To The Moon

Last night, gold saw violent intraday swings, briefly surging to $5,595.4/oz, setting yet another all-time high.

But sentiment flipped in an instant. Gold sold off sharply from the highs, plunging to an intraday low of $5,110.87, down more than 5.6%, marking the largest intraday drop since October 21 last year.

Fortunately, the scare passed without disaster. Gold eventually closed only 0.69% lower, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief.

Before the shock had fully faded, selling resumed today. Gold once again slumped more than 4.5% intraday, slicing through the $5,400, $5,300, and $5,200 psychological levels in quick succession, before bottoming out at $5,131.5.

The rapid sell-off hammered gold miners. $Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.,Ltd.(600988)$ plunged over 14% intraday, $Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd.(600547)$ fell more than 12%, and $ZIJIN MINING(02899)$ dropped over 10%.

Gold ETFs were hit just as hard. $MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ cratered 11.88% last night and slid another 10% in overnight trading; $CSOP Gold Futures Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07299)$ fell over 14% intraday. $VANECK GOLD MINERS ETF(GDX.AU)$ dropped more than 3.7% last night and was down over 5.5% at one point overnight today. The largest gold ETF, $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ , fell more than 3% overnight.

Short-gold ETFs, by contrast, saw rare explosive gains. $DB Gold Double Short Exchange Traded Notes(DZZ)$ soared 18% last night and added another 8.6% overnight. $MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(GDXD)$ jumped 12% last night and another 10% overnight.

So—does this violent volatility signal the end of the gold bull market?

First, there were three drivers behind last night’s shock:

1) Big Tech shock spilled over.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ tumbled 10%, the largest drop since March 2020, wiping out $357.4 billion in market value—the second-largest single-day loss in stock market history. Earnings showed record AI spending, but slowing growth in the core cloud business spooked investors, fueling fears that AI investments may take longer to pay off.
As a result, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.72%. Risk-off sentiment spread, investors sold precious metals to cover equity losses, and Bitcoin slid to a two-month low.

2) A firmer dollar.
Markets speculated that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Warsh is widely viewed as more traditional and less dovish, implying smaller rate cuts if appointed. Against this backdrop, the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.33% last night.

3) Overbought conditions finally bit.
Gold’s gains had become excessive — the maximum monthly rally was close to 30%, pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 90. In most cases, readings above 70 already signal overbought conditions.
Viewed through this lens, today’s sharp pullback looks like a normal technical correction rather than a trend break.

Looking ahead, the forces supporting gold haven’t disappeared — if anything, they’re intensifying. Just yesterday, U.S. President Trump threatened strikes against Iran, said he would impose tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, warned of revoking certification for all Canadian-made aircraft, and proposed a 50% tariff on Canadian planes sold in the U.S.

With the world increasingly unsettled and the old global order under strain, rebuilding trust will take time. Central banks continue to accelerate gold purchases. National Bank of Poland announced a plan to buy 150 tonnes of gold this year, far exceeding its 100-tonne purchase in 2025.

Beyond central banks, crypto heavyweight Tether has been buying 1–2 tonnes of gold per week, accumulating over 70 tonnes in 2025 to back and reserve its gold-linked stablecoin.
By purchase volume, Tether now ranks just behind the Polish central bank and the three largest ETFs.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the company holds around 140 tonnes of gold and plans to continue adding in the coming months, making it the largest known holder outside central banks, ETFs, and commercial banks.

Bottom line: the parabolic phase of this gold rally may be cooling off, but the structural drivers that underpin the long-term bull case remain firmly in place.

Gold-Related ETFs:

Investors bullish on gold may consider relevant ETFs. Among these, leveraged ETFs offer the highest volatility—for instance, $MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ is a 3x leveraged gold ETF suitable for short-term bets on continued price appreciation. However, it carries significant risk and is not recommended for ordinary investors.

Gold mining ETFs like $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ , $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ , and $iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF(RING)$ hold gold mining stocks as underlying assets, providing substantial volatility while maintaining relative stability.

Conservative investors may explore gold-linked ETFs like $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ or $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ , which track gold prices closely for greater stability and suitability for regular investments.

Those betting on gold declines can consider short ETFs such as $DB Gold Double Short Exchange Traded Notes(DZZ)$ , $MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(GDXD)$ , $Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares(JDST)$ , or $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares(DUST)$ .

Given the inherent risks of leveraged ETFs combined with short positions, ordinary investors should generally steer clear.