To The Moon

Gold has now logged nine consecutive advances, with year-to-date gains approaching 30% in 2026. Today, prices hit an intraday high of $5,595, setting yet another all-time record.

Gold-related ETFs have also posted stunning year-to-date gains. 3x long $MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ is up 115.5%, 2x long $Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(JNUG)$ and $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ have risen 71.1% and 68.5%, respectively. $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ has gained 30.8%, while gold price–tracking ETFs $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ and $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ are up 24.8% and 21.1%.

Yesterday’s move above $5,300 already reflected strong upside momentum, yet today gold showed no signs of exhaustion, surging in one straight move to nearly $5,600. Behind this explosive rally lies a more volatile global geopolitical environment.

On January 28 (U.S. time), Donald Trump posted comments regarding Iran and the nuclear deal, stating:

“U.S. naval forces are fully prepared to carry out their mission swiftly and violently if necessary.”

He added:

“I hope Iran will return to the negotiating table as soon as possible and reach a fair deal — no nuclear weapons — which would benefit everyone.”

At the same time, he warned:

“Time is running out. Urgency is critical… The next attack will be far more devastating. Do not let tragedy repeat itself.”

In addition, ongoing leadership uncertainty at the Federal Reserve has raised questions over its independence. Following repeated pressure from the Trump administration on current Chair Jerome Powell, market expectations for a more dovish successor and a Fed more willing to accommodate fiscal pressure have continued to build.

On January 27, when asked whether he was concerned about dollar weakness or depreciation, Trump responded:

“No, I think the dollar is doing great.”

Uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next leadership choice, doubts over its independence, and the administration’s stance have all reinforced expectations of a weaker dollar, a backdrop that is naturally supportive of gold — a non-yielding asset that does not rely on credit backing.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently hovering near its lowest level in almost four years:

As we enter 2026, political uncertainty in the United States is directly impacting market expectations. From the President's public statements on a weaker dollar to the White House's aggressive stances on issues like Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, and imposing tariffs on Canada, South Korea, and the EU, these developments are steadily eroding market confidence in the stability of dollar-denominated assets. This, in turn, is driving increased investment into safer precious metal assets such as gold and silver. Gold, in particular, has seen the most significant impact.

Given this historic high and the scale of its ascent, what are your thoughts on gold? Share your perspective!

Let's shift our perspective to historical trends. If gold truly closes January above $5,595, its monthly gain would approach 30%. This surge would surpass January 1980's 27.5% increase and rank second only to January 1934's 32% jump:

Historical review:

1933–1934: The United States was in the depths of the Great Depression. The banking system was fragile, deflation was spiraling, and public trust in both the dollar and the financial system had collapsed. Against this backdrop, the Roosevelt administration chose to intervene directly in the gold–currency system through administrative measures.

In 1933, the U.S. government banned private gold ownership, forcing individuals and institutions to surrender gold in exchange for dollars. This was followed in 1934 by the Gold Reserve Act, which revalued gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35, effectively amounting to a devaluation of the dollar.

The rise in gold prices during this period reflected a clear logic: when monetary credibility cannot self-repair, governments sacrifice currency stability to regain economic and fiscal breathing room. Gold became a direct “pricing tool” of institutional adjustment. However, this rally was not market-driven; it was an administratively imposed repricing that temporarily suppressed a crisis of confidence.

More than 40 years later, a crisis of monetary trust resurfaced. In the late 1970s, the U.S. was grappling with prolonged high inflation, energy shocks, and declining credibility of monetary policy. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar lost its gold anchor, inflation expectations became unmoored, and confidence in purchasing power deteriorated steadily.

In 1979, gold and silver entered an accelerated rally. Gold surged to a then-record high in January 1980, while silver’s gains were even more extreme. Behind this were not only inflation-hedging demand, but also speculative forces — most notably the Hunt brothers’ attempt to corner the silver market, which amplified supply–demand tensions. Distrust in the monetary system was magnified multiple times through precious metals prices.

The reversal came just as fast. After 1980, U.S. authorities and regulators rapidly tightened margin requirements, while the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, launched an aggressive rate-hiking cycle to crush inflation expectations. Gold retreated more than 40% from its peak in a short period, while silver collapsed by over 70%, bringing the extreme market conditions to an abrupt end.

The common feature of these two historic rallies was clear: when confidence in the monetary system weakens, precious metals — as high-expectation assets — amplify volatility rather than dampen it.

In the current cycle, gold’s rally has not been accompanied by large-scale monetary tightening, nor is there evidence of major institutional attempts to manipulate the market. Instead, the drivers appear to be questions over Federal Reserve independence, a weakening dollar, escalating trade frictions, and rising geopolitical instability.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of gold remains highly policy-dependent:

• Continued upside: If the White House maintains a confrontational external stance — including geopolitical tensions and escalating trade disputes — while Federal Reserve independence continues to erode and monetary policy remains unstable.

• Range-bound consolidation: If the Fed reasserts its independence and White House policies moderate, gold is likely to enter a sideways consolidation phase.

• Sharp pullback: If a hawkish Fed leadership takes over and the administration shifts toward a more conciliatory external posture.

Gold ETF overview:

$MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ seeks higher elasticity by amplifying the daily volatility of gold mining equities, making it suitable for trading-oriented capital with clear short-term trend views and high risk tolerance.

$Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(JNUG)$ and $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ are 2x leveraged gold miners ETFs, also centered on mining equities. Compared with 3x leverage, their volatility and drawdown risks are somewhat more contained, making them more suitable for aggressive, tactical positioning.

$VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ is the most representative gold miners ETF, covering major global producers and balancing sector beta with company-level operating leverage. It is often viewed as a core allocation tool for the mining segment.

$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ and $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ are physically backed gold ETFs, holding physical gold as their core asset. Their price movements closely track spot gold, making them more suitable for currency-risk hedging or medium- to long-term asset allocation.