1. Would sovereign accumulation tighten supply?
Yes, if implemented, steady government buying would reduce liquid float. Bitcoin’s true tradable supply is already constrained by long-term holders and lost coins. A multi-year accumulation programme would act like a structural buyer, similar to central-bank gold purchases, gradually absorbing sell-side liquidity and increasing scarcity. The effect would be slow but cumulative rather than immediate.
2. Marginal vs ETF flows and macro cycles?
In the near term, still marginal. ETF inflows/outflows and global liquidity conditions dominate price discovery because they move capital at institutional scale within weeks, not years. Rate expectations, USD strength, and risk appetite remain the primary drivers. A sovereign plan changes narrative, but ETFs and macro determine volatility.
3. Structural bid or relief bounce?
Currently closer to a relief rally within a fragile trend. One proposal does not yet alter demand structurally, especially with execution uncertainty. A true structural bid would require multiple nations adopting reserves alongside sustained institutional inflows.
Bottom line: bullish long term if sovereign adoption spreads, but this rebound alone does not confirm a regime shift yet.
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