To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 12Jan2026)

Inflation Indicators

The primary economic figure to monitor in the coming week is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The previous CPI reading stands at 2.7%, serving as a key benchmark for inflation. This data point will be closely analysed by the Federal Reserve as it considers its next decision regarding interest rates.

In addition to the CPI, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is another significant measure of inflation to observe. The most recent month-over-month PPI data for November was 0.3%. The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level and is often seen as a leading indicator, as increases in producer costs can eventually be passed down to consumers.

Bond Market Activity

It is also important to keep an eye on the upcoming 10-year note auction and the 30-year bond auction. Bonds are favoured by investors seeking safer assets for capital growth. A rise in demand for bonds, seen through increasing interest rates, may indicate that more funds are being directed into bonds rather than the stock market. This shift in demand can, in turn, affect stock demand and prices.

Consumer Spending Metrics

Core retail sales and overall retail sales data for November are key indicators of consumer activity in the U.S. domestic market. The most recent month-over-month growth in core retail sales was reported at 0.4%, providing insight into consumption trends.

Real Estate Market Data

For the real estate sector, both new home sales (October) and existing home sales (December) are important to monitor. The forecast for new home sales in October is 710,000, a notable decrease from the previous 800,000, marking a 10%+ decline month-over-month. While there is no forecast yet for existing home sales in December, the previous month’s figure was 4.13 million units.

Manufacturing and Production

Additional manufacturing data to watch includes the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January, which previously recorded a value of -10.2, indicating contraction in the sector. Conversely, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for January was 52.2, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is in a phase of expansion.

Energy Sector Update

In the energy market, crude oil inventories saw a drawdown of more than 3.832 million barrels. This reduction suggests that producers anticipate increased consumption.

Labour Market Indicator

Finally, initial jobless claims are another important data point for the Federal Reserve to consider in its upcoming interest rate decision. The most recent figure for initial jobless claims stands at 208,000.

Earnings Calendar (12Jan2026)

In the upcoming week, several major companies are scheduled to report their earnings. Key players include JP Morgan, Delta Air Lines, BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America, TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock.

Let us look at Delta Airlines.

Airline earnings are often called the "Canary in the Coal Mine" for the global economy. Because the industry is highly cyclical and sensitive to shifts in spending, its financial reports provide a real-time health check on everything from consumer confidence to global trade.

Airline earnings act as an economic barometer. Leisure demand reflects consumer spending power, while premium bookings signal corporate confidence. Air cargo volumes track global trade and supply chain health. Additionally, rising operational costs like fuel and wages provide a real-time window into broader inflationary pressures.

Focusing on Delta Air Lines, technical analysts have issued a “strong buy” recommendation for the stock. This aligns with broader analyst sentiment, as the current price target stands at $78.28, indicating a potential upside of 8.25%. Over the past year, Delta’s stock price has increased by 9.3%.

Financial Performance Over the Last Decade

Delta Air Lines has demonstrated substantial growth and resilience over the past ten years. The company’s revenue increased from $40.7 billion in 2015 to $61.6 billion in 2024. Notably, Delta managed to recover from the significant downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the annual revenue drop to $19 billion in 2020.

Gross profit also rose during this period, growing from $14.8 billion in 2015 to $16.5 billion in 2024. However, it is important to note that the gross margin has declined from above 30% in the mid-2010s to approximately 24% over the last three years.

Operating profit experienced a decrease, falling from $7.8 billion in 2015 to $5.995 billion in 2024. Earnings per share (EPS) were $5.63 in 2015 and ended at $5.33 in 2024, with the highest EPS recorded in 2019 at $7.30.

The company currently has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.2, making the stock appear attractive. The gross profit margin, based on a ten-year median, stands at 27.4%, while the free cash flow (FCF) margin is 3.5%. However, there is some concern regarding the company’s debt-to-equity ratio, which is at 1.3.

For the upcoming earnings release, the consensus forecast for Delta Air Lines is earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53 and revenue of $14.72 billion.

Its lack of profitability and debt are concerning. Based on the above data, this is one stock that we can monitor.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (12Jan2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to move in a bullish pattern.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they continue to fan upwards.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.07 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.

More Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, 20 indicators display a “Buy” rating, while none display a “Sell” rating. This leads to a “Strong Buy” rating for the daily interval,

CNN Fear & Greed Index

CNN Fear & Greed index is showing a “Neutral” rating at the end of the last trading session with a score of 51.

From the trend, there appears to be a wedge forming, with a potential break-up or downward movement. Let us monitor.

S&P500 Market Outlook

Given the above indicators, I lean towards a Bullish outlook for the coming week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (12Jan2026)

China has 34 nuclear reactors under construction. The USA has no large nuclear reactors under construction. No power expansion means no AI expansion - X user Jason Smith.

We can print money, but we cannot print energy.

Collectively, the amount of Billionaire wealth that has left California in the last month is now in excess of $700B. That means the $2T of California wealth they expected to tax is now down to $1.3T and falling quickly. I would not be surprised if 2026 ended with less than $1T of billionaire wealth in California and decades and hundreds of lawsuits. - Chamath Palihapitiya

Without being able to charge rates adequate enough to cover losses and to earn an adequate return on equity, credit card lenders will cancel cards for millions of consumers who will have to turn to loan sharks for credit at rates higher than and on terms inferior to what they previously paid. - Bill Ackman

Venezuela is now a 100% colony of the USA. This is how it works. Oil from Venezuela will be sold by the US for dollar. The revenue will be deposited in US banks & controlled by Trump admin. That money will be used for buying (only) American products/services. - X user SL Kanthan

Markets are quietly shifting. All major equity markets have outperformed the US in 2025 by an average of ~20%. Even with the help of the AI bubble, the S&P 500 is struggling to keep up. History matters here. Historically, every time the S&P reached today’s P/E levels, the following decade delivered near-zero returns. We’re watching the opening chapter unfold in real time. - X user Lukas Ekwueme

The US trade deficit continues to improve at a historic pace.

The odds of Tom Lee facing securities fraud and Ponzi scheme charges have soared to 53%, following a dramatic surge over the past 24 hours.

War is not the reason, but usually the decoy.

The Japan financial system, upon which the ginormous JPY carry trade global structure lies, is imploding in real time but is doing that at a slow pace trapping most of the investors in a “boiling frog syndrome” - don’t be surprised if a regional financial crisis similar to the one in US at the beginning of 2023 triggering in Japan at any moment - X user JustDario

My Investing Muse (05Jan2026)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

My Final Thoughts

Venezuela and Greenland: Emerging Tensions

It takes more than Delta Force to get the Venezuelan oil - dilution, extracting, blending, transporting, storing, sour and more. Investments are needed for hardware, software, skilled labour, maintenance, infrastructure, supply chain, management and more. Remember Afghanistan & Iran?

As of 2026, Venezuela’s rare earth output is zero, with no significant processing capacity due to political instability and lack of infrastructure. Reserves in the Orinoco Arc are estimated at 300,000+ metric tons, worth $200B+. Improvements: Foreign investment (e.g., U.S. partnerships), infrastructure upgrades, eco-friendly mining tech, and political stability post-Maduro could boost production to thousands of tons/year. - Grok

The post by oil analyst Michael Spyker estimates a $1 trillion cost to scale Venezuelan production and infrastructure to fully replace Canada’s 3 million barrels per day of heavy crude exports to the US, including $355 billion for upstream facilities alone, amid dilapidated power and logistics networks.

The situation in Venezuela demands work and investment for the country to recover and emerge stronger. The legality of recent incidents involving Venezuela is under scrutiny, raising further questions about international norms and responses. Meanwhile, the United States is reportedly formulating plans regarding Greenland, adding another layer to the current geopolitical complexity. These developments prompt concerns about the potential for additional incidents in the near future. The world is watching closely, considering how major powers such as China, Russia, and Europe might respond. Determining the appropriate response to these evolving challenges remains a critical question for policymakers and global institutions.

Implications for American Leadership and World Order

These unfolding events cast doubts on American leadership, and the rationale behind the perceived Russian and Chinese threats to Greenland appears tenuous. European nations may be reluctant to retreat in the face of these manoeuvres, suggesting that the situation could escalate. As a result, there is growing anxiety about the future of the world order as it currently exists. The prospect of more unpredictable “black swan” events looms, raising uncertainties for both governments and markets worldwide.

Economic Indicators and Market Volatility

The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases will be crucial for assessing inflation trends. However, for meaningful comparisons, it is essential to use consistent baskets of goods and services. The most recent CPI report has been criticised for omitting certain items, which has led to an understatement of inflation figures. Furthermore, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) has acknowledged the use of estimates rather than actual survey data, resulting in questions regarding the reliability of the CPI data. In light of the geopolitical tensions stemming from Venezuela and Greenland, the financial markets may experience increased volatility in the coming week.

Investor Focus During Earnings Season

With the commencement of the Q4 2025 earnings season, investor attention will shift beyond just revenue and earnings numbers. The outlook and guidance provided by various companies are expected to be a focal point, as stakeholders seek insights into future performance amid ongoing uncertainty.

Broader Economic and Social Challenges

Although gross domestic product (GDP) figures are anticipated to show continued growth, this trend does not fully reflect the difficulties faced by many companies and families in America. The prevailing economic conditions highlight the need for a deeper understanding of the underlying challenges, as positive headline numbers may obscure persistent struggles within the broader population.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$