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Sinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?

国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。

Sinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":518067100934800,"tweetId":"518067100934800","gmtCreate":1767504240409,"gmtModify":1767504678546,"author":{"id":4100931252200150,"idStr":"4100931252200150","authorId":4100931252200150,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.10","exceedPercentage":"60.31%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":172,"starInvestorFlag":true,"fullDisclosureFlag":true,"starInvestorFollowerNum":68,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":64,"userFollowInvestorFlag":false,"orderNotificationFlag":false,"ror":18.01,"showRor":true,"investmentPhilosophy":"长线策略，专注投资美港股，少数持仓，低频交易","winRationPercentage":31.25,"tradeVolumeEst":0},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL\">$XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL$</a>&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL\">$XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL$</a>&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"$XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL$","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/518067100934800","repostId":2600017238,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2600017238","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767482210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2600017238?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-01-04 07:16","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Sinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2600017238","media":"智通财经","summary":"国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>According to a research report released, although the pace of central bank gold purchases will slow down in 2025, the influx of speculative funds will push gold prices higher. The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, order chaos, and monetization of the US deficit remains unchanged. Looking forward to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order is still a favorable environment for gold. When the AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of the highlight moment. As a narrative asset that has both \"gold-like\" attributes and is related to AI power, silver has higher flexibility in stages. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may come to an end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>Sinolink Securities's main views are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is gold \"overrising\" at present?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Looking back at the history of gold prices, the stages with strong reference are World War II and the 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and the people's run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Under the gold standard, dollar issuance must be linked to gold reserves, which limits the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, and banks collapse in large numbers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Large unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the United States officially entered the war, the fiscal deficit ratio of the United States once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the latter's market interest rate by purchasing unlimited Treasury bills. As a result of this measure, from August 1939 to August 1948, the aggregate monetary base of the United States increased by 149%. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the U.S. economy took off, and international trade was settled in U.S. dollars. Due to the continuous expansion of the economy, there were more and more U.S. dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the balance of payments continued to be in deficit, which had to rely on the issuance of currency to make up for it. As a result, inflation further intensified, and the credit of the U.S. dollar once faced the collapse.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world has started to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it will not be able to continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. The Brinton Woods system collapsed, and the price of gold once again changed from a fixed price to a floating price. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent Volcker-era rate hike in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>2. In the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid economic development of the United States, the global financial crisis, and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the average annual federal fiscal deficit ratio in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 in the epidemic environment, the average deficit ratio is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the 1950s to before the financial crisis. The average level is 1.7%, and the economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continued depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's US $300 billion foreign reserves marks a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it has reduced its holdings of US debt while hoarding gold substantially.</p><p><strong>3. There is no significant sign of overrising in this round of gold bull market</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 5.7 times so far; If we take the technical default of the United States on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold prices in the 1970s, there is no sign of significant overrise in this round of gold bull market.</p><p>The opposite of gold is the credit of the US dollar. In the long run, the rising trend of gold prices is positively correlated with the size of US debt. According to the forecast of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2035, the ratio of the total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise from 97.8% in 2025 to 118.5%, exceeding the high point at the end of World War II. Against this background, there is still room for imagination in the gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring about an overall increase in productivity in various industries from the organizational and structural levels, and lead the United States out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal of the end of the gold bull market.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of increasing gold purchases by the central bank and the market coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Central bank gold purchases: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarization, the decline of the geopolitical influence of the United States, and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"central bank gold purchases\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, global central banks are still underweighting gold. According to World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with important geopolitical turning points in history. This value was 29% at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58% at the end of the Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there is still room for improvement of 7%, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves will continue to \"moderately rise\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023, 69% in 2024), the performance of gold in times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for them to increase their holdings of gold.</p><p>Sinolink Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to end, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". During this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchases has not weakened. Although the amount of gold purchases in the short term is not as frenzied as market funds, it will become an important gold price chassis force. When the gold price makes a technical correction, the gold purchase expectation of the central bank and sovereign funds will restrict the space and sustainability of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: The demand for combination optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets. It is an indispensable hedging tool in large asset allocation portfolios.</p><p>Although major asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio already have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not been involved in gold, because in the past For a long time, stock-bond hedging was effective, and bonds were enough to disperse the volatility risk of U.S. stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era of falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe, and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. But since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, Western populist politics, interest rate and inflation environment have caused great changes in global financial markets.</p><p>A persistent high inflationary environment will largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversification tool. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, simultaneous allocation of stocks and bonds can effectively diversify risks), but when the core inflation is higher At 2.5%, this stock-bond hedge is on the verge of failure. This year, the positive correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds is still near the high level in the past 27 years, highlighting the necessity of alternative assets as diversified allocation tools. Given its historically low correlation with many traditional asset classes, a strategic allocation to gold can help improve the yield-risk price-performance ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% in the past year, and strong investment demand may not only price in expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but also signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for gold holdings still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still cut interest rates 2-3 times next year. The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates may drive market funds represented by gold ETFs to buy. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"long AI + long gold\" is a two-end bet on the next stage of the U.S. national fortune. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Current Pricing Perspective of Monetary Credit VS Price Comparison Perspective with U.S. Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global US dollar currency/global gold central bank reserves are used as the representative of global US dollar gold, then the US dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about US $4,000 an ounce is already lower than that of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. When the system collapsed. But if we look at it from another perspective, compared with financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at a historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>Data availability is limited, and there is a lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization is accelerating, recharging US dollar credit; The understanding of the reconstruction of the international order is biased.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-01-04 07:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>According to a research report released, although the pace of central bank gold purchases will slow down in 2025, the influx of speculative funds will push gold prices higher. The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, order chaos, and monetization of the US deficit remains unchanged. Looking forward to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order is still a favorable environment for gold. When the AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of the highlight moment. As a narrative asset that has both \"gold-like\" attributes and is related to AI power, silver has higher flexibility in stages. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may come to an end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>Sinolink Securities's main views are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is gold \"overrising\" at present?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Looking back at the history of gold prices, the stages with strong reference are World War II and the 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and the people's run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Under the gold standard, dollar issuance must be linked to gold reserves, which limits the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, and banks collapse in large numbers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Large unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the United States officially entered the war, the fiscal deficit ratio of the United States once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the latter's market interest rate by purchasing unlimited Treasury bills. As a result of this measure, from August 1939 to August 1948, the aggregate monetary base of the United States increased by 149%. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the U.S. economy took off, and international trade was settled in U.S. dollars. Due to the continuous expansion of the economy, there were more and more U.S. dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the balance of payments continued to be in deficit, which had to rely on the issuance of currency to make up for it. As a result, inflation further intensified, and the credit of the U.S. dollar once faced the collapse.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world has started to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it will not be able to continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. The Brinton Woods system collapsed, and the price of gold once again changed from a fixed price to a floating price. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent Volcker-era rate hike in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>2. In the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid economic development of the United States, the global financial crisis, and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the average annual federal fiscal deficit ratio in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 in the epidemic environment, the average deficit ratio is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the 1950s to before the financial crisis. The average level is 1.7%, and the economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continued depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's US $300 billion foreign reserves marks a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it has reduced its holdings of US debt while hoarding gold substantially.</p><p><strong>3. There is no significant sign of overrising in this round of gold bull market</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 5.7 times so far; If we take the technical default of the United States on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold prices in the 1970s, there is no sign of significant overrise in this round of gold bull market.</p><p>The opposite of gold is the credit of the US dollar. In the long run, the rising trend of gold prices is positively correlated with the size of US debt. According to the forecast of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2035, the ratio of the total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise from 97.8% in 2025 to 118.5%, exceeding the high point at the end of World War II. Against this background, there is still room for imagination in the gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring about an overall increase in productivity in various industries from the organizational and structural levels, and lead the United States out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal of the end of the gold bull market.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of increasing gold purchases by the central bank and the market coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Central bank gold purchases: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarization, the decline of the geopolitical influence of the United States, and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"central bank gold purchases\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, global central banks are still underweighting gold. According to World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with important geopolitical turning points in history. This value was 29% at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58% at the end of the Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there is still room for improvement of 7%, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves will continue to \"moderately rise\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023, 69% in 2024), the performance of gold in times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for them to increase their holdings of gold.</p><p>Sinolink Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to end, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". During this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchases has not weakened. Although the amount of gold purchases in the short term is not as frenzied as market funds, it will become an important gold price chassis force. When the gold price makes a technical correction, the gold purchase expectation of the central bank and sovereign funds will restrict the space and sustainability of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: The demand for combination optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets. It is an indispensable hedging tool in large asset allocation portfolios.</p><p>Although major asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio already have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not been involved in gold, because in the past For a long time, stock-bond hedging was effective, and bonds were enough to disperse the volatility risk of U.S. stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era of falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe, and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. But since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, Western populist politics, interest rate and inflation environment have caused great changes in global financial markets.</p><p>A persistent high inflationary environment will largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversification tool. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, simultaneous allocation of stocks and bonds can effectively diversify risks), but when the core inflation is higher At 2.5%, this stock-bond hedge is on the verge of failure. This year, the positive correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds is still near the high level in the past 27 years, highlighting the necessity of alternative assets as diversified allocation tools. Given its historically low correlation with many traditional asset classes, a strategic allocation to gold can help improve the yield-risk price-performance ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% in the past year, and strong investment demand may not only price in expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but also signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for gold holdings still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still cut interest rates 2-3 times next year. The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates may drive market funds represented by gold ETFs to buy. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"long AI + long gold\" is a two-end bet on the next stage of the U.S. national fortune. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Current Pricing Perspective of Monetary Credit VS Price Comparison Perspective with U.S. Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global US dollar currency/global gold central bank reserves are used as the representative of global US dollar gold, then the US dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about US $4,000 an ounce is already lower than that of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. When the system collapsed. But if we look at it from another perspective, compared with financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at a historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>Data availability is limited, and there is a lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization is accelerating, recharging US dollar credit; The understanding of the reconstruction of the international order is biased.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"BK0012":"证金概念","BK0028":"国家队","BK0201":"可转债","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0188":"融资融券"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2600017238","content_text":"国金证券发布研究报告称，尽管2025年内央行购金节奏放缓，但投机资金涌入推动金价走高，短期回调主要受情绪和技术性因素驱动，而全球滞胀、秩序混沌、美国赤字货币化的核心支撑逻辑未变。展望2026，当市场对“AI未知”这一定价逻辑尚未改变时，缺乏秩序仍是黄金的有利环境。当AI泡沫与黄金构成“哑铃”，黄金作为AI持仓的保险已实现了高光时刻的价值。白银作为既有“类黄金”属性又与AI电力相关的叙事资产，具备阶段性更高的弹性。但一旦AI叙事变得清晰，黄金的高光时刻或落幕，届时“两头受益”的白银叙事可能也会回归理性。国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?一、回顾黄金价格的历史，具备较强参考性的阶段分别是二战时期和上世纪70年代1929年股市崩盘后，美国陷入经济大萧条，民众挤兑黄金导致银行体系濒临崩溃。金本位制下美元发行必须与黄金储备挂钩，这限制了政府通过发行货币来解决问题的能力，银行大批倒闭，老百姓大量失业。因此1933年美国罗斯福新政后，宣布全国所有银行必须停止黄金交易，将黄金收归国有。二战爆发美国正式参战后，美国财政赤字率一度升至27%，美联储通过无上限的国库券购买，稳定后者的市场利率。这一措施的结果是，从1939年8月至1948年8月，美国基础货币总量增长了149%。与此同时，以美元计价的黄金在同期上涨了123%。布雷顿森林体系时期，黄金价格被固定为35美元/盎司。但二战后美国经济腾飞，国际贸易又以美元结算，受到经济的不断扩张，美元是越来越多，导致美国的通货膨胀急速加剧，国际收支持续逆差，又不得不依靠发行货币来弥补，导致通货膨胀进一步加剧，美元信用一度面临崩塌。70年代起全球开始挤兑黄金，美国黄金储备减少，美国担忧无法继续支撑美元与黄金的兑换承诺。布林顿森林体系崩溃，金价再度由固定价格变成浮动价格。1973年-1980年，黄金从35美元一路飙升到850美元，翻了24倍。直到1980年沃尔克时代暴力加息，黄金才真正见顶。二、21世纪的第一个十年，黄金迎来新一轮牛市背后是“911”事件、美国经济高速发展后陷入通货膨胀、全球金融危机、欧债危机等一系列事件的催化。随着欧债危机得到抑制、美国经济逐渐复苏，黄金在2011年后陷入5年熊市。金融危机爆发至今的17年里，美国平均年度联邦财政赤字率达到6.3%，即使剔除疫情环境下的2020和2021年，平均赤字率也高达5.4%，远高于上世纪50年代至金融危机前的平均水平1.7%，以财政透支为核心驱动力的经济增长模式是美元相对于黄金持续贬值的核心原因。2022年俄乌危机后美国对于俄罗斯3000亿美元外储的技术性违约则标志着美元信用和影响力下降的新阶段，以中国央行为代表，一边减持美债一边大幅囤金。三、本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象若以2008年美国启动赤字货币化作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了5.7倍;若以2022年美国对俄罗斯外汇储备技术性违约作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了2.4倍。相较于上世纪70年代金价翻24倍的涨幅，本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象。黄金的对立面是美元信用，长期来看金价的上涨趋势与美国债务规模存在正相关性。据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)预测，到2035年，公众持有的美国联邦债务总量与美国GDP的比值将从2025年的97.8%上升至118.5%，超过二战结束时的高点，这一背景下黄金牛市仍有想象空间。除非这一过程中，出现了AI技术能够从组织和架构层面带来各行业生产率的全面提升，并带领美国重新走出滞胀、改善经济和财政效率，那么即是黄金牛市终止的信号。从资金层面，央行和市场增购黄金的进程是否快要走完?一、央行购金：节奏放缓而非结束在全球政治多极化、美国地缘影响力下降以及美欧等发达经济体债务警惕日益上升的背景下，地缘大国(中国、俄罗斯、印度等)、传统中立国(新加坡、沙特、卡塔尔等)及俄乌前沿地带国家(波兰、匈牙利等)在过去三年内逐步增加黄金储备。黄金投资需求中“央行购金”的占比从2022年一季度的15%，一度上升至2024年四季度的高点54%。即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。根据世界银行数据，2024年全球央行储备中黄金储备占比约为22%，较三年前上升了7个百分点，但相较于历史上重要的地缘政治格局转折点均仍有差距。1990年冷战末期时这一数值为29%，1980年大滞胀末期时为58%。央行持有黄金储备占比若回到1990年的水平，还有7%的提升空间，对应约3400吨的购金需求。2025年世界黄金协会对央行黄金储备的调查结果显示，76%的受访央行表示未来5年黄金储备占比将继续“温和上升(Moderately higher)”(2022年为46%，2023年为62%，2024年为69%)，黄金在危机时期的表现、组合多元化、以及对冲通胀的诉求是他们增持黄金最核心的理由。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。这一过程中，央行购金需求并未减弱，短期内购金量虽不及市场资金狂热，但会成为一股重要的金价底盘力量。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。二、市场资金：组合优化需求与对冲AI叙事需求仍在对于投资机构而言，黄金的长期价值在于其回撤低、和传统股债资产间相关性低，是大类资产配置组合中不可或缺的对冲工具。虽然风险平价策略组合、马科维茨—均值方差策略组合等大类资产配置组合已具备一定的黄金敞口，但仍有一部分非机构类投资者和传统股债策略组合并未涉足黄金，因为过去相当长的时期内，股债对冲是有效的，债券足以分散美股的波动风险。2022年以前的40年里，全球整体都在经历了一个利率下降、超级大国之间以合作为主的红利时代，尤其是2008年之后美、欧、日等主要央行均维持极度宽松货币政策多年。但是自2022年以来，全球大流行、西方民粹主义政治、利率与通胀环境等因素使全球金融市场发生了极大的变化。持续的高通胀环境在很大程度上会削弱政府债券作为组合多元化工具的价值。近50年历史经验显示，当美国核心通胀水平低于2.5%时，美股美债之间的相关性大体上为负(即同时配置股+债便能有效分散风险)，但当核心通胀高于2.5%时，这种股债对冲濒临失效。今年美国股债的正相关性仍然处于近27年来的高位附近，凸显了另类资产作为多元化配置工具的必要性。鉴于黄金与许多传统资产类别的相关性历来较低，对黄金进行战略性配置有助于改善各种投资组合在各种市场周期中的收益风险性价比。过去一年里，全球黄金ETF持有量增长了20%，强劲的投资需求可能不仅在定价美联储降息预期，也是传统资产组合策略正在发生变革的信号。对于交易性资金而言，黄金的增持需求也仍然存在。一方面，美联储降息周期尚未走完，市场定价明年仍会落地2-3次降息，实际利率下行预期或驱动以黄金ETF为代表的市场资金买入。另一方面，“做多AI+做多黄金”的哑铃策略是对下一阶段美国国运的两头押注，当AI泡沫行至后半段，黄金的“对冲”属性有望增强。黄金：当前货币信用的定价视角 VS 与美国金融资产的比价视角在货币信用体系下，如果用全球美元货币/全球黄金央行储备量作为全球美元黄金的代表，那么当前4000美元左右一盎司的黄金定价所隐含的美元信用已经低于1971年布雷顿森林体系破灭之时。但如果换一个视角来看，与美国的金融资产比价，当前黄金市值/美国的股票和债券市值也刚好处于与1971年附近的历史低位。风险提示：数据可得性有限，公开数据存在滞后性;AI商业化节奏加快，为美元信用充值;对国际秩序重构的理解有偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"GCmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":24,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}