To The Moon

With the gap down, directional confluence locks in a move into $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 6800–6750.

This area holds Weekly FVG support and could allow a final W4/W5 advance before the major reversal.

Though failure below 6700 would invalidate the W4/W5 set up, while a weekly close < 6770 favoring the top.

Both scenarios converge on 6800–6750 this week.

SPX Count 1 | Diagonal Extension

The advance from November likely resolved as a clean 5-wave structure—not the ABC required for a terminal diagonal (3-3-3-3-3).

This raises odds the diagonal from April continues.

I am looking for a pullback to 6800–6750 to complete Wave 4.

From there, the setup targets a final grind toward 7000–7050 for Wave 5.

Invalidations:

Below 7050 (probable)

Below 7000 (hard)

SPX Count 2 | Wave 5 Termination?

The break below the April (2/4) trendline is the first major structural crack.

Both scenarios favor a decline, though a weekly close below 6770 would send a mechanical sell signal due to the divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ (SMT → iFVG).

That would favor a deeper correction into the 6550 zone—jump-starting the higher-degree reversal as Wave 1 down.

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