Mag 7 Earnings Are Here: A Reality Check After the Selloff
Why Mag 7 suddenly looks fragile
Big-cap tech has looked strangely mortal to start the year. Mag 7 has lagged smaller caps, and the latest geopolitical shockwaves have turned "quality growth" into "sell first, ask questions later." That sets up an unusually high-stakes earnings stretch, because positioning is lighter, expectations are clearer, and guidance language will matter as much as the quarter itself.
Based on current consensus, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ : demand, pricing, and margin math
Consensus is looking for $24.76B revenue, down 3.67% year over year, with $0.44 adjusted EPS, down 39.59%. That is the ugliest growth profile in this table, so Tesla's report is less about "beat or miss" and more about whether the demand narrative stabilizes. The market will focus on delivery trends, pricing discipline, and automotive gross margin trajectory (especially excluding regulatory credits), plus any sign that software take rates or the energy business can offset core auto pressure.
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ : Azure reacceleration versus AI capacity constraints
Microsoft is expected to print $80.27B revenue, up 15.28%, and $3.93 adjusted EPS, up 21.50%. The market is still paying for durable execution. The key watch item is whether Azure growth is re-accelerating in a way that feels sustainable, not just an easy comparison. Investors will also listen for how quickly AI demand is converting into revenue, whether capacity remains a bottleneck, and how management frames capex intensity and margins as AI infrastructure scales.
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ : strong revenue growth, but capex credibility matters
Meta's baseline is $58.36B revenue, up 20.62%, with $10.27 adjusted EPS, up 6.30%. That mix tells you what investors are worried about: top-line strength is assumed, margin durability is debated. The market will care about ad pricing versus impression growth, the pace of Reels monetization, and whether the cost story stays under control while AI infrastructure spending rises. Reality Labs losses and forward capex commentary can swing the stock even if revenue is solid.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ : the classic question, is the cycle back
Apple's consensus sits at $138.43B revenue, up 11.37%, and $2.67 adjusted EPS, up 11.26%. Apple does not need to be flashy; it needs to be steady. The core focus is iPhone demand and mix, with extra attention on China trends and whether Services growth stays resilient. Gross margin, buyback pace, and any commentary on product cycle momentum will likely matter more than a small headline beat.
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ : AI everywhere, but does it monetize efficiently
Alphabet is expected at $111.36B revenue, up 15.43%, and $2.65 adjusted EPS, up 23.29%. The market is basically asking for two proofs at once: Search remains durable, and AI-driven features do not explode costs faster than revenue. Watch Search ad trends, YouTube advertising and subscriptions momentum, and Google Cloud operating leverage. Capex and depreciation trajectory are also key, because investors are increasingly modeling Alphabet like an AI infrastructure spender, not just an ad company.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ : retail efficiency is the floor, AWS is the ceiling
Amazon's consensus calls for $211.14B revenue, up 12.43%, and $1.99 adjusted EPS, up 6.90%. The quarter is usually a blend of two stories: retail execution and AWS sentiment. Investors will watch AWS growth and whether AI workloads are accelerating spend, alongside any signs of pricing pressure. In retail, the market wants proof that fulfillment productivity gains and shipping cost discipline are sticking. Advertising growth is another underappreciated swing factor that can improve the profit mix.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ : the entire market's growth mood ring
Nvidia's baseline is the most extreme in the group: $65.47B revenue, up 66.46%, with $1.52 adjusted EPS, up 71.06%. When growth looks like this, the bar is not high growth; it is "how high, and for how long." The core focus is data center revenue and next quarter guidance, plus product ramp execution and supply visibility. Any hint of demand digestion, gross margin wobble, or timing shifts in next-generation platforms can ripple far beyond Nvidia, because it anchors the AI trade across the whole market.
Summary
After the early year wobble and geopolitics-driven risk-off move, Mag 7 earnings season is less about nostalgia for last year's winners and more about a cold question: which of these names can still grow fast enough to justify being treated like a category, not a stock.
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