To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 08Dec25)

Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

The JOLTS report for September is anticipated to show a modest decline in job openings, with a consensus forecast of 7.2 million compared to the prior reading of 7.227 million. This release has the potential to introduce short-term market volatility as participants gauge the pace of cooling in the labour market.

U.S. Treasury Auctions

Upcoming auctions for the 10-year note and 30-year bond will provide critical insight into current market sentiment. The results will serve as a key indicator of investor appetite, signalling either a continued preference for safety (flight to quality) or an increased willingness to embrace risk-taking in the bond market.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decision

The FOMC is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision. Market consensus currently forecasts a reduction in the Federal Funds Rate to 3.75%, down from the previous 4%. Any deviation from this expectation is highly likely to trigger significant market volatility. Furthermore, the FOMC’s accompanying economic projections will be closely scrutinized as a vital barometer for the central bank’s outlook on the economy.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims are projected to increase to 221,000, a notable rise from the preceding figure of 191,000. Market reaction to this data will be crucial in determining whether the increase is interpreted as a concerning weakening trend in employment or a minor fluctuation.

Earnings Calendar (08Dec25)

Several notable companies are scheduled to report their earnings in the coming week, including Campbell’s, Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco.

Let us take a look at Oracle.

Technical and Analyst Sentiment

Oracle currently receives a “Buy” recommendation based on technical analysis. Analysts also hold a positive view, assigning a “Buy” rating. The consensus price target stands at $332.29, which implies a potential upside of 52.72% from current levels. While these signals point toward optimism, it’s noteworthy that Oracle’s share price has risen by 13% over the past year.

Financial Performance

Oracle’s revenue has shown substantial growth, rising from $37 billion in 2016 to $57 billion in 2025. Over the same period, operating profit increased from $13.1 billion to $18 billion. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) have more than doubled, advancing from $2.07 in 2016 to $4.34 in 2025. Dividends per share also saw a marked increase, moving from $0.60 in 2016 to $1.70 in 2025.

Valuation and Financial Health

Oracle’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently 49.9. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio stands at 3.8, which may warrant attention due to its elevated level. However, Oracle maintains healthy margins, with the 10-year median for free cash flow (FCF) at 30.8% and gross profit margins at 79%.

Oracle’s P/E (49.9) is currently higher than the direct Software industry average approx 31.5-34.0. This multiple suggests that investors are pricing in strong future growth expectations, primarily driven by the company’s aggressive transition to its high-margin Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and Fusion Cloud ERP platforms. (Source: Gemini)

The above are some of the recent news stories surrounding Oracle.

The earning’s forecast are $1.65 and $16.19B for Oracle’s EPS and revenue respectively.

Given the above data, I prefer to monitor the business for now. While it has maintained profitability and decent cashflow, there is much expectation for future earnings and its debt deserves some attention.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (08Dec25)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

Following the recent bottom crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is now signalling an uptrend. This suggests a potential shift in momentum toward bullish sentiment as the indicator moves higher.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and 200 MA lines are themselves trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines have recently converged and are now showing an upward trajectory. This convergence and subsequent uptrend further support the case for continued bullish momentum in the market.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.17 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.

Based on technical analysis at the daily interval, the S&P500 is currently rated as a “Strong Buy.” 20 technical indicators support this positive outlook, each signalling a “Buy” recommendation. Notably, no indicators are suggesting a “Sell” at this time. This consensus among technical indicators reinforces the overall bullish sentiment.

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is showing a “Fear” rating (40), recovering from the "Extreme Fear” rating from a week ago.

S&P 500 Outlook Summary (Candlesticks via Grok)

Short-term (1–4 weeks): Bearish to neutral – pullback likely toward 6,600–6,700 due to multiple high-reliability bearish reversal patterns.

Long-term (3–12 months): Remains bullish, but growing caution – uptrend intact unless 6,600 support breaks.

Given the above, it is likely that the S&P500 should trend upwards (bullish in the short term).

News and my thoughts from the past week (08Dec25)

The richest 10% of Americans hold two-thirds of household wealth, according to the Federal Reserve, averaging $8.1 million each. The bottom 50% hold 3% of wealth, with an average of just $60,000 to their names. - Unusual Whales

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“Goldman Is Pitching a Risky $500 Million Deal to Finance Shareholder Payout” Another PIK play. Bloomberg reports Goldman Sachs is pitching private credit lenders a risky $500 million payment-in-kind note for a Canadian firm it owns. Bloomberg says Goldman wants to borrow $500M with a “pay later” loan so it can pull the cash out as profit for itself. The company gets stuck with more debt. - Bloomberg

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Car repossessions are on track to hit 3 million in 2025, matching Great Recession levels and making it the third-worst year on record. Q2 alone saw 706,393 repossessions, the largest Q2 volume ever recorded. Auto loan delinquencies are at their highest since 2010, with subprime rates at the worst since 1994.

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‘The Big Short’ investor Michael Burry says a major market crash is coming.

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US margin debt spiked +45.2% YoY, to a record $1.18 TRILLION in October 2025. In the past, such an aggressive rise has been seen before major market tops. - X user Global Markets Investor

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Buy Now, Pay Later usage surged this Black Friday, rising 9% overall, with adoption especially strong among younger consumers: 41% of shoppers aged 16–24 used BNPL, and younger millennials increased their usage by an astonishing 87% compared with last year. Higher-income households are leaning in as well, with 38% of those earning over $100,000 using BNPL services. Notably, the trend is expanding beyond discretionary items — 25% of BNPL users are now relying on it to finance groceries, per Reuters

More than 2.2 million vehicles have already been repossessed this year, with the total expected to exceed 3 million by the end of 2025. - CBS News

My Investing Muse (08Dec25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

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US nonfarm employment fell by 9,000 in November, marking the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, according to Revelio. The firm compiles data from company career pages, such as LinkedIn and Indeed, and staffing agencies. This comes as private employment dropped 19,400 while the government added +10,400 jobs. Furthermore, October’s decline was revised sharply lower, by 6,400 jobs, to 15,500. This brings the total downward revisions to 158,800 over the last 4 months. Nonfarm payrolls have now posted 5 declines over the last 7 months, the worst streak in at least 5 years. Deterioration of the job market is accelerating. - Revelio

Denny’s is closing 150 locations in the coming weeks, according to PennLive. - Syracuse

US bankruptcies are running at RECESSION levels: US large bankruptcies rose to 655 YTD, the most in 15 YEARS. This is higher than in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. October, Sept, and Aug saw 68, 66, and 76 filings, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. - X user Global Markets Investor

U.S. layoffs totaled 71,321 in November and reached 1.17 million this year. It’s the most since 2020, and a 44% increase from 2024. Recent Layoff Announcements: UPS: 48,000 employees; Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees; Intel: 24,000 employees; Microsoft: 15,000 employees. 2026 will be the year of mass unemployment.

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10 Roads, one of the largest postal linehaul operators, shutters. The fleet had 2500 trucks and 2600 drivers. This shutdown is one of the largest trucking failures ever and the largest since Yellow filed bankruptcy in 2023. Nearly 5000 employees will be out of work.

AI & Data Centre

Here are some of the news surrounding AI and the Data Centre. If America wishes to lead, the innovations need to be backed by the right policy and adequate infrastructure. Here are some of the recent news items that raise concerns about AI’s development.

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A staggering 180GW chasm between planned data centre capacity for actual development capacity. - X user ZeroHedge

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“If we don’t have energy growth, we can’t have industrial growth. If we don’t have industrial growth, we can’t have job growth. It’s as simple as that.” - Jensen Huang on Joe Rogan

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“The AI boom is looking more and more fragile,” per WSJ

53% of investors now believe AI stocks are already in a bubble, per Bank of America

My Final Thoughts

The current low success rate of AI pilot programs (around 5%) suggests that the immediate financial returns from AI initiatives may be less lucrative than anticipated. This situation raises a key question: Will these returns deter investors who are expecting high profitability?

Despite these setbacks, the drive for greater AI adoption among companies is increasing. This leads to another important question: Will the underlying demand and urgency for AI eventually outweigh the disappointments and low pilot success rates?

A notable trend is the disparity between public pronouncements and actual outcomes: companies are often quick to announce their “AI journey” while remaining silent about their AI failures.

Finally, the broader market context is optimistic: the market is anticipating an upcoming interest rate cut, which is expected to boost market liquidity and potentially offset caution regarding AI’s current returns.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Oracle(ORCL)$

$Costco(COST)$

$Adobe(ADBE)$