To The Moon

As 2026 begins, a clear — though internally differentiated — consensus is emerging among major global investment banks. The dominant themes are becoming increasingly explicit: a broad repricing of China equities, AI compute power diffusing from mega-cap platforms to the supply chain, a structurally bullish outlook for gold and industrial metals, and growing dispersion within U.S. equities.

Below is a bank-by-bank breakdown of the latest core views, followed by a concise daily monitoring checklist.

1. Goldman Sachs: Overweight China, Persistent AI Capex, and a Structural Bull Case for Gold

China Equities: Overweight Backed by Earnings and Valuation Math

Goldman Sachs maintains a clear overweight stance on Chinese equities.

• Corporate earnings growth is projected at 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027

• Combined with an estimated ~10% valuation re-rating

• Implies 15%–20% annualized returns over the next two years

• MSCI China is projected to rise 38% by end-2027

The message is unambiguous: China has shifted from a tactical allocation to a core portfolio position.

AI and Semiconductors: Capex Remains Strong, Leadership Is Fragmenting

• AI capital expenditure is expected to remain elevated through 2026

• Performance dispersion among the “Magnificent Seven” is widening

• AI value creation is spreading toward compute, memory, and infrastructure suppliers

• Memory leaders such as $Micron Technology(MU)$ stand out as beneficiaries of surging AI-driven storage demand

Gold and Industrial Metals: Central Banks as the Marginal Buyer

• Gold price target: $4,900/oz by end-2026

• Central banks are buying ~70 tonnes per month, contributing 14 percentage points to expected gains

• Long-term bullish on copper due to supply constraints and demand growth

• 2035 copper target: $15,000/ton

Gold is increasingly being priced as a central bank asset, rather than a traditional risk hedge.

2. Morgan Stanley: China Upgraded to Overweight, S&P 500 Target at 7,800

China: Policy Coordination Unlocks Valuation Upside

• China upgraded to Overweight

• A more proactive fiscal stance under the “15th Five-Year Plan,” supported by accommodative monetary policy

• Technology leads performance: AI, autonomous driving, and batteries

• MSCI China valuation re-rating potential exceeds 30%, with accelerating foreign capital inflows

U.S. Equities: Higher Index, Wider Internal Dispersion

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ target: 7,800 (+14%)

• Preference for Technology and Healthcare

• AI and cloud leaders highlighted: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

Energy: Demand Grows, Supply Caps Prices

• Oil demand growth of ~0.9 million barrels/day in 2026

• Supply surplus persists

• Brent crude average price: $58/bbl

3. UBS: Earnings Recovery and Early AI Monetization in China

UBS emphasizes a balance between fundamental recovery and structural growth.

• MSCI China EPS growth of 10% in 2026

• Benefits from “anti-involution” policies and lower depreciation and amortization

• China is seen as leading in AI commercialization and monetization

• New growth engines: advanced manufacturing and technological self-sufficiency

Strategy takeaway:

Capture upside in AI and energy transition while anchoring portfolios with high-dividend defensive assets.

4. JPMorgan: Structural Oil Oversupply, Financials Poised for Recovery

Energy: Oversupply, Not Demand, Is the Core Issue

• Significant oil surplus expected in 2026

• Brent crude forecast: $58/bbl in 2026, $57/bbl in 2027

Financials: Rate Cuts Support Margin Stabilization

• Easing policy expectations support net interest margins

• Bank earnings improvement likely during the upcoming earnings season

• Preferred exposure: $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$

5. Wedbush: AI Inflection Point Arrives in 2026, Tesla Re-rated as an AI Platform

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ : The “True Inflection Year” for AI

• FY2026 marks the real acceleration in AI-driven growth

• Enterprise deployment momentum is building rapidly

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : From Auto OEM to AI-Driven Valuation

• Valuation re-rating expected within 6–9 months

• Key catalysts: FSD and CyberCab commercialization

• Market cap potential within 12 months: $2 trillion (bull case: $3 trillion)

$Apple(AAPL)$ : AI Commercialization Becomes a Multi-Year EPS Driver

• AI could contribute $75–100 in cumulative EPS over the coming years

• Tim Cook is expected to remain CEO through end-2027 to oversee the AI transition

6. Key Market Watchlist for Today

1. CES 2026

• AI hardware and autonomous driving launches

• Validation of real-world AI deployment

• Related ETFs: $Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF(BOTZ)$ / $Global X Cloud Computing ETF(CLOU)$

2. China Markets

• Southbound Stock Connect flows

• ADR earnings previews

• Related ETFs: $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ / $AMTD Digital Inc.(HKD)$

3. Gold and Copper

• Gold price breakout levels

• Copper inventory data

• Related ETFs: $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ / $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$

4. Financials

• Rate futures movements

• Capital flows into bank stocks

• Related ETF: $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$

5. Energy

• EIA inventory data

• Brent crude price action

• Related ETF: $SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF(XES)$

Bottom Line

In 2026, the question is no longer whether AI matters, but where capital is being deployed along the AI value chain — and where returns ultimately accrue. At the same time, China is transitioning from valuation repair to earnings delivery, while gold and energy are set on fundamentally divergent long-term paths.

If you track just three indicators this year — China capital flows, AI infrastructure spending, and central bank gold purchases — you’ll already be ahead of the curve.

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