$USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ $The Metals Company(TMC)$ $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ Overnight print at $29.49 ๐ puts $USAR into price discovery
๐ง $21.78โ$24.77 = value zone, support, liquidity pocket
๐ช $26.95โ$30.00 = expansion band, breakout, momentum trigger
Structure remains bullish ๐ volatility expanding โก flow and positioning still favour rare earth leadership ๐๐งฒ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ จ โโกโโโโโ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ! ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ก๐ ข ๐ ๐ ๐๐๐
๐จ๐บ๐ธโ๏ธ $USAR: The $1.6B Trump Trade, Whale Call Stampede, and Americaโs Rare Earth Power Pivot โ๏ธ๐บ๐ธ๐จ
@Barcode๏ผ
$USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ $The Metals Company(TMC)$ $CRITICAL METALS CORPORATION(CRML)$ This is not a momentum fad. This is a sovereign-backed repricing of strategic metals in real time. Iโm tracking $USAR into next week, and Iโm expecting a DJT candle on Monday. Big green. Violent expansion. The kind of impulse move that only appears when policy, capital, narrative, liquidity, and order flow align. Iโm framing $USAR as a national security asset, not a small-cap equity. I am structurally bullish with conviction because government capital, whale options accumulation, volatility expansion, historical pattern symmetry, and a rare earths regime shift are converging in rare alignment. ๐ฆ
๐บ๐ธ Trump Policy Catalyst and Historic Capital Injection The Trump Administration is committing $1.6B to USA Rare Earth Inc ($USAR) for a 10% equity stake, per FT. The structure includes the acquisition of approximately 16.1M shares at $17.17 each, alongside warrants for an additional 17.6M shares. This represents the largest US government allocation to the rare earth domain to date, anchoring domestic supply chains, strategic autonomy, and industrial sovereignty. $USAR closed Friday up +9% at approximately $24.77 and is now +46% over the last 5 days. Trump wants more US rare earths, and the market is front-running executive policy direction. This is the kind of tape where you buy what the president tells you to buy. ๐งฑโ๏ธ Rare Earths Power Cluster $USAR USA Rare Earth $CRML Critical Metals $TMC The Metals Company ๐งฌ Next in Line $CRML Greenland asset scale $NB lobbying and policy leverage $TMRC Texas heavy rare earth exposure ๐๐ Unusual Options Activity โ 23Jan26 ๐บ๐ธ Total $USAR options volume: 126,316 contracts Calls: 97,032 Puts: 29,284 Call-heavy skew confirms aggressive upside speculation and directional commitment. $USAR ranked alongside INTC, AMD, MSFT, GME, SNDK, CRML, TMC, and LAC in abnormal options flow versus baseline turnover. Capital is not speculating. It is positioning. This is institutional calibration, not dispersed retail participation. ๐ฏ๐ฅ Institutional Contract Concentration โ $USAR 18Jun26 $43 Call Contract: USAR 43C 18Jun26 Days to expiry: 144 23Jan26 flow Volume: 1,802 contracts Open Interest: 10,163 Average price: $3.13 Premium traded: $563,799 OTM: ~74% Bid volume: 602 Mid volume: 193 Ask volume: 1,007 Ask-side dominance signals assertive buyers lifting offers to secure upside exposure 22Jan26 accumulation Volume: 5,945 contracts Open Interest: 50 Average price: $2.65 Premium traded: $1,578,187 OTM: ~89% Ask-side executions: 5,330 contracts This reflects methodical, multi-session reinforcement of upside exposure rather than erratic speculation. ๐ฅ๐ Repeated Whale Call Sweeps and Premium Commitments Multiple โRepeated Hitsโ and โAscending Fillโ call sweeps across: 18Jun26 calls 20Mar26 calls 06Feb26 short-dated calls 15Jan27 long-dated calls Notable premium clusters ~$871K call sweep (3,273 contracts) ~$296K call block (1,000 contracts) ~$224K repeated hit clusters ~$1.18M long-dated call block This validates sustained intent distributed across maturities, not a single-session momentum spike. ๐งฎโก Greeks and Volatility Profile โ $USAR 18Jun26 $43 Call Option price: $3.35 Bid / Ask: $3.35 / $3.45 Mid price: $3.40 Implied Volatility: 120.66% Historical Volatility: 123.43% Delta: 0.372 Gamma: 0.020 Theta: -0.025 Vega: 0.058 Rho: 0.023 Leverage ratio: 2.75 Premium percentage: 87.12% Selling return: 34.55% Profit probability (Buy): 20.58% Elevated Vega means volatility expansion directly amplifies option value. Gamma supports convex upside as price accelerates through key breakout thresholds into momentum chase conditions. ๐ฆ๐ฆ Dark Pool Accumulation and Liquidity Support Bands Institutional absorption is stacked across: $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 Current acceptance in the $24โ$25 range confirms accumulation rather than distribution. Sequential advances are underpinned by layered support strata, reducing downside air pockets and reinforcing trend resilience. ๐๐ง Historical Pattern Trading โ Multi-Cycle Fractal Setup The long-term $USAR chart displays a boomโbustโbaseโrelaunch structure: Prior parabolic blow-off near $45โ$50 Deep retracement into multi-month accumulation Ascending dynamic support defining structural demand Current breakout mirroring the prior ignition compression phase This implies a measured re-extension toward prior cycle highs if momentum sustains. $USAR is repeating its historical expansion cycle, except now it is backed by government capital rather than speculative retail flows. ๐ฏ๐ Pattern-Based Price Targets (Historical Symmetry) Base range low: ~$12 Breakout zone: ~$22โ$25 Measured expansion (1.0x): $35โ$38 Parabolic cycle retest: $45โ$50 Bull extension (1.618x): $58โ$65 These projections are anchored in empirical fractal symmetry, not arbitrary forecasting. ๐งฑ๐ Key Tradeable Levels from Structure Structural support zones $20โ$22 = prior breakout foundation $18 = ascending support confluence $16 = volume-weighted accumulation shelf Upside breakout zones $26โ$28 = initial velocity gate $32โ$35 = acceleration trigger $38โ$45 = parabolic reclamation corridor Invalidation thresholds Loss of $18 weakens the expansion thesis Sustained acceptance below $16 invalidates the multi-cycle breakout structure ๐๐ Technical Structure and Momentum Regime ๐ 4H Configuration Price riding the upper Keltner channel EMA 13 > EMA 21 > EMA 55 bullish stack Bollinger Bands expanding, signalling volatility expansion rather than exhaustion Sustained acceptance above the Keltner midline confirms bullish control ๐ 30-Minute Structure Higher highs and higher lows Shallow pullbacks with rapid bid absorption Value migrating higher, not stalling This is trend expansion, not exhaustion. ๐ง ๐ฅ Actionable Trading Scenarios and Price Roadmap ๐ข Bull Continuation Scenario If price holds above $24โ$25, structure signals continuation. Expansion path: $26โ$28 โ $30โ$32 โ $35โ$38 Cycle retest window: $45โ$50 Bull extension: $58โ$65 This aligns with the historical base-to-parabolic relaunch fractal. ๐ก Reload / Constructive Pullback Scenario A controlled pullback into $20โ$22 becomes a structural reload zone. Higher-low confirmation preserves trend health Rising support remains intact above $18 Next impulse targets remain $28 โ $35 โ $38 ๐ด Invalidation / Breakdown Risk Scenario Loss of $18 weakens bullish expansion Breakdown toward $16 signals retreat into prior value Sustained acceptance below $16 invalidates the multi-cycle breakout thesis ๐๐ฐ Where Capital Is Rotating Right Now ๐งฑ Rare Earths / Strategic Metals: $CRML $TMC $USAR $MP ๐ก๏ธ Defense & National Security: $SKYT $KTOS $KRMN $AMTM ๐ง AI Infrastructure & Compute: $GOOGL $NUAI $NBIS $IREN โข๏ธ Critical Minerals & Uranium: $TMQ $UUUU $UAMY โก Energy & Grid Modernisation: $BE $GEV $PWR ๐งฎ Semiconductors: $TSM $INTC $NVDA $AMD ๐พ Memory & Data Storage: $SNDK $MU $STX $WDC ๐ Space Economy: $RKLB $ASTS $PL $FLY $RDW ๐ธ Drones & Autonomous Defense: $ONDS $UMAC $RCAT โ๏ธ Nuclear & Advanced Reactors: $LEU $CCJ $OKLO $BWXT ๐ Autonomous Vehicles: $TSLA $AEVA $RIVN ๐ค Robotics & Automation: $SERV $AMZN $ARBE $RR ๐ Batteries & Energy Storage: $TE $EOSE $ELVA $FLNC $QS ๐ง ๐ฅ Institutional Allocation Lens Capital is rotating into hard assets, AI infrastructure, defence, energy, and strategic supply chains. $USAR sits at the intersection of geopolitics, national security, electrification, defence procurement, EV supply chains, and AI hardware dependency. This transcends equity speculation into a sovereign-directed supply chain reconfiguration away from adversarial dependence. Iโm treating $USAR as a policy-accelerated momentum regime with asymmetric upside convexity. I am conviction-weighted because fiscal alignment, derivatives accretion, volatility dynamics, historical pattern congruence, and thematic convergence are aligning in a way that rarely occurs simultaneously. โ๐ Does $USAR signal the start of a prolonged state-supported valuation re-rating, or is this only the opening phase of an underappreciated rare earth supercycle? ๐ข Donโt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ๐๐ Iโm obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letโs outsmart the market and stack those gains together! ๐ Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC ๐๐๐๐๐ @Tiger_comments @TigerWire @TigerPicks @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerObserver
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