BTS
01-26 02:49

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$  

Gold has been on a parabolic run recently, with widespread speculation about a move toward $5,000 or even $6,000。。。

Gold prices could reach $5,000 if economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand; however, a rapid rise would likely face resistance and require strong momentum, and if gold hits $5,000 before February, the technical setup would likely trigger a pullback rather than a direct surge to $5,900, as parabolic moves often require consolidation and profit-taking

Confidence in the $5,055 target from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is logical if the rally is viewed as a reflection of current economic trends and realistic price movements; conversely, the $6,000 forecast from Yardeni depends on extreme market volatility or systemic geopolitical shifts pushing gold to new heights

Gold could test the $5,000 level; however, surpassing it and shooting straight to $6,000 would likely need significantly stronger catalysts to drive that kind of move

Gold’s Parabolic Run to Hit Targets Early? When Will the Party End?

@Tiger_comments：
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ is no longer just a slow-moving safe-haven asset—its price action is starting to look like a high-growth tech stock, with explosive momentum. While markets are still debating AI commercialization, gold has already surged past $4,800 in January, leaving many Wall Street banks’ annual forecasts far behind. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ 1) Wall Street’s “Collective Miss”: A Gold Rally They Can’t Catch Looking back at last year, an interesting pattern emerged: gold kept rising, and analysts repeatedly raised their targets just to chase the trend. As we enter 2026, the same movie seems to be playing again. Morgan Stanley previously expected gold to reach $4,800 by year-end, yet the market “hit” that target before January even ended. This collective lag in expectations suggests a deeper repricing may be underway—driven by global central-bank de-dollarization and renewed safe-haven demand. 2) Step-Ladder Targets: When Technicals and Institutional Forecasts Align Combining the current Elliott Wave structure with the latest institutional consensus, here’s a roadmap: Short-term target: $5,000 (a psychological line in sight) Gold is only about 2.3% away from this level. HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect gold to challenge this key psychological mark in the near term. If gold can hold above $5,000, it would effectively enter a “low-resistance zone.” Mid-term target: $5,250–$5,300 (sub-wave 5 acceleration) This range is a key resistance zone based on Fibonacci extensions. BofA and JPM have moved quickly to keep up with the market, lifting their 2026 targets into this band. It also matches the “secondary Wave 5 within Wave 3” type of breakout behavior we’re observing. Long-term target: $5,900–$6,000 (late-stage major Wave 5) This is the most aggressive endpoint projection for the current bull cycle. More bullish houses such as Yardeni Research and Jefferies argue that under extreme inflation pressure or a further escalation in geopolitics, a major Wave 5 sprint could point directly toward $6,000 as early as this year. 3) When Will the Party End? In commodities, Wave 5 is often the most explosive phase—powered by fundamentals and FOMO. But investors should watch for two classic “end-of-run” signals: Exhaustion gap / blow-off behavior: a near-vertical push toward $6,000 alongside a sharp surge in volume—often signaling buyer fatigue. Real rates turning higher: if inflation data falls faster than expected and real yields spike, the rising opportunity cost of holding gold can become a major headwind. Gold may retreat to $4200-4400 during major wave 4. Community Discussion If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900? Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)? Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!
Gold’s Parabolic Run to Hit Targets Early? When Will the Party End?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment（1）

  • Top
  • Latest
  • chizzoo
    ·01-27 10:05
    TOP
    Gold rally's mad, but hitting $6k needs huge catalysts. [看涨]
    Reply
    Report