To The Moon

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 📈 Volatility masks improving fundamentals and rising strategic value A high-conviction reset is unfolding. Volatility has dominated perception, but execution, data, and platform depth are advancing underneath the tape. I’m focused on structure, not sentiment. As of 04Jan26 🇳🇿, Hims & Hers Health ($HIMS) is stabilising after a sharp pullback, trading well off its highs despite continued operational progress. The market is reacting to a deceleration narrative rather than a deterioration narrative, and those are not the same thing. This pattern is familiar. $META lost roughly 80% when revenue plateaued for a year. $NFLX lost roughly 80% when subscriber growth stalled for a couple of quarters. In both cases, great management adapted, rebuilt the engine, and compounded value. They did not wait to die. This is the same behavioural error forming in $HIMS. 💰 Financials & Momentum Strip out the noise and the scorecard remains intact. • Gross margin is flat • Free cash flow is rising • Revenue is rising • Net income margin is rising Institutional ownership is now at an all-time high, a critical signal that long-duration capital is leaning into volatility rather than exiting it. In 2025, $HIMS finished up 36%, comfortably beating the S&P 500. In isolation, that is a strong result. In context, it masks the real story. The stock reached +150% YTD four separate times and also corrected by roughly 50% four times. Anyone who ignored volatility understandably feels disappointed. Anyone who understood the structure used it. 📐 Technical Setup & Trade Triggers On the weekly chart, I’m watching $30–$32 as the base of this pullback and the zone where a reversal should begin if buyers intend to show their hand. Key structure: • Demand zone: $30–$32 • Near-term resistance: $35–$36 • Major resistance: $38.80–$40 Momentum context: • RSI has cooled from overbought into neutral • MACD compression signals deceleration, not breakdown • Price is working to reclaim short-term EMAs while still below the 55 EMA • Keltner and Bollinger compression suggests volatility exhaustion rather than continuation Acceptance above $36 confirms structural repair. A sustained weekly close below $30 invalidates the setup. 🏥 Peer & Sector Context Health care was the single largest driver of Q3 consumption growth, reinforcing resilience even as discretionary spend softens. Two names matter here: • $HIMS as the cash-pay healthcare layer benefiting from rising spend and demand for direct access outside the insurance system • $OSCR as the digital insurer positioned to gain ACA share This is not a fad trade. It is a structural rotation in healthcare delivery. 🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Tie-Ins Higher rates, slower cuts, and pressure on employer-sponsored insurance all favour subscription-based, cash-pay healthcare. Regional expansion via Zava and planned entry into Canada diversify demand. The model reduces reimbursement risk and increases pricing control. 🧠 Strategic & Competitive Positioning Wall Street is treating $HIMS like a weight-loss fad. That framing is wrong. $HIMS was never built around a single category. Hair loss, dermatology, sexual health, and mental health formed the core long before GLP-1s mattered. Weight loss added growth. It did not define the platform. Execution over the past year matters more than the stock chart: • Expanded personalised medicine through in-house compounding • Launched menopause care and testosterone treatment • Continued scaling existing offerings, gummies being one example • Added Labs as a recurring subscription layer • Acquired Trybe Labs to support at-home diagnostics • Expanded internationally through Zava, with Canada planned • Increased investment in MedMatch and data-driven personalisation • Continued hiring across clinical, product, engineering, and leadership teams • Committed over $200M to New Albany operations, creating 400 jobs • Participated in a $325M private placement into GRAIL in Oct25 to support early cancer screening The moat is infrastructure, data, and cross-sell. Labs increases engagement and data density. MedMatch lowers churn. As users move across categories, lifetime value rises and switching costs compound. This is the Amazon Prime and Costco model applied to healthcare. By 2026, off-the-shelf drug pricing matters far less when $HIMS controls blood data via Labs, clinical history via MedMatch, and personalised compounding delivered monthly. You are not buying a pill. You are subscribing to a proactive health OS. 🌳 Scenario Tree with Probabilities Base case, 55%, 6–12 months. Revenue growth decelerates but stabilises. CAC flattens as roughly 25% of marketing spend shifts into higher-intent, lower-CAC channels. Sentiment resets. Price works back toward $38–$42. Bull case, 30%, 9–18 months. Transparent funnel metrics, ARPU expansion, and Labs adoption reframe the narrative. Platform value is recognised. Rerating toward premium subscription peers drives $48–$55. Bear case, 15%, 3–6 months. CAC remains elevated, subscriber adds disappoint, and $30 fails. Price revisits the mid-20s before structural buyers re-emerge. The single condition that changes my mind is sustained CAC deterioration without ARPU offset. ⚠️ Risk Register & Mitigation • CAC inflation, visible through subscriber growth and marketing efficiency • Regulatory shifts affecting compounding and telehealth • Labs execution risk, measured by engagement and repeat usage 📚 Sources Source: Company filings and investor materials, FY25 Source: Fintel institutional ownership data, Jan26 Source: Bloomberg market data, Jan26 Source: Company press releases and disclosures, 2024–2025 🔚 Closing Conviction I’m not chasing sentiment. I’m tracking a platform moving from Tier C subscription into Tier A membership. Data density, cross-sell, and switching costs are compounding while the market obsesses over the wrong variable. Execution has moved forward. Price has moved backward. That asymmetry is exactly where I focus. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerObserver