The NASDAQ remains in a Bearish zone, justifying a continued Sell
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$
1. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
The long-term trend zone remains Bearish, and the strategically appropriate position continues to be “Sell and Observe.” This zone is historically associated with lower expected returns and elevated downside risk, even during intermittent rebounds.
The Sell and Observe position has been maintained for 4 days, during which the cumulative return stands at +1.1%, confirming that risk has been effectively managed while allowing flexibility during the rebound phase.
Importantly, there is now a 53% probability of entering a Bullish zone within 5 days, which represents a notable improvement in medium-term conditions.
➡️ Analyst Insight:
While long-term exposure should remain cautious, the improving probability profile suggests that investors should prepare for a potential regime shift rather than remain purely defensive.
2. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
From a short-term perspective, the NASDAQ is still technically in a Bearish zone, but price action clearly indicates the early formation of a rebound trend. Buy–Sell intensity has shifted abruptly toward buying dominance, even within bearish conditions.
Based on today’s closing price, the appropriate short-term stance is “Buy and Hold.” The next ideal buying window is expected in 2 days, between Dec 22 and Dec 23, with a favorable entry level near 23,344.6. Additionally, a projected selling window is identified in 8 days, between Dec 30 and Dec 31, near 24,363.3.
Average closing price when rising: +0.7%
High–Low range: +1.0% ~ -0.2%
Average closing price when falling: -0.8%
High–Low range: +0.5% ~ -1.1%
➡️ Analyst Insight:
Short-term participants can maintain exposure while remaining alert to abrupt intensity shifts, which may temporarily increase volatility.
3. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights
The 10-day outlook strongly favors upward continuation:
Directional Ratio (Down : Up): 1 : 9
Projected Price Range: 23,284.3 ~ 24,225.1
Expected % Change: -0.1% ~ +3.9%
Median Forecast Price: 23,754.7 (+1.9%)
Trend reversal probabilities indicate Today and approximately 9 days from now as potential inflection points.
➡️ Interpretation:
The forecast suggests a high likelihood that the rebound phase persists, with limited downside risk relative to upside potential over the next two weeks.
4. Comparison to Previous Daily Forecast
Relative to prior forecasts, the current trend level remains deeply Bearish at -88%, yet the expected average trend level over the next 10 days has improved to +17% (Bullish). This divergence reinforces the view that the market is forward-looking a regime change, even before the official trend zone shifts.
5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts
The NASDAQ is transitioning from a selling-driven decline into a buying-supported rebound phase. Although the long-term trend classification remains Bearish, improving momentum, rising Bullish probabilities, and a strong upside-biased forecast suggest that downside risks are diminishing rapidly.
Volatility remains elevated due to sudden Buy–Sell intensity shifts, but the broader risk–reward balance is now tilting favorably.
6. Investment Strategy Summary.
The NASDAQ remains in a Bearish zone, justifying a continued Sell and Observe posture for strategic allocation. However, short-term conditions support a Buy and Hold stance, with defined buying and selling windows ahead. With a 53% probability of entering a Bullish zone within 5 days, the index is approaching a potential inflection point that warrants close monitoring and tactical readiness.
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