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Market Crosscurrents at Year-End, Commodity Breakouts Accelerate as Rotation Persists 🎄📊📈
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$Micron Technology(MU)$ Bullish $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bullish $Target(TGT)$ $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ Bullish 26 Dec 2025 🇺🇸 | 27 Dec 2025 🇳🇿 Intraday Market Pulse 📊📉 I’m watching markets digest gains through rotation, not risk distribution. In thin post-holiday trading with volumes running roughly 29% below average, price action lacked urgency but not intent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near 48,674, down -0.12%. The S&P 500 sat near 6,931, slipping just -0.01% after briefly tagging fresh record highs earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite held a modest +0.03% gain at 23,620. The tape reflected sector reshuffling rather than directional selling. Breadth confirmed the rotation. NYSE advancers lagged decliners with an A/D ratio of 0.78, while Nasdaq breadth softened to 0.67. Despite that, new highs continued to exceed new lows, particularly on the Nasdaq. This remains consolidation within an uptrend rather than a breakdown. Volatility firmed modestly, with VIX lifting above 13.8, up just over 3%. I interpret this as front-end hedging demand rather than fear. Yields were steady, the dollar softened, and commodities diverged sharply. Gold pushed to fresh all-time highs near $4,570. Silver surged more than 5%, while copper rallied nearly 4.7% toward $5.84, reflecting tightening supply dynamics and rising inflation hedge demand. I’m convinced the divergence between consolidating equities and surging commodities is deliberate. Liquidity pockets are holding, and institutional flows are rotating, not exiting. Fed Watch and Global Policy Divergence 🏦🌍 I’m watching a clear divergence emerge between US patience and global tightening pressure. There were no Fed surprises today. The US curve continued to flatten modestly as markets price a higher for longer terminal rate with patience at the front end. Real yields remain elevated but stable, allowing equities to consolidate without structural damage. What matters now is global contrast. The Bank of Japan governor highlighted further progress toward the 2% inflation target and signalled potential additional rate hikes into 2026. That tightening bias stands in contrast to the Fed’s wait-and-see posture and is already feeding into currency dynamics. The US dollar logged its weakest weekly performance since June, while the yuan strengthened past 7 per dollar as China’s central bank eased resistance. I believe this policy divergence is quietly supporting commodities, weakening the dollar, and reinforcing inflation hedge demand without destabilising broader risk assets. Corporate and Strategic Catalysts 🧠🏭 I’m focused on strategic inflection points where price, positioning, and narrative intersect. Target shares jumped nearly +4% after reports that activist Toms Capital Investment Management has built a significant stake following a -29% YTD decline. With CEO Brian Cornell set to step down in Feb 2026, activism introduces a governance and strategy reset narrative. On the 4-hour chart, Target is stabilising from deeply oversold conditions. Volatility has compressed, downside momentum has slowed, and price is attempting to reclaim short-term moving averages. This reads as early-stage mean reversion rather than a completed move, with risk now better defined than it has been in months. Micron remains a standout. The stock is now +240% YTD and has printed its fifth consecutive record high. Pullbacks continue to find support at the 50-day moving average, signalling persistent institutional accumulation. On the 4-hour timeframe, Micron’s momentum has cooled from elevated readings but remains constructive. RSI is holding above trend support, MACD remains positive with only modest deceleration, and price continues to defend rising intraday averages. This reflects digestion after a strong impulse leg rather than distribution. Positioning sharpens the setup. Short interest sits at 1.23 SOIR, the highest of the year. Options remain underpriced with SVI at 52% and SVS at 87, keeping squeeze risk elevated into any renewed momentum expansion. On Nvidia, the strategic narrative strengthened materially. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight with a $300 price target following Nvidia’s Christmas Eve acquisition of Groq IP and talent for $20B. Nvidia is internalising inference acceleration capability that would have been strategically dangerous to leave external. On the 4-hour chart, NVDA is holding higher lows with volatility contracting. Momentum has stabilised rather than rolled, consistent with trend continuation rather than exhaustion. I believe this reinforces the AI capex, cloud, and data centre spend cycle well into 2026. Options Flow Radar ⚡🧮 I’m seeing selective upside participation alongside disciplined hedging. Overall options activity showed roughly 13M calls versus 9.23M puts, producing a put to call ratio near 0.71. That is not panic protection. That is structured exposure in a market still leaning risk-on beneath the surface. In Micron, suppressed implied volatility relative to realised movement keeps call structures attractive. On the 4-hour chart, price compression alongside positive momentum is the type of setup that often precedes dealer-driven gamma expansion when spot pushes higher. Crypto-linked equities saw the opposite dynamic. Bitcoin slipping below $87,000 triggered downside hedging and profit protection across miners and proxies. On the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, momentum weakened but stabilised. RSI stopped accelerating lower, MACD flattened, and price remained range-bound within its recent consolidation. I’m convinced this pressure is tax-loss harvesting driven rather than thesis-breaking. Global Macro Currents 🌍📉 I’m watching year-end cross currents amplify commodity squeeze dynamics. Bitcoin remains roughly 30% off its highs while equities are up sharply in 2025. That divergence is driving aggressive tax-loss harvesting in crypto, enabled by the absence of wash-sale rules. Selling pressure is mechanical, not fundamental. Silver deserves specific attention here. Beyond spot strength, the options structure confirms why flows continue to funnel into the metal. Net GEX across all expirations shows meaningful positive gamma building from roughly 67.5 through the low 70s, creating a stabilising dealer support zone beneath price. That structure helps explain why pullbacks remain shallow and quickly absorbed. Above, call resistance clusters near 80, where gamma turns increasingly negative. I’m watching that level closely. A sustained push into that zone would likely force dealers into reactive hedging, increasing upside volatility rather than capping it. This is structured positioning, not speculative excess, and it aligns with supply constraints, inflation hedging, and rising commodity allocation. Gold, silver, and copper strength reflects inflation persistence, supply tightness, and controlled geopolitical premium rather than panic hedging. I believe these moves are early signals of a broader 2026 value and commodity rotation forming beneath headline equity strength. Risk Positioning Insight 🎯🧭 I’m convinced the market remains in accumulation mode beneath the surface. Hedge funds are not aggressively de-grossing. ETF flows remain supportive. Dark pool behaviour continues to show absorption on weakness rather than distribution at highs. Short interest is building selectively, which increases squeeze risk rather than signalling broad bearish conviction. Crypto equities appear oversold on flow-driven pressure. Consumer discretionary is undergoing activist-led repricing. Semiconductors remain the structural leadership group as AI capex, cloud demand, and data centre investment continue to dominate capital allocation. I’m watching this tape closely, and I’m staying constructive. Until breadth deteriorates materially, volatility spikes decisively, or price loses key support levels, I believe pullbacks remain opportunities, not warnings. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerPicks @Daily_Discussion
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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