The 2026 rate-cut dots in the Federal Reserve's dot plot refer to the median projections from FOMC members for the number of anticipated interest rate reductions in 2026, as shown in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released alongside FOMC meetings. Following the December 2025 meeting, these dots indicate a median expectation of two 25-basis-point cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to around 3.00%-3.25% by year-end, reflecting a cautious approach amid sticky inflation, softening labor markets, and uncertainties like tariffs.
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