To The Moon

With 2025 officially over, EV ‘titan’ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ finds itself at a precarious crossroads. While the broader markets have enjoyed a year defined by AI fervor, TSLA’s impending Q4 2025 earnings report is shaping up to be a sobering "reality check" for his fan-base investors. Far from the "to the moon" narrative often peddled by its leadership, recent data suggests continual significant disconnect between its valuation and fundamental performance. The Vanishing US$2.9 Billion Fortune: The L&F Warning The most damning evidence for a disappointing Q4 lies in the collapse of TSLA's supply chain relationships, with L&F Co., the South Korean producer of high-nickel cathodes. On 29 Dec 2025, L&F disclosed a staggering regulatory update: the 2023 landmark supply deal with TSLA, originally valued at US$2.9 billion, has been slashed by -99% to a mere US$7,386. L&F’s "vanishing order" from TSLA, has had a catastrophic impact: Fortune of L&F Chairman and his family have plummeted from over US$800 million to roughly US$134 million as L&F shares fell more than -70% from their peak. (see below) L&F’s cathodes were intended for TSLA's in-house 4680 battery cells, primarily for the Cybertruck. The near-total cancellation of these orders confirms that Cybertruck production and demand are non-existent compared to Musk's original "hundreds of thousands" of units promise. For Tesla's Q4 earnings, the signs are clear: the high-margin "growth engine" of 4680-powered vehicles has stalled, leaving a massive hole in projected revenue and hardware margins. Shrinking Fortune and Orders. Evidence of TSLA’s "cooling" is further cemented by recent production milestones in China. While it was reported that TSLA’s Shanghai plant rolled out its 9 millionth EV on 30 Dec 2025, the subtext is one of diminishing returns. Despite hitting volume targets, aggressive price wars in China have forced TSLA to prioritize quantity over margin. FYI - Tesla’s aggressive price slashing strategy has been a multi-phase "race to the bottom" that began in earnest in early 2023 but accelerated into a desperate defensive maneuver during Q1 2024 and Q4 2025. (see below) TSLA's global deliveries entered a clear downward trend over the last 3 years, sliding from a 2023 peak of 1.81 million units to 1.79 million in 2024. Deliveries for 2025 is projected to hit roughly 1.64 million. So far, this 2nd consecutive annual decline, marked by an -8% drop for 2025, reflects cooling demand and fierce competition that has stalled TSLA's long-standing growth narrative. Despite a record Q3 2025 fueled by US tax credit incentives, the overall trajectory indicates a significant market correction for the EV maker. Last but not least, domestic rivals like $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ and Xiaomi are no longer just "catching up". They are beginning to dictate the pace, leaving TSLA to struggle with bloated inventory levels. "Snake Oil" Factors: Robotaxis & Safety Flaws To maintain its sky-high valuation, TSLA has leaned heavily into the promise of autonomy. However, the veneer is cracking. (see below) The post exposes TSLA’s Austin Robotaxi project as being much smaller than Musk claims. Instead of the sprawling, city-wide fleets promised to investors, reality on the ground in Texas is a limited, localized pilot program that lacks the scale to move the needle on revenue. This reinforces the "snake oil salesman" critique: painting a rosy future to distract from a stagnant present. Compounding this is the safety crisis. On 23 Dec 2025, a TSLA driver crashed while livestreaming the car's Full Self-Driving (FSD) features. (see below) This high-profile failure has reignited debates over whether Tesla’s vision-only approach is fundamentally flawed. With regulatory pressure mounting, there is a looming threat: will a safety design flaw force a global recall for hardware retrofitting? Such a move would be a catastrophic financial blow, potentially costing billions in an era where cash is no longer "trash". On a lesser impact, TSLA also need to compromise on its EV design. (see below) TSLA is redesigning its door handles to include a mandatory mechanical release to meet new Chinese safety laws. This update ensures handles remain functional during power failures or accidents, as China plans to ban electronic-only retractable designs by 2027. This shift compromises TSLA's signature minimalist aesthetics by replacing the seamless, flush-fitting handles with more traditional, visible hardware. As a result, TSLA’s EV door is just like any run of the mill EVs. Q3 2025: An Artificial Peak Retrospectively, it is now clear that Tesla’s "beat" in Q3 2025 was a mirage. Sales were artificially inflated by the expiry of significant EV subsidies on 30 Sep 2025. This "pull-forward" effect saw a rush of buyers in August and September, leaving Q4 with a depleted pipeline. Without government crutches, demand has returned to "actuals", that for TSLA, appears to be a downward trajectory as the novelty of its aging fleet (Model 3 and Y) continues to wear off. As of 31 Dec 2025 Technical Analysis: Chart of "Disappearing" Rally ? On 31 Dec 2025, TSLA ended the year at $449.72 per share. From a technical standpoint, Tesla (TSLA) is currently signaling a "Strong Sell" across multiple metrics as of late December 2025: (see above) Moving Averages: The stock has fallen below its 20-day ($464.70) moving averages (SMAs), indicating a short-term bearish reversal. It remains marginally above its 50-day ($445.10), a level is being tested as crucial support. It is firmly above its 200-day SMA ($359.14), implying long-term bullishness is still at play. RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed around 46.70, firmly in the neutral territory, that is neither oversold or overbought. MACD The MACD is at -6.09, signaling strong downward momentum. Support & Resistance: TSLA has faced heavy rejection at the $495 resistance level (near its 52-week high of $498.83). Support is currently pegged at $447.16, with a deeper "trap door" at $410 if earnings miss. Trading Volume: Volume has been inconsistent, with spikes appearing on "red days". This strongly suggest that institutional "smart money" may be exiting positions before the Q4 results. Pattern Analysis: TSLA’s full‑year 2025 chart is best described as a large cup‑and‑handle pattern. The “cup” formed by the decline from roughly 470 to about 214 and subsequent grind back to the 470–490 zone by late August–October. Into year‑end, price carved a relatively shallow, choppy handle between roughly 430 and 500, with the stock closing around 450, below the intraday high of 498.83. Leaving the bullish continuation structure technically intact but not yet confirmed by a decisive breakout above the 490–500 neckline. Alternatively, the recent -8% drop from pre-Christmas highs has broken the "handle", transforming the pattern into a potential double-top, a classic bearish signal, so said some analysts. My viewpoints : (mine only) As the 2025 chapter closes, TSLA is appearing less and less like a tech disruptor and more like a legacy automaker grappling with slowing demand and unfulfilled promises (that has become more of a norm, already). The artificial high of Q3 has faded, leaving a hollow Q4 in its wake. In light of production shortfalls, safety scandals, and crumbling "Robotaxi" narrative, will the CEO resort to further accounting "trickery" or "hype-cycles" regarding AI and robotics - simply to qualify for the massive salary incentives recently forced through by his board? Only the Q4 earnings call will tell if TSLA magic has finally run out. Still the fans may continue to disregard facts and hang onto the storyteller. Due to creative differences and bias, I will scale back my posting. My 2,430 ‘timeless’ posts remain available (for now) for those who value fundamentals as Mr Buffett had pointed — invest in businesses, not pick stocks. To new subscribers, no flashy screens to entice blind investing. I aim to share on how to fish, not fish for you. I’m grateful to share what I know. In the alternate moo moo universe, where I am valued & appreciated, I will still be sharing. Good luck on your i-journey. Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. QBTS Quantum Sparks on January 2026 ? MP Reclaims $100 Level in 2026. Yes ! NBIS: Safer Haven or CRWV 2.0 ? Buy ? Do you think TSLA is overpriced & overvalued as accused by Burry ’? 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