To The Moon

My Investing Muse (05Jan2026)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

• Allianz Research expects global business insolvencies to rise by +6% in 2025, and again by +5% in 2026, before a modest decline by –1% in 2027. “Global insolvency outlook 2026-27” - Allianz

• Soleply filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in March after taking on too much debt and unsustainable leases, according to court documents filed with PacerMonitor. - The Street

• A newly filed document with the State of Michigan shows 265 employees are affected by the Farmington Hills Mercedes facility closure. 108 employees plan to stay with Mercedes or an affiliate. 157 employees declined relocation. Those 157 face permanent layoffs between Dec 31, 2025 – Aug 31, 2026. - X user Amanda Goodall

• US SMALL COMPANIES ARE GOING BANKRUPT AT A PACE CONSISTENT WITH A RECESSION: 2,221 US INDIVIDUALS AND SMALL FIRMS HAVE FILED FOR BANKRUPTCY UNDER SUBCHAPTER V SO FAR IN 2025, THE MOST ON RECORD. Are we headed towards a recession in 2026? - X user Jesse Cohen

My Final Thoughts

Breaking news has emerged that the USA has taken military action against Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Maduro and his wife. This unprecedented move raises questions about the potential impact on global markets when trading resumes on Monday. The international community may respond in various ways, as such a direct intervention—capturing a foreign leader and bringing him to trial in another country—deviates from established diplomatic and legal protocols for handling escalations of this magnitude. Investors are likely to monitor the situation closely, keeping an eye on how financial flows respond to this event.

Silver Market Concerns

There are ongoing questions surrounding the silver market, particularly regarding discrepancies between the volume traded on exchanges and the actual physical production of the metal. These inconsistencies have led to suspicions of fraudulent activity. The situation underscores the importance of allowing legal processes to address and resolve such concerns within the commodities sector.

Fraud in the Childcare Sector

In Minnesota, a significant case of fraud has surfaced within the childcare industry, amounting to $18 billion. This revelation has placed several politicians and businesses under increased scrutiny as investigations continue.

Outlook for the New Year

The beginning of 2026 promises to be eventful. As many recover from New Year’s Eve celebrations, attention turns to the financial markets, which are poised to resume activity amid the possibility of unexpected, high-impact events—so-called “black swans”—as highlighted by recent developments.

S&P 500 and Market Caution

There remains optimism for the S&P 500 to reach new highs. However, rising concerns about market depth and recent issues related to the banking repo suggest a cautious approach may be warranted. In this environment, holding cash and engaging in smaller trades appears to be a prudent strategy for navigating the current uncertainties.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$