investors are rewriting the market playbook: Individual investors are now on track for their 23rd consecutive monthly net purchase of stocks. This is only behind the 32-month streak posted between April 2020 and November 2022. Furthermore, retail has been a net buyer of ETFs for 158 consecutive trading days. Retail investors have net sold ETFs in just 6 days since the beginning of 2024. All while individual investors have purchased more call than put options on net for 29 consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record. Individual investors are redefining markets. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
The US Treasury posted a $284.4 billion deficit in October, the worst opening month to any fiscal year in history. This exceeds the previous record of $284.1 billion in October 2020, during the historic pandemic response. Government spending jumped +18% YoY, to $688.7 billion, bringing the 6-month moving average up to ~$590 billion. To put this differently, US government expenditures averaged ~$22.5 BILLION per day last month. The deficit spiral is accelerating at a record pace. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
US market leverage is absolutely MOONING: US margin debt SPIKED +$57 BILLION last month, to $1.2 TRILLION, the highest EVER. Margin debt has seen the biggest surge since the 2000 Dot-Com MANIA, of nearly +40% in 6 months. Investors are buying stocks on leverage more than EVER. How will this furious rise in speculation end? - X user Global Markets Investor
HSBC built a model to figure out if OpenAI can actually pay for all the compute it’s contracted. The answer is no. OpenAI has committed to $250 billion in cloud compute from Microsoft and $38 billion from Amazon, bringing contracted compute to 36 gigawatts. Based on the total deal value of up to $1.8 trillion, HSBC estimates OpenAI is heading for data centre rental bills of about $620 billion a year, though only a third of that capacity comes online by 2030. - X user Hedgie
The US freight recession is getting WORSE: The Cass Freight Index, a key measure of freight volumes, PLUNGED to the lowest level since the FINANCIAL CRISIS. Shipments fell -4.3% M/M in October, while the Y/Y decline widened to -7.8% - X user Global Markets Investor
David Sacks has said: AI-related investment accounts for half of GDP growth. A reversal would risk recession. We can’t afford to go backwards. - X user Unusual Whales
Without continued AI investments, U.S. GDP growth would collapse in half. - Polymarket
AI debt is SKYROCKETING: US Big Tech stocks’ bond issuance hit $108 BILLION so far in 2025, an all-time high. This is 5 TIMES more than in 2024 or 2023. Importantly, this does not include the off-balance sheet debt through Special Purpose Vehicles, which is also surging. - X user Global Markets Investor
U.S. Banks are now sitting on $337 billion in unrealised losses as of Q3 2025 (FDIC report today) - BarChart
A.I DEBT BUBBLE: Amazon (AMZN): The highest total debt at $160.4 billion. Microsoft (MSFT): Total debt stands at $120.4 billion, Meta Platforms (META): $51.1 billion in total debt, Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL): $44.2 billion total debt, CoreWeave (CRWV): Total debt at approximately $14 billion (extreme leverage- Insurance spreads have skyrocketed and default bets sit at 40% next 5 years). Oracle (ORCL): Total debt reached $111.6 billion (insurance spreads have rocketed recently) - X user The Great Martis
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