To The Moon

In a previous post dated Fri, 16 Jan 2026 on Intel’s subsidiary $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ (click here ! to read & Repost) - I have concluded that I rather bet on INTC, instead of MBLY. Below is my why $Intel(INTC)$ proposition. As INTC prepares to release its Q4 2025 earnings on Thu, 22 Jan 2026, the market is witnessing a profound shift in narrative. Long dismissed as a legacy titan struggling to keep pace, Intel has transformed into a high-conviction turnaround play - thanks to ‘latest’ CEO, Lip-Bu Tan (?). Let’s dive deep into both technical and fundamental layers of INTC’s impending earnings forecast. Earnings Forecast. As of 18 Jan 2026, US market consensus for INTC Q4 2025 earnings, (tentatively dropping in on Thu, 22 Jan 2026), will reflect a "cautious but recovering" sentiment. While analysts expect a year-over-year decline in some metrics, focus has shifted entirely toward INTC's (a) 2026 manufacturing roadmap and (b) potential of its foundry business. Q4 Consensus Estimates Wall Street has largely coalesced around the following figures for Q4 2025: Earnings Per Share (EPS): Bloomberg consensus is pegged at $0.08 per share (non-GAAP). This represents a decrease from the $0.13 reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue: Analysts are forecasting approximately $13.37 to $13.40 billion. This sits within INTC’s own provided guidance range of $12.8 to $13.8 billion. Gross Margins: A critical metric for investors. Gross margins are expected to be around 36.5%. This is a point of contention, as some firms like $Jefferies Financial Group Inc.(JEF)$ warn that "Lunar Lake" ramp-up costs could push this figure lower. Winning Macro Environment. While Wall Street consensus strongly believes INTC’s true bullish signals lie in the strategic "macro" environment. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ "Capacity Crunch" Catalyst: Recent reports indicate that TSM has informed lead customers like Nvidia and Broadcom that it is hitting physical capacity limits for advanced AI chips. (see below) This "supply wall" has turned INTC into the industry's primary "release valve". Investors believe that overflow demand for AI accelerators and custom silicon will inevitably spill into INTCl’s fabs, that now offer available capacity and geographic diversification away from Taiwan. The 18A Inflection Point: The "holy grail" for INTC's bulls is the 18A (1.8nm) process node. At this year’s CES 2026, INTC unveiled its Panther Lake family of PC CPUs. It is the first high-volume chip to use the 18A process, that represents a significant leap in performance & efficiency from INTC's earlier processes. As of mid-January 2026, reports suggest yields have crossed the 60% threshold. While still trailing TSMC’s approx. 70 - 80% yields, this is sufficient for a mass-market ramp of "Panther Lake" (Core Ultra Series 3) processors. Coincidentally, KeyBanc analysts have sparked significant market interest by suggesting that INTC is poised to overtake Samsung as the world’s 2nd-largest foundry, trailing only TSM. A major driver for this projection is AAPL’s reported interest in INTC’s 18A (1.8nm-class) process node. Specifically, AAPL may utilize this technology for the low-end M-series chips found in devices like the MacBook Air and iPad. It is very important to note that neither INTC nor AAPL has officially confirmed this partnership. As of Sun 18 Jan 2026, these remains speculations based on industry surveys and analyst observations. Until a formal announcement is made, investors should treat this as a high-probability rumor rather than a finalized business agreement. Honestly, if there is anything that current US government has done ‘right’, it is to sound out US’s Tech titans to support local AI-chips manufacturer in US’s AI race. Cost-Cutting and Efficiency: INTC is moving toward a non-GAAP operating expense target of $16 billion for 2026, down from $17.5 billion previously. This leaner cost structure means that any revenue beat in the Data Center or AI segments will drop more significantly to the bottom line, fueling the "re-rating" of the stock's valuation. Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, does INTC’s chart aligns with the narrative of a stock that has undergone a violent "regime change" from a bearish downtrend to a powerful momentum-driven ascent ? As of 16 Jan 2026 end day (1) Moving Average Analysis The stock is currently exhibiting a "perfect" bullish stack, where short-term averages are accelerating above long-term ones: 20-day SMA ($40.62): This is the stock’s "momentum” line. INTC has been riding this average like a staircase throughout early January 2026. As long as the price stays above $44, short-term "blow-off" rally remains intact. 50-day SMA ($39.04): This level represents the psychological floor for medium-term institutional investors. After the breakout in December 2025, this SMA has acted as a magnetic support zone. A "Strong Buy" signal is typically maintained as long as the stock remains 10-15% above this mark; that is between $42.94 - $44.90. 200-day SMA ($28.54): The massive "Golden Cross" that occurred in late August 2025 (where the 50-day crossed above the 200-day) signaled a structural shift. The stock is currently trading nearly 65% above its 200-day average, indicating a parabolic recovery that has completely erased the pessimism of 2024. (2) MACD. The MACD (aka Momentum confirmation) is currently in "expansion” mode”. The MACD line (+2.56) is above the signal line (+1.60), confirming a (a) buy signal OR (b) continuation of an upward trend. With the histogram (Divergence) being positive (+0.96), further confirms a bullish crossover/trend. All these, suggesting that the buying pressure is not just steady, it is intensifying. If there is anything for traders to take note, it will be to watch for any "rounding off" of the histogram, that might signal that the pre-earnings "front-running" is reaching a temporary exhaustion point. (3) RSI. RSI (14-day) readings of 66.19, shows a solid uptrend. It is also approaching "overbought" territory (where RSI is above 70), but is not yet considered extreme. Historically, for a stock like INTC, an RSI above 70 suggests a cooling-off period is imminent. However, in the context of a "turnaround breakout", the RSI can stay overbought for weeks as the market aggressively adjusts its valuation. Actually, a slight dip or sideways movement toward $45 would be a “healthy” technical development to reset the RSI indicator before a potential post-earnings surge to $55. Stock Formation: The "Ascending Channel" While many investors look for a "Cup and Handle," INTC’s 12-month chart is better described as a Bullish Ascending Channel that emerged from a long "Bottoming Base." (see below) Not a Cup & Handle: A true Cup and Handle requires a rounded "U" shape followed by a slight downward drift (the handle). INTC’s recovery was too aggressive for this; it was more of a "V-shaped" recovery fueled by the hiring of new leadership and the announcement of the 18A yields. The Ascending Channel: Since 15 Dec 2025, INTC has traded within two parallel upward-sloping lines. Upper Boundary: Currently at $50.50, aligns with a major "Point of Control" from late 2023. Lower Boundary: Currently at $43.00, provides a safety net for any "sell the news" reaction. Next Target: Should INTC breaks the $50 resistance on 22 Jan 2026, the next technical target will be the $56–$60 range, that represents a 21-month high. Options data is already skewed to the upside, with significant call buying at the $55 strike price for April 2026 expiries. Wall Street - Price Targets & Ratings. In light of the bullish sentiments towards INTC, Wall Street bigwigs have recently revised the recovery chip maker’s price targets (PTs). (1) $UBS Group AG(UBS)$ | PT $49 | Neutral Sees solid near-term support from PC and server demand and raised its price target. However, UBS views the year as a mixed, gradual recovery phase, with the 14A process more of a medium- to long-term narrative than an immediate driver. (2) $Citigroup(C)$ | PT $50 | Upgraded to Neutral Believes INTC is entering an AI foundry window of opportunity, benefiting from tight advanced packaging capacity at TSMC and government support. That said, Citi cautions on potential CPU share losses and continued weakness in PC demand. (3) KeyBanc | PT $60 | Overweight The most bullish among the group. Points to strong AI data-center demand, meaningful progress in INTC’s manufacturing business, and server CPU capacity that is nearly sold out for the year, supporting potential price increases. (4) RBC Research | PT $50 | Initiation Acknowledges cost cuts, balance-sheet improvement, and the strategic partnership with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$. However, RBC sees near-term upside constrained by (a) margin pressure and (b) manufacturing execution risks, noting that Intel still trails peers in AI data centers. My viewpoints: (mine only) Personally, I view INTC, a stock that has successfully moved from "skepticism-priced" to "expectation-priced". Its upcoming earnings will likely serve as a confirmation of the "worst is over" sentiment. With a new PT of $63 from aggressive analysts or $52.25 (based off above 4 financial institutions’ PTs averages), and an upgrade from "Sell" to "Neutral" by Citi, the path of least resistance for INTC appears to be higher. INTC - favourable returns ! Agree ? Looks like it will be wise to hold onto my INTC shares or even purchase more, if Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs against nations who opposed US interest in Greenland, materializes. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. GOOG $4 Trillion Rally. The Siri-Gemini Effect ! INTC's MBLY Rally ? It's A Broken Dream ! COIN & HOOD Fell -25%. Buy, Skip or Wait ? Do you think INTC has turned the corner with the worst behind it’? Do you think INTC Q4 2025 earnings will be strong enough to enable the stock to rally? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents