To The Moon

$USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$  $The Metals Company(TMC)$  $CRITICAL METALS CORPORATION(CRML)$  

This is not a momentum fad. This is a sovereign-backed repricing of strategic metals in real time. I’m tracking $USAR into next week, and I’m expecting a DJT candle on Monday. Big green. Violent expansion. The kind of impulse move that only appears when policy, capital, narrative, liquidity, and order flow align. I’m framing $USAR as a national security asset, not a small-cap equity. I am structurally bullish with conviction because government capital, whale options accumulation, volatility expansion, historical pattern symmetry, and a rare earths regime shift are converging in rare alignment.

🦅🇺🇸 Trump Policy Catalyst and Historic Capital Injection

The Trump Administration is committing $1.6B to USA Rare Earth Inc ($USAR) for a 10% equity stake, per FT. The structure includes the acquisition of approximately 16.1M shares at $17.17 each, alongside warrants for an additional 17.6M shares. This represents the largest US government allocation to the rare earth domain to date, anchoring domestic supply chains, strategic autonomy, and industrial sovereignty. $USAR closed Friday up +9% at approximately $24.77 and is now +46% over the last 5 days. Trump wants more US rare earths, and the market is front-running executive policy direction. This is the kind of tape where you buy what the president tells you to buy.

🧱⛏️ Rare Earths Power Cluster

$USAR USA Rare Earth

$CRML Critical Metals

$TMC The Metals Company

🧬 Next in Line

$CRML Greenland asset scale

$NB lobbying and policy leverage

$TMRC Texas heavy rare earth exposure

📊🐋 Unusual Options Activity — 23Jan26 🇺🇸

Total $USAR options volume: 126,316 contracts

Calls: 97,032

Puts: 29,284

Call-heavy skew confirms aggressive upside speculation and directional commitment. $USAR ranked alongside INTC, AMD, MSFT, GME, SNDK, CRML, TMC, and LAC in abnormal options flow versus baseline turnover. Capital is not speculating. It is positioning. This is institutional calibration, not dispersed retail participation.

🎯💥 Institutional Contract Concentration — $USAR 18Jun26 $43 Call

Contract: USAR 43C 18Jun26

Days to expiry: 144

23Jan26 flow

Volume: 1,802 contracts

Open Interest: 10,163

Average price: $3.13

Premium traded: $563,799

OTM: ~74%

Bid volume: 602

Mid volume: 193

Ask volume: 1,007

Ask-side dominance signals assertive buyers lifting offers to secure upside exposure

22Jan26 accumulation

Volume: 5,945 contracts

Open Interest: 50

Average price: $2.65

Premium traded: $1,578,187

OTM: ~89%

Ask-side executions: 5,330 contracts

This reflects methodical, multi-session reinforcement of upside exposure rather than erratic speculation.

🔥📈 Repeated Whale Call Sweeps and Premium Commitments

Multiple “Repeated Hits” and “Ascending Fill” call sweeps across:

18Jun26 calls

20Mar26 calls

06Feb26 short-dated calls

15Jan27 long-dated calls

Notable premium clusters

~$871K call sweep (3,273 contracts)

~$296K call block (1,000 contracts)

~$224K repeated hit clusters

~$1.18M long-dated call block

This validates sustained intent distributed across maturities, not a single-session momentum spike.

🧮⚡ Greeks and Volatility Profile — $USAR 18Jun26 $43 Call

Option price: $3.35

Bid / Ask: $3.35 / $3.45

Mid price: $3.40

Implied Volatility: 120.66%

Historical Volatility: 123.43%

Delta: 0.372

Gamma: 0.020

Theta: -0.025

Vega: 0.058

Rho: 0.023

Leverage ratio: 2.75

Premium percentage: 87.12%

Selling return: 34.55%

Profit probability (Buy): 20.58%

Elevated Vega means volatility expansion directly amplifies option value. Gamma supports convex upside as price accelerates through key breakout thresholds into momentum chase conditions.

🏦📦 Dark Pool Accumulation and Liquidity Support Bands

Institutional absorption is stacked across:

$16

$18

$20

$22

$24

Current acceptance in the $24–$25 range confirms accumulation rather than distribution. Sequential advances are underpinned by layered support strata, reducing downside air pockets and reinforcing trend resilience.

📈🧠 Historical Pattern Trading — Multi-Cycle Fractal Setup

The long-term $USAR chart displays a boom–bust–base–relaunch structure:

Prior parabolic blow-off near $45–$50

Deep retracement into multi-month accumulation

Ascending dynamic support defining structural demand

Current breakout mirroring the prior ignition compression phase

This implies a measured re-extension toward prior cycle highs if momentum sustains. $USAR is repeating its historical expansion cycle, except now it is backed by government capital rather than speculative retail flows.

🎯🚀 Pattern-Based Price Targets (Historical Symmetry)

Base range low: ~$12

Breakout zone: ~$22–$25

Measured expansion (1.0x): $35–$38

Parabolic cycle retest: $45–$50

Bull extension (1.618x): $58–$65

These projections are anchored in empirical fractal symmetry, not arbitrary forecasting.

🧱📊 Key Tradeable Levels from Structure

Structural support zones

$20–$22 = prior breakout foundation

$18 = ascending support confluence

$16 = volume-weighted accumulation shelf

Upside breakout zones

$26–$28 = initial velocity gate

$32–$35 = acceleration trigger

$38–$45 = parabolic reclamation corridor

Invalidation thresholds

Loss of $18 weakens the expansion thesis

Sustained acceptance below $16 invalidates the multi-cycle breakout structure

📐🚀 Technical Structure and Momentum Regime

🕓 4H Configuration

Price riding the upper Keltner channel

EMA 13 > EMA 21 > EMA 55 bullish stack

Bollinger Bands expanding, signalling volatility expansion rather than exhaustion

Sustained acceptance above the Keltner midline confirms bullish control

🕒 30-Minute Structure

Higher highs and higher lows

Shallow pullbacks with rapid bid absorption

Value migrating higher, not stalling

This is trend expansion, not exhaustion.

🧠💥 Actionable Trading Scenarios and Price Roadmap

🟢 Bull Continuation Scenario

If price holds above $24–$25, structure signals continuation.

Expansion path: $26–$28 → $30–$32 → $35–$38

Cycle retest window: $45–$50

Bull extension: $58–$65

This aligns with the historical base-to-parabolic relaunch fractal.

🟡 Reload / Constructive Pullback Scenario

A controlled pullback into $20–$22 becomes a structural reload zone.

Higher-low confirmation preserves trend health

Rising support remains intact above $18

Next impulse targets remain $28 → $35 → $38

🔴 Invalidation / Breakdown Risk Scenario

Loss of $18 weakens bullish expansion

Breakdown toward $16 signals retreat into prior value

Sustained acceptance below $16 invalidates the multi-cycle breakout thesis

🌍💰 Where Capital Is Rotating Right Now

🧱 Rare Earths / Strategic Metals: $CRML $TMC $USAR $MP

🛡️ Defense & National Security: $SKYT $KTOS $KRMN $AMTM

🧠 AI Infrastructure & Compute: $GOOGL $NUAI $NBIS $IREN

☢️ Critical Minerals & Uranium: $TMQ $UUUU $UAMY

⚡ Energy & Grid Modernisation: $BE $GEV $PWR

🧮 Semiconductors: $TSM $INTC $NVDA $AMD

💾 Memory & Data Storage: $SNDK $MU $STX $WDC

🚀 Space Economy: $RKLB $ASTS $PL $FLY $RDW

🛸 Drones & Autonomous Defense: $ONDS $UMAC $RCAT

⚛️ Nuclear & Advanced Reactors: $LEU $CCJ $OKLO $BWXT

🚗 Autonomous Vehicles: $TSLA $AEVA $RIVN

🤖 Robotics & Automation: $SERV $AMZN $ARBE $RR

🔋 Batteries & Energy Storage: $TE $EOSE $ELVA $FLNC $QS

🧠🔥 Institutional Allocation Lens

Capital is rotating into hard assets, AI infrastructure, defence, energy, and strategic supply chains. $USAR sits at the intersection of geopolitics, national security, electrification, defence procurement, EV supply chains, and AI hardware dependency. This transcends equity speculation into a sovereign-directed supply chain reconfiguration away from adversarial dependence. I’m treating $USAR as a policy-accelerated momentum regime with asymmetric upside convexity. I am conviction-weighted because fiscal alignment, derivatives accretion, volatility dynamics, historical pattern congruence, and thematic convergence are aligning in a way that rarely occurs simultaneously.

❓👉 Does $USAR signal the start of a prolonged state-supported valuation re-rating, or is this only the opening phase of an underappreciated rare earth supercycle?

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