To The Moon

Today isn't just another green or red day on the screen – it"s FOMC rate-cut day, and the market has already been pricing in soft landing perfection for weeks. When expectations are this high, the reaction often matters more than the decision.

I'm watching three layers: macro reaction, mega-cap flows, and high-beta trades.

1. Macro: Three Paths After the Cut

🟢 Scenario A – Dovish & Done (Bullish risk assets)

Powell signals confidence in disinflation and hints that cuts will be gradual, not panicky.

Yield curve stabilises, the dollar softens, and we likely see a classic everything rally into year-end – growth, tech, and even small caps.

In this scenario, I expect momentum to resume in AI leaders and quality growth.

🟡 Scenario B – Dovish but Worried (Choppy, rotation)

Fed cuts, but tone sounds nervous about growth, sparking 'Is the Fed behind the curve?' chatter.

We could see a whipsaw: initial spike in indices, then rotation into defensives, utilities, and value while high-multiple names cool off.

Great environment for selling premium or fading intraday overreactions.

🔴 Scenario C – Hawkish Surprise (Volatility spike)

Fed cuts less than expected or emphasises that future cuts aren’t guaranteed.

Yields back up, and high-beta names, AI, EVs, unprofitable tech, could see sharp de-risking.

Here I'd prioritise capital preservation, tight stops, and maybe even short-dated hedges.

2. Mega-Cap Radar: NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, AAPL

From Tiger's Top Options list, liquidity is screaming where the crowd is:

🔷 NVIDIA (NVDA) – Nerve centre of the AI trade

NVDA is still the sentiment barometer for AI.

If the cut is seen as growth-friendly, watch for continuation in data-centre optimism and call-side flows.

But if yields spike, NVDA is also a prime candidate for a fast, mechanical de-leveraging move – I'll be watching how it behaves vs QQQ in the first 30–60 minutes.

🔷 Tesla (TSLA) – Sentiment + Gamma playground

TSLA usually magnifies the macro mood.

Dovish read: traders may chase a short squeeze style move with weeklies.

Hawkish read: it quickly turns into a source of liquidity as funds trim risk.

For me, TSLA is a trading vehicle, not a hero-trade, on FOMC days.

🔷 Amazon (AMZN) & Apple (AAPL) – Quality shock absorbers

These two often act as safe growth: strong cash flows, cloud / services engines, and less binary than pure AI plays.

If we get Scenario B (choppy, worried), I expect more stable relative performance here vs the wilder names.

3. Vol, Fintech & Data: SOFI, PLTR, VIX

🟣 SOFI – Rate-sensitive fintech

A cut helps the narrative for borrowers and credit conditions.

I'm watching loan-growth commentary and credit spreads: if risk sentiment stays healthy, SOFI can benefit from better growth, easier money expectations.

🟣 Palantir (PLTR) – Data + AI defence angle

PLTR sits at the intersection of AI and defence/government spend.

If the macro stays risk-on, there's room for continuation flows as funds rotate into AI + real contracts, not just hype.

🟣 VIX & Vol products

FOMC days tend to pump realized volatility.

If we see a big intraday spike that quickly fades, selling rich vol after the event (not before) can be interesting.

If vol stays bid into the close, that's a message: the market doesn't fully trust the Fed's path.

4. My Game Plan

1. Trade the reaction, not the headline.

I'll wait to see how the first 15–30 minutes after the statement + presser shapes up before sizing in.

2. Tiered watchlist:

Tier 1 (core FOMC plays): NVDA, TSLA, QQQ, SPY, VIX products.

Tier 2 (quality growth): AMZN, AAPL.

Tier 3 (higher beta satellites): SOFI, PLTR and selected small caps only if Scenario A shows up.

3. Risk first, profits second.

No averaging down blindly on a macro day. If price action contradicts my thesis, I'm out. There will always be another setup – there's only one account.

How are you positioning into this cut – trading the spike, fading the move, or sitting in cash with popcorn?

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!