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Fed Chair Powell’s Latest Take on Tariffs and Inflation
• Tariffs are expected to cause a one-time price level increase rather than sustained inflationary pressure, with most of the recent inflation overshoot attributed to these tariffs instead of strong demand.
• Underlying inflation (core PCE excluding tariff-impacted goods) is running only slightly above the 2% target, which is viewed as a positive and healthy development.
• The effects of tariffs are anticipated to peak soon and then fade over the course of this year, potentially creating room for the Fed to ease monetary policy.
• The Fed remains vigilant about any renewed downside risks in the labor market and will monitor them closely.
This reflects Powell’s recent assessment that tariff-driven price pressures are transitory, allowing focus on underlying trends while watching employment closely.
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