Gold’s surge towards USD 4,600 reflects a hybrid of fundamentals and risk positioning, rather than pure panic.
What is truly driving the move
Fundamentals
Central bank demand remains structural, led by EM reserve diversification away from USD assets.
Real yields are compressing as markets price eventual US rate cuts while fiscal deficits stay elevated.
Supply is inelastic, with limited mine expansion despite higher prices.
De-dollarisation dynamics support gold as a neutral reserve asset.
Fear and positioning
Heightened geopolitical tail risks are prompting institutions to hedge regime shifts, not just short-term shocks.
Portfolio flows increasingly treat gold as strategic insurance, not a tactical trade.
As highlighted by Goldman Sachs, equities concentration risk and geopolitical instability are emerging as dominant “gray rhino” threats.
Can gold reach USD 6,000 by 2026?
Yes, but it is a conditional upside, not a base case.
A move to USD 6,000 would likely require:
Persistent geopolitical fragmentation rather than isolated crises
A loss of confidence in US fiscal discipline or monetary credibility
Continued central bank accumulation at current or higher pace
Equities delivering subpar real returns, reinforcing gold’s role as a portfolio stabiliser
Absent these, a more probable range is USD 4,800 to 5,300 into 2026.
Bottom line
Gold is no longer trading purely on fear. It is repricing systemic risk and monetary order uncertainty. The USD 6,000 scenario is feasible, but it represents a stress-path outcome rather than the most likely trajectory.
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