Nvidia Earnings: Can a GB300 Boom and Early Rubin Launch Crush the Skeptics?
Global AI chip leader $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
FY26Q4 Core Financial Indicators
– Revenue: Consensus estimate stands at $65.73 billion, representing a 67% increase YoY and 15% QoQ. The previous guidance was $65 billion.
– Gross Margin: GAAP gross margin consensus is 74.8%, up 1.8 percentage points YoY and 1.4 percentage points QoQ, matching the previous guidance. Non-GAAP gross margin consensus is 75%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY and 1.4 percentage points QoQ, also matching prior guidance.
– Net Income: GAAP net income is expected to reach $36.2 billion, up 64% YoY and 13% QoQ, against a previous guidance of $35.21 billion. Non-GAAP net income is projected at $37.24 billion, up 69% YoY and 17% QoQ, compared to the previous guidance of $36.73 billion.
Three Things to Watch
How are the GB300 volume ramp and Vera Rubin mass production pacing?
Fueled by the rapid rise of AI in recent years, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ has fundamentally transformed its core business from gaming to data centers. The market expects Nvidia's data center revenue to hit $59.8 billion this quarter, up 68% YoY and 17% QoQ. In contrast, gaming revenue is projected at just $4 billion, a mere fraction of the data center business.
Nvidia divides its data center segment into Compute and Networking. Since the GB200 cabinets began volume shipments in FY26Q1, both compute and networking revenues have advanced in tandem with accelerating volume. Specifically, NVLink scale-up, SpectrumX Ethernet, and QuantumX InfiniBand all achieved high double-digit growth last quarter. The latest Blackwell cabinet, the GB300, only began a true production ramp in FY26Q3 and is expected to drive accelerated growth in the data center segment this quarter. Management noted last quarter that inventory increased sequentially from $15 billion in Q2 to $19.8 billion to support the GB300 capacity ramp.
However, what the market cares about most in 2026 is the mass production timeline for the Vera Rubin series. On the supply side, SK Hynix showcased the world's first 16-high 48GB HBM4 product at CES early this year. Samsung has also announced official HBM4 shipments to clients, and $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ management recently stated their HBM4 shipments have been pulled forward to Q1. These signs suggest the Vera Rubin mass production timeline is accelerating, and we await management updates in this report.
Market expects accelerated growth in Q1 guidance with net profit aiming for the global top spot
A review of Nvidia's history shows actual revenue often significantly exceeds guidance. Given that current market consensus does not deviate much from the guidance, there is a strong possibility of a significant beat.
Furthermore, combined with recent explosive guidance from memory companies like $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ , $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ , and $Kioxia Holdings (285A.JP)$ , as well as semiconductor ATE equipment firms like $Advantest (6857.JP)$ and $Teradyne (TER.US)$ , the market is equally expectant of strong guidance from $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ for the next quarter (FY27Q1).
Currently, the consensus for Nvidia's FY27Q1 revenue is $71.53 billion, up 62% YoY, with Non-GAAP net income reaching $40.62 billion, a 104% YoY increase. This scale of profit would dominate the global Q1 earnings chart. Therefore, regarding this quarterly report, the market may be even more focused on the guidance for the next quarter.
How will memory price hikes and the Vera Rubin ramp affect future gross margins?
Rising memory prices have not only impacted companies with large consumer electronics exposure like $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ but also crushed the gross margins of some data center-related companies like $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ . With new capacity from the DRAM giants not expected to be released at scale until 2027, the market is concerned about whether memory price hikes will impact Nvidia's subsequent gross margins.
Throughout FY25, the market consistently criticized the decline in Nvidia's gross margins, which was primarily due to issues encountered during the year-long ramp-up of Blackwell cabinets. With the seven chips of the Rubin platform expected to ship in FY27Q3, we look forward to management's response on whether the margin impact from the Vera Rubin cabinet ramp-up will be as severe as the previous cycle.
Summary
For an $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ besieged by narratives of "H200 export bans," "in-house substitution," and "Big Short" bets, the only path forward is to prove itself repeatedly through financial results.
This year's performance primarily hinges on the volume ramp-up of the GB300 and Vera Rubin. Issues regarding H200 exports to China and short-term gross margin volatility are merely noise; ultimately, the Vera Rubin mass production timeline will determine whether the company can surpass the robust guidance of $500 billion in revenue over two years.
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