To The Moon

The Week of Maximum Catalysts

With 40% of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ market cap reporting this week—including 3 of my core watchlist names dropping results within a 12-hour window—the options market is pricing in some of the most expensive straddles we've seen since October.

As someone running a disciplined options practice account, I treat this as a live-fire exercise in volatility capture and risk management.

I'm approaching these three names through the lens of defined-risk spreads and post-earnings IV crush harvesting. Below is my tactical breakdown for today's session:

1. $Apple(AAPL)$ Dipped -0.71%: Key Support Test Ahead of Historic Earnings

📈 Earnings Expectations Analysts anticipate robust Q1 FY26 results, with revenue expected around $138.35B (+11.3% YoY) and EPS projected at $2.67 (+11.2% YoY). Key drivers include a full iPhone 18 sales cycle and strong performance in China. However, rising memory chip costs (DRAM/NAND prices surging ~88%/74%) pose a significant margin headwind, estimated at ~100 bps. The company is advancing its AI strategy, with a major Siri upgrade powered by Google's Gemini expected to be previewed in February.

🔭 Key Forward-Looking Points

• Earnings Reaction & Guidance: Focus on iPhone sales, Services growth, and management's commentary on AI integration and cost pressures from memory chips.

• Fed Meeting & Macro: Market sentiment will be influenced by the upcoming FOMC decision and commentary.

💰 Valuation Perspective

The stock trades at a Forward P/E of 31.31x (as of Jan 28). This is slightly above its 3-year historical average of 30.22x but within one standard deviation, suggesting a valuation near fair value relative to its own history, albeit at a premium to the broader market.

🎯 Analyst Targets

According to consensus data, 43 analysts cover AAPL with an average price target of $285.14, implying ~11.2% upside from the last close. The rating distribution is bullish: 12 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 17 Hold, and 2 Underperform.

📊 Short-Term Price Expectations

Technically, the stock is testing crucial support near $256.4. With RSI (6) at 53.96 indicating neutral momentum and MACD showing a potential bullish crossover, the immediate range is $256.4 (Support) to $273.4 (Resistance).

• Bullish Scenario: A strong earnings beat and hold above $256.4 could spark a rally toward the $273.4 resistance.

• Bearish Scenario: A miss or weak guidance leading to a breakdown below $256.4 could see a test of the next support zone near $250.

2. $STMicroelectronics NV(STM)$ Rallies +3.30%: Breaks Key Resistance, Testing $31.81 on Strong Volume

📈 Earnings Outlook

Institutions expect a challenging quarter, with Q4 revenue forecast at $3.317B (flat YoY) and adjusted EPS at $0.30 (down -18.06% YoY). Positively, the company recently secured a €5B financing agreement with the European Investment Bank to fuel R&D and manufacturing investments in Europe, and its joint venture in China has entered risk production for silicon carbide wafers.

🔭 Key Forward-Looking Points

The immediate focus is on the Q4 2025 earnings release and guidance for 2026, expected after market close today. Monitor management commentary on order trends, gross margin trajectory, and the ramp-up of the SpaceX Starlink chip contract.

💰 Valuation Perspective T

he stock trades at a Forward P/E of 22.72x, slightly above its historical average of 21.52x but well below recent highs near 46x. The Price-to-Sales (TTM) ratio is 2.29x.

🎯 Analyst Targets

Coverage includes 14 analysts with an average price target of $30.93, implying modest upside from current levels. Sentiment is mixed with a Hold bias: 1 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 10 Hold, and 1 Underperform.

⚡ Short-Term Price Expectations

The stock broke above its 50-day moving average with high volume (Volume Ratio: 2.34), indicating strong momentum. Expect consolidation between $29.41 (support) and $31.81 (resistance). A decisive break above $31.81 could target the 52-week high near $33.47. A fall below $29.41 may see a retest of the $26.01 support zone.

3. $Nokia Corp.(NOK) Dips -1.73%: AI & 6G Focus Intact as Stock Tests $6.85 Resistance

📊 Earnings Expectations Analysts anticipate Nokia's continued focus on margin improvement and cash flow generation as it navigates the transition to AI-driven networks and 6G R&D. The company's recent strategic partnership with Blaize to enhance edge AI capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region highlights its expansion plans in high-growth technology sectors.

🔮 Key Forward-Looking Points

• Monitor updates on the integration and performance of the newly acquired Nokia Bell entity, now a wholly-owned subsidiary.

• Watch for any new contract announcements, particularly in the 5G-Advanced and early 6G research domains, which could serve as catalysts.

💰 Valuation Perspective The stock trades at a Forward P/E of 18.35, which is above its historical average of 12.68, indicating the market is pricing in future growth from its AI and network infrastructure initiatives. The Price-to-Sales (TTM) ratio stands at 1.65.

🎯 Analyst Targets Coverage by 6 analysts shows a consensus average price target of $6.60. The sentiment is mixed but leans positive, with 5 Buy ratings, 3 Hold ratings, and 1 Underperform rating.

📈 Short-Term Price Expectations The stock is consolidating after a recent run-up. Expect near-term trading within the $6.60 - $6.85 range.

• A decisive breakout above $6.85 resistance could target a move toward the $7.20 zone.

• A breakdown below the $6.60 support level may see a retest of the $6.40 area.

⚠️ Key Reminders:

For fellow SG-based traders, what's your play? Are you selling the $Apple(AAPL)$ straddle into the $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Gemini reveal, or buying $STMicroelectronics NV(STM)$ calls for the SpaceX chip ramp? Drop your strikes below—let's compare fill prices.

With earnings releases concentrated in the same timeframe, remain vigilant regarding the chain reaction between individual stock volatility and broader market dynamics (FOMC aftermath, tech sector rotation).

It is recommended to strictly limit single-trade risk exposure to no more than 2-3% of account value, and to swiftly adjust or close positions within 24 hours post-earnings based on guidance quality, avoiding uncontrollable gap risk from holding positions over the weekend. Mind the 10-hour time zone gap.

Trade safe, manage the tails, and let the Greeks work while you sleep.