1. What matters most this quarter?
With revenue expected at $1.77B and transaction revenue softening, focus shifts to quality rather than headline growth.
Key areas:
Subscription and services stability at ~$723M
USDC yield contribution
Derivatives traction
Operating expense discipline
If recurring revenue mix rises further, valuation becomes less tied to spot volatility.
2. Does Bitcoin’s pullback help or hurt?
At ~$69K, Bitcoin is consolidating after a sharp unwind. If leverage has indeed flushed out and large holders are accumulating, volatility may compress before the next directional move.
For Coinbase, two scenarios:
Bull case
Stabilising BTC plus ETF flows revive retail and institutional activity into Q2.
Bear case
Muted volatility suppresses trading volumes despite price stability.
The structural question is whether 2025 marks Coinbase’s transition from cyclical exchange to diversified crypto infrastructure platform. If recurring revenue exceeds 45 to 50 percent sustainably, multiple expansion becomes more defensible even in range-bound crypto conditions.
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- EdwardHughes·02-12 19:45Spot on about recurring revenue reducing volatility risks. If subs hold up, Coinbase's multiple could expand nicely. [看涨]LikeReport