To The Moon

In 2025, the center of gravity in artificial intelligence (AI) has shifted. Silicon Valley may have kindled the first sparks of the AI boom, but the real allocators of power and profit now sit with the US government and its agencies. The new AI era is being framed less as a technology story and more as a national‑security and infrastructure project. Because of this, the Trump administration’s industrial policy, Pentagon roadmaps, and multi‑trillion‑dollar infrastructure ambitions are quietly determining which listed companies emerge as lasting winners. Specifically, the incumbent ruling party has began to make use of executive orders, funding programs, and defense planning to channel capital into a narrow set of strategic bottlenecks. The Washington Kingmakers. Throughout 2025, there were reports on how the Trump administration has on shored AI boom through strategic capital deployment. Washington is no longer just a regulator; it is a lead investor with a massive, vested interest in US-listed companies. The "Trump Effect" has created a series of vertical stock explosions: $Intel(INTC)$ : On 22 Aug 2025, US government bought a 9.9% stake. By late October 2025, INTC has surged by +77%. $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ : On 10 Jul 2025, US Department of Defense (DoD) became a major shareholder (15%). By mid-October 2025, MP has surged by +228%. $Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$ : On 01 Oct 2025, US Department of Energy (DoE) took a 5% federal stake. 3 weeks later, LAC jumped by more than +227%. $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$: On 06 Oct 2025, Department of War (DoW) invested $35 million for a 10% equity stake. Similarly TMQ rocketed by +400% in just one week. Antimony Corp (UAMY): On 23 Sep 2025, Defense Logistics Agency secured a 5-year, sole-source contract valued at up to $245 million with UAMY soaring more than +270% in 90 days. $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$: On 30 Sep 2025, US Department of Energy (DoE) selected OKLO for its advanced nuclear fuel line pilot program. YTD, OKLO has surged +281.88% (as of 22 Dec 2025). Reshaping US Economy The "Pentagon Roadmap" and the massive $8.9 trillion AI Infrastructure Plan are primary engines of this reshaped US economy landscape. By turning Biden's 9 Aug 2022 CHIPS Act grants into direct ownership, the Trump government is ensuring that INTC, the last US foundry standing, is 'too big to fail’ now. Rise Of The Phoenix? And just like that, INTC has moved from being a laggard of the last cycle to one of the most strategically leveraged names for the next. To further improve INTC’s fate, reports have surfaced that INTC is in the process of securing a contract with the world’s most "favoured" device maker - $Apple(AAPL)$ . INTC-AAPL Deal: The 2 analysts covering the INTC-APPL deal are: TF Financial, Analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo. GF Securities, Analyst, Jeff Pu. Ming-Chi Kuo reported: Earlier in the month, INTC and $Apple(AAPL)$ are in talks for a partnership. INTC would manufacture some of AAPL’s custom designs (M6 or M7 chip) for MacBook Air and iPad Pro devices, starting in 2027. On 28 Nov 2025, the two have signed a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) to evaluate the efficacy of INTC’s 18A node for this purpose. INTC's prospects look promising as the company appears to be on the right track, aided by federal government investments and key technological improvements. Although bullish sentiments in INTC does not depend on a manufacturing partnership with AAPL. But such a deal validates INTC’s IDM 2.0 strategy and at the same time, boost its foundry revenue; that is up to now, negligible. Jeff Pu reported: AAPL is expected to enter into a manufacturing agreement with INTC for production (not design) of certain iPhone chips starting in 2028. These chips would be used in “non-Pro” iPhone models (eg, iPhone 20 & iPhone 20e). This would represent significant progress for INTC, beyond supplying M6 / M7 chips for MacBook Air and iPad Pro devices. Based on Pu’s expectations, INTC will use 14A nodes to manufacture chips for AAPL. Technically the 14A nodes is equivalent to $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$’s N2 chips. Naturally, it is reasonable to expect a single wafer to be priced between $20,000 and $25,000. Positive Financial Impact. Apple is expected to ship 245 million iPhones in 2025, with nearly 50% being 'non-Pro' models. If Intel is able to capture just 25% of those orders, they could see a $5 billion revenue boost, assuming a wafer price of $20,000 - $25,000. This would make INTC’s Foundry business profitable for the first time in the company’s history. Lastly, Pu noted that the INTC-AAPL partnership is a geopolitical necessity. By diversifying away from TSMC for certain chips, AAPL is securing its supply chain based on new US trade mandates. Technical Analysis: As of 23 Dec 2025 endday On the eve of Christmas eve, INTC closed down at $36.35 per share. It is still well above the YTD low ($17.67) but below its high of $43.76 ( achieved on 3 Dec 2025). Suffice to say, the stock is still in a broad uptrend for 2025, despite recent pullback. Moving Averages (MA). The 20‑day MA is roughly $38.90 and the 50‑day MA about $38.0, both above INTC stock price, which signals short‑term downside pressure after a strong rally. The 200‑day MA is near 27.0, far below price, showing the long‑term trend is still up, with a sizeable cushion before that trend would be at risk. Relative Strength Index (RSI). The 14‑day RSI is in the low of “43.44“, which is neutral and slightly weak. This means INTC is neither overbought nor oversold and is cooling off, from earlier strength. This RSI zone often matches consolidation or mild correction rather than a strong reversal, so momentum is pausing rather than signaling a major breakdown. Volume and Liquidity. Recent daily volume is around 35–40 million shares vs INTC’s average that is near 100 million (for 2025). This imply latest pullback is happening on lighter‑than‑average trading. The lower (than usual) trading volume also suggest that big investors are "waiting & seeing" rather than rushing to buy or sell before the year ends. YTD Stock Price Movement. INTC’s YTD chart shows a big rise from the teens to the mid‑40s. Then a pullback into the mid‑30s. The curve looks like a strong advance, followed by a normal correction within an uptrend. In the short term, it looks more like a Rounded Top or a Descending Channel. Analysts’ Ratings & Price Targets. Below are INTC’s most recent ratings and price targets: KGI Securities, Head of Research, Derek Chang : Outperform (upgraded from Hold) and $52. Tigress Financials, CIO, Ivan Feinseth: Buy rating with $52 target. TD Cowen, Snr Research analyst, Joshua Buchalter: Assigned “Hold” rating & price target $38 (from $35) My viewpoint : (mine only) Year-to-date, the stock has gained +79.77% (as of 23 Dec 2025). Technically, it has broken out of a multi-year base, with the RSI indicating strong momentum as it targets the $50 resistance level, heading into 2026. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, INTC has revitalized its turnaround strategy by securing multi-billion-dollar investments from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ($5 billion) and SoftBank ($2 billion), while achieving high-volume manufacturing on its critical 18A process. The potential landmark deal to produce chips for AAPL is pivotal for INTC. The contract will provide the manufacturing scale INTC requires, to re-establish itself as a serious contender in the global AI race. Securing a major win with AAPL, will also act as a catalyst for a broad wave of analyst upgrades. Current negotiations between INTC and AAPL bring their relationship to a poetic, ironic "full cycle". How so ? In 2005, a then-fledging AAPL’s Steve Jobs approached INTC, CEO Paul Otellini to manufacture chips for its upcoming first-generation iPhone. INTC, then king of the tech world, famously "turned their noses" at the newcomer, believing AAPL’s volumes would never justify the cost. That arrogance drove AAPL to build its own silicon empire with $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$. It marked a missed opportunity for INTC in mobile silicon early on and enabled the Taiwanese firm to dethrone it, eventually. Fast forward 20 years, it is happening again. This time though, the roles have flipped. INTC is (now) the "Follower," auditioning for a slice of AAPL’s business, to prove it can still compete in the AI era. Should it secure the AAPL contract, INTC will finally produce the mobile and AI chips it turned down 20 years ago. The only difference now? AAPL is the leader, and INTC is the follower. Without a doubt - Karma is a bitch. It will be a massive win, if Intel can secure the AAPL contract, no question about it. I’m confident they’ll close the deal. Agree? Due to creative differences and bias, I will scale back my posting. 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