To The Moon

Gold at ~US$4,500 reflects an unusually powerful convergence of macro forces. Whether US$5,000 is reached in 2026 depends less on speculation and more on whether these drivers persist.

Will gold hit US$5,000 in 2026?

Plausible, but not guaranteed. A move to US$5,000 would require several conditions to remain aligned:

Monetary policy: If the Fed delivers two cuts and real yields stay compressed, gold remains structurally supported.

Geopolitics and fragmentation: Ongoing geopolitical risk and reserve diversification by central banks are long-duration tailwinds.

Currency confidence: Persistent fiscal deficits and debt monetisation narratives favour gold as a store of value.

However, upside is unlikely to be linear. A stronger US dollar, delayed cuts, or risk-on equity sentiment could trigger sharp pullbacks even within a bullish trend. In short, US$5,000 is achievable, but volatility will be high.

How to trade it: futures, ETFs, or leveraged ETFs?

This depends on time horizon and risk tolerance.

Gold ETFs (e.g. GLD, IAU)

Best for most investors. Clean exposure, lower behavioural risk, suitable for medium to long-term positioning.

Gold futures

Appropriate only if you are experienced. Capital-efficient and precise, but margin calls and overnight volatility can be unforgiving.

Leveraged ETFs (e.g. 2x or 3x)

Tactical instruments only. Path dependency and decay make them unsuitable for holding through volatile trends like gold’s current phase.

Bottom line

If your thesis is structural and spans 2026, plain ETFs or a modest physical allocation are the most sensible. Futures are for disciplined traders. Leveraged ETFs should be used sparingly, if at all. Gold’s bull case remains intact, but risk management matters more now than earlier in the cycle.